My Reasons Why The Canadian Coin Market Is Still 'Depressed'

A lot of money that would have been spent on circulation coins in the last few years has gone to NCLT. Probably more of a factor than PM prices.

I think prices peaked in 2007, and since then we have slowly been on a down turn with demand; and a price correction.

My common sense theory.

1) Price Guides ; I feel that people looking at the current Charlton price guide, should realize that these prices are a reflection of what has just happened. They should be considered a history book, and not a current price guide. If I look at the currently price coin in the catalogue listed $140.00 , and I buy if for less. Then than could be reflected in the next years catalogue as a coin that has depreciated. This really changed in the 2007 catelogue, with over 95% of the data used from online auctions etc,,

2) Demand ; Overall economic conditions since 2006 have not been that great here in North America. This would drive demand down. Housing market, stock market, jobs, etc.. Coin collecting gets the back burner for now.

2) The CND vs USD ; over the past 13 years has been a real issue in export markets. The same would apply to selling Canadian coins into the USA. A coin valued at $100. USD could be purchased for a half that in Cad. So while over the past decade now, the US market would consider our coins priced 50% higher or more just based on that. No change on coin price, just a change on dollar value. This alone, has kill a lot of export markets in Canada.

3) Trends ; I hear some people talking about an increase in early Elizabeth and NCLT. This would have some impact on my style of collecting for sure. The demand would drop out etc..

4) Supply ; It may be the case that there just too many coins still coming out of old collections somewhere. I think this is probably the most likely scenario. The supply is there, and it's healthy. I don't think too many people are dumping there collections on the market at lower than purchase prices. I think the opposite is happening. Smaller coin dealers, private sales, etc,,, all will contribute to supply , at lower retail costs. NO overhead, just a little profit.

I know when I started buying coins, I normally did not want to pay more than what was listed in the book. But I can see that being a problem today. Today I use my personal catelogue of coins I own, as my price guide. I have bought coins for 100, that I can now get for 60. So in those cases , I buy as many cheaper ones as I can get, and spread out my damage over several coins of the same grade. It's the same thing really, but in many cases it put that particular coin back into the currently valued area; eats more of money and increases my risk.

I DON'T know if this is a good thing or not!

The history of prices may tell something of the future too.

I think in general MS 64 , 65, 66 etc.. will generally have the best changes for price increase based on grade rarity. This is has been the history of Uncirculated coins since the first charlton book in 1952.

I think MS 60 - 63 will remain stagnant for a long time and increase very slowly along with circulated coins.

I think varieties will expand more and more. 1952 saw 16 Silver dollars (1935 - 1952) today there are a cool 41 plus to collect.

I think there will be another grading advancement in the future that will spark the community to make changes once again. TPG has been a huge hit in coin collecting and I think advancements there will help drive demand and prices. There are only so many coins out there, and who knows , maybe every coin pre 52 gets it's own digital signature and existence. There are no more, there will be no more, and you get to sell coin # 454; 10 Cents ; 1947 ; MS63, with multiple TPG certs. and anybody can view your collecting by given them the coin numbers.

I also think that anybody collecting Mint State ; TPG; pre 52 coins are investing in coins; and just like any other market , there are changes and up and downs to go thru.

Demographics is a big factor: more supply coming from auctions and estate sales (number 4 above) with fewer and fewer new people collecting.

With the ARP it is much harder today to start collecting circulation coins just for fun.

So coin prices will likely stagnate or slowly decline across all grades. It is just simple supply and demand...

I think it's a number of things, some of which have already been well described.

Go to any coin show in Vancouver, and also check out the people who show up at coin club meetings. There are hardly any new collectors, and of the new ones, nearly none under age 30.

On ebay, many of the coins listed are placed there by dealers, with book prices. They re-list and re-list the same coins. I agree with the statement that between dealers, collectors with large blocks of coins, and hoarders, there are probably more than enough coins to more than go around. There is a glut.

I've seen people on here say they keep spending $ on RCM issues, which does take away from the pre-1952 money pool. I've talked with a dealer who sends a lot of RCM coins back into the melt pool, whether from the 1970's or current. No one should expect to get their money back on RCM issues, given how many there are every year now.

There seem to be a steady stream of coins from US sellers. I would guess, as with other things, there are increasing estate sales that include some coins. They appear to be largely mid-grade and occasionally better, but are selling at far less on average than Canadian dealers will offer.

I'm not so sure about the high end MS-64 etc. coins, because I doubt there are many collectors in that price bracket. I was looking for Canada 50 cent pieces from 1902, 03, 04, and 05, and generally settled on VF30 to EF45 coins. I was shown a lovely MS64 1904 by a dealer, but paying that price point makes no sense for me given the league I play in, and the composition of the rest of my collection.

If anything, I would bet on relatively rare coins, and coins that have top notch eye appeal, no matter what the grade.

I'll echo the statement that the RCM's modern issues are sucking up a lot of collector money. It's just a matter of time until the RCM alienates their clients by releasing too many issues for them to keep up with. It's already starting to happen. Just my humble opinion.

You're partially right, AgCoin.

Another part is simply the way society looks at collecting. I know very few people under 30 that collect anything, let alone anything with a sense of history and need of preservation. Everything today is disposable. Our store is located right beside a video game store and it couldn't be more eye-opening. People come in, plunk down cash for a game and two weeks later, he's buying that game back at a fraction of the price and reselling it. Not only are these young people more interested in modern pursuits, they have no sense of permanence. Despite the limited income so many people are facing, we are a disposable society.

Even the appliances we buy no longer last more than a year or two -- made of cheap parts and sold to people who have zero interest in fixing these items, so in the dump they go. I'm of the belief that this stems naturally from the post-baby boom era, where people are used to having, so nothing is sacred.

I see it developing with my three year old nephew. His parents have bought him every toy under the sun since the day he was born, and you know what? He has NO favorite toy -- nothing that he carries around with him all the time that provides a sense of comfort.

Having said that, I'm sure collecting will come around. It'll cycle through and become something worthwhile again. Right now, its the baby boomer generation that's retiring. Many of them were very casually into coin collecting as a kid and the nostalgia of it will kick it up a bit. With that, I hope, will come a modernization of the hobby. I'd like to see a more booming presence online for coin collectors. ebay, as a brand, is just too diluted to make numismatics stand out, but that's another conversation.

Thanks universal coins, those are some great points! I think that it is the younger generation in which need to pick it up and start collecting.

At one time or another in the past 30 years or so, most of us got taken by the RCM and their empty promises.
sooner or later, hopefully sooner, it will backfire at them and hardly anyone will buy their garbage.
Recently someone in our town offered me some RCM sets at over double the going price. I suggested that I would not knowingly make a deal to loose money. "Do you know what you are talking about?" was the answer. " these sets are worth a lot more and are a super investment. Just read all the RCM's ads, they must know".
Needless to say, I did not buy.