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Valued Member
Canada
212 Posts 
Has anyone ever published information on the estimated survival rates of Canadian coins? Any thoughts would be appreciated.Using an example of the 1945 Canadian Silver Dollar, where the approximate mintage was 38,000, how many are left.20,000, 5,000, 2,000? I am curious as to collector's opinions.


Pillar of the Community
Canada
727 Posts 
Really any numbers someone says is just a guess. Very hard to get an accurate answer. For something like the 1945 dollar, there are a lot of them out there. PCGS has 530 certified. I would think ICCS has multiples more certified. Then there are still even more that are raw. I would suspect that a majority of them are still out there as these were never heavily circulated but largely collected and hoarded. I suppose one way to estimate is to get pop reports from all the major TPG's, then keep track of what percentage of 1945's you see for sale in those holders.

Valued Member
Canada
90 Posts 
As of 2009 (so 13 years ago), ICCS had over 2100 certified 45 dollars. There must be many more by now. Jan

Pillar of the Community
Canada
784 Posts 
We could guestimate the survivability of circulated coins easier by studying the number of coins remaining from a smaller set. Take Newfoundland coins for example. In 1885 there were 8,000 Newfoundland 10 cent coins struck. So how many are left? Good question. I have 1 with the date barely readable. If you knew how many were left you might get a reasonable rate of survivability by dividing TheNumberRemaining/TheNumberMinted. That % would be specific to Newfoundland 10 cent coins from 1885 but its going to be a realistic general survival rate for that time period.
Calculating the Exact survivability rate would be impossible with too many factors to consider such as year minted, hoarding activity, availability of similar coinage at the time of circulation, visitors to the country, the melt value of silver throughout the years, demand for silver, amount of circulation, durability, hype, attractiveness, invasion, etc. There are way too many factors.

Valued Member
Canada
271 Posts 
Based on what I know about survival rates for various US issues (gold and silver), and based on the certification totals (including duplication) and the number of uncertified coins out there, anywhere between 10% and 15% would seems reasonable. It's a guess, but it's not made up entirely out of thin air. Feel free to challenge it.

Pillar of the Community
Canada
4640 Posts 
First year of issue, last year of issue, change of monarchs, alloy or metallic change and length between last issue ALL affect those remaining. Also, published mint probs or scarcity just after issue affect those remaining. It's anybody's guess and some of the above may have 6070% remaining and in drawers or albums or safety deposit boxes.

Valued Member
Canada
90 Posts 
As mentioned there are way too many things to consider to estimate survivability. What is clear is that the rate varies greatly depending on the coin. Using the data from the 2009 ICCS report I mentioned above: 1945 dollar: 2125 certified, or approximately 5.6% of the total minted. 1885 Newfie 10 cent: 65 certified, or approximately 0.8% of the total minted. The difference is substantial, but it still understates the actual difference as virtually all of the 1945 dollars are in grade VF or better, while virtually all of the 1885 Newfie dimes are in grade VF or worse.

Moderator
Australia
14959 Posts 
Unless a coin is so rare, and so valuable, that every single known example is well documented and traceable by auction catalogue or museum collection list, then any kind of estimate of absolute survival numbers is going to be mildly educated guesswork. Especially in a country where meticulous records of official coin withdrawal and destruction, by date, are not kept. Quote: We could guestimate the survivability of circulated coins easier by studying the number of coins remaining from a smaller set. Take Newfoundland coins for example. In 1885 there were 8,000 Newfoundland 10 cent coins struck. So how many are left? Good question. I have 1 with the date barely readable. If you knew how many were left you might get a reasonable rate of survivability by dividing TheNumberRemaining/TheNumberMinted. That % would be specific to Newfoundland 10 cent coins from 1885 but its going to be a realistic general survival rate for that time period.
Calculating the Exact survivability rate would be impossible with too many factors to consider such as year minted, hoarding activity, availability of similar coinage at the time of circulation, visitors to the country, the melt value of silver throughout the years, demand for silver, amount of circulation, durability, hype, attractiveness, invasion, etc. There are way too many factors. There is one additional factor not mentioned: the absolute number, and the proportion of the population, who are coin colllectors. You can take a survival rate statistic for one coin and extrapolate it out to other similar coins, but the very existence of coin collectors complicates things, because coin collectors are the only people who actually care about and are interested in singling out specific kinds of coins and separating them from the general mixture of circulating coinage. This means that, in a country like Canada which has a historically high proportion of coin collectors and has had since at least the early 20th century, the survival rate of "rare coins" remains almost constant, because almost all of them are in the hands of coin collectors who know they are rare and will try to preserve them, while the survival rate of "common coins" gradually declines over time, as coin collectors don't care as much about them so more and more of them drift into the melting pots. It is a selfcorrecting problem. Eventually, "common" coins will become rare enough that coin collectors will try harder to preserve them.
Don't say "infinitely" when you mean "very"; otherwise, you'll have no word left when you want to talk about something really infinite.  C. S. Lewis

Valued Member
Canada
56 Posts 
You can look at how many examples of that coin are certified, and estimated percentage that are graded. If you can figure that out, it shouldn't be too hard to have an approximate number. Anyways, there are a specific number of estimated 1969 large date dimes left in circulation, but who knows? Maybe it's different.

Pillar of the Community
Canada
1806 Posts 
Also don't forget that many certified coins get regraded. Some get regraded because people want a PCGS holder or an ICCS holder. Some get regraded because people like Cook of the Cook Collection just didn't like holders. I suspect many are regraded more than once. I would guess that the graded population of say 2600 is about 1.5x to 2x what is actually sitting in a holder today.

Moderator
Australia
14959 Posts 
Yes, sorry, but TPG population reports are inherently unreliable from an absolute survival rate standpoint, due to the crackout game: people resubmit the same coin again and again in the hope of attaining a higher grade, which inflates the total count. The TPGs try to track this, but don't always succeed. As a result, there are numerous examples of coins where the total TPG pop report is higher than the original mintage. To make the pop reports more objectively useful, you'd need to have some kind of objective measurement of the degree of crackoutification in each coin series. And if the TPGs themselves don't really know this, I don't know how anybody else could figure it out.
Don't say "infinitely" when you mean "very"; otherwise, you'll have no word left when you want to talk about something really infinite.  C. S. Lewis

Pillar of the Community
Canada
1806 Posts 
I personally have cracked maybe 100 to 200. I have cracked quite a few twice. Most of these had a nice ICCS grade, I sent them to PCGS, did not like how they graded them, and sent them back to ICCS to get the original grade back. I have also bought a bunch in NGC and ICCS holders and sent them to PCGS. I have also cracked a few to remove lacquer.


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