Sideways Facing Jefferson Nickels.

Many of us collect Jeffersons already. Already War Nickels are collectible. So I am not sure what you are asking exactly. Perhaps you meant to ask "What would drive up the value of Jefferson nickels?"...Apparently, even the 2009 nickel is being hoarded due to low mintage...although as we all know mintage figures alone are not enough to determine true value or actual rarity....

A composition change as well as another few decades of inflation would drive the price up and encourage hoarding.

I think it's a pretty close parallel to wheat cents, but minus the key dates. It's a popular, widely collected series, and circulated common dates will be found in circulation for a long time (even 50 years after then change!) and won't be worth much over face. Like wheat cents, only one side changes, and the difference in value over face will be as much about the composition change that comes down the road.

I feel like the Jefferson nickel has been a collector's item since 1938 when they started making them. I have enjoyed collecting them for the last fifteen years. War Nickels and five or ten of the more key dates will always have a small premium. The best answer is the "all of the above", but metal value is the only way all of them from 1938-2003 will ever be a collector's item with a premium.

Since the design is obsolete, I personally think that the sideways Jefferson's will start disappearing from circulation based on their design, the years they were minted, and perhaps their metal content.

To answer your last question, yes. That's one thing I am wondering about (how many need to be gone from circulation to the point where buying them is one of the very few ways to own them, without having to search through hundreds and hundreds of boxes of nickels).

My choice is "Only if the nickel is discontinued and retired."

Political pressure will never allow Jefferson to be removed from the nickel and I honestly think the government will figure out that composition change is a lost cause. Some of the other choices may be favourable, but I am optimistic that they will cease minting the nickel long before the other factors come into play.

Once the nickel is retired it will be hoarded. Not everyone will do it, but the number of those that do will be more than enough to drain the circulating supply in short time.

Of course, this is my opinion; I could be wrong.

Thanks for the clarification. Typically when a design changes it seems to take about 15 to 20 years for the bulk of the old design to disappear from circulation unless something intervenes to change the rate such as a change in composition which will make them disappear faster, or a major recession/depression which will make them stick around longer. The Buffalo nickels were still commonly encountered in the 50's but were pretty much gone by the early 60's. Wheat cents were still common into the mid 70's. The zinc cents were copper plated to help make them indistinguishable from the copper cents but by 2008 the percentage of copper cents in circulation had dropped to under 20%, then the economic collapse in 2008 returned many coins to circulation and the percentage rose to around 30%. It has been falling since then.

With this in mind I would expect the sideways Jefferson's will still be commonly encountered until at least 2020 and won't really gone until about 2027. This assumes no noticeable composition change. With a major change I would move that up to within five to six years after the change is made. For example if they switch to a steel composition in 2014 (which is about the earliest it could happen) I would expect most of them to be gone by 2020. Followed by the pulling of the rest of the copper nickel jeffersons within the next couple of years and all the circulating nickels being steel by 2024.

OT: Just Carl made an interesting observation, comparing almost all Bicentennials to the nickel. However, I am betting that just maybe that 50 years after the bicentennial (when I am 59!) Bicentennials will finally really take off. But, I digress...