I know that we discussed this very point with Jay Turner the NGC finalizer at the USMNA meeting and he was very concerned about my theory.
So far only ICG (the 4th "best"
TPG approved by
ebay) has begun encapsulating counterfeits - I keep asking them if they are interested in dividing "counterfeit" into something more descriptive - at least into contemporary and Numismatic. They seem interested but lack the technical capability and more importantly the financial incentive to do so.
So when a designation by Class will be available may not be in the very near future.
Regarding Class 2 - I agree that the decision of the experts is still out. That does not mean however that any number of experts (who are in the coin business) will ever convince me that I am wrong about these coins as a group unless their reply is based on solid science and historic evidence. I first heard this story from someone who had absolutely nothing to gain financially. So far most of the push-back has come from bigger US dealers who stand to loose a very great deal of money if a large number of their sales are found to be counterfeit.
I got a far more favorable response from the Mexican dealers and from individual collectors at the meeting several of whom said they have always wondered how these 8Rs could still be so common. For people who have wondered this my theory makes sense to them. They (collectors) also like the "acid test" of making gold the criteria for the final decision. It becomes purely scientific and unbiased.
I also know that based on XRF tests done to date that the number of gold bearing Charles IIII 8Rs is well BELOW half of the examples tested. The same results do not occur when you sample Go, Do, Zs or Mo Cap and Ray coins made before 1840. Even the Ferdinand VII coins have gold.
So why do some of the big dealers favor giving a pass to the CAROLUS coins which do not have gold? I of course am testing only coins I own or have access to and I have never before reported the macro-results of my XRF tests to anyone. I clearly recognize that the threat that potentially over half of the Charles IIII 8Rs of Mexico City may not quite be genuine represents a serious threat to those who have sold them. Perhaps their response is due in part to the fact that their preliminary tests show NO GOLD as well. Even though they use only handheld XRF testers - they should be finding coins that contain OVER 1/10th percent of gold (the limit of their guns). I have gotten tests ABOVE 2% for coins I believe are real.
People that have the most to lose would be expected to complain the loudest. I would prefer that thousands of XRF tests are done. Let the results prove that I am correct or incorrect.
I also recognize that I am not one of the moneyed elite and that my "proof" can and may simply be ignored by experts whose credibility and pocketbooks might suffer. All I have ever wanted is a fair hearing of the evidence and a decision based on
scientific and historical fact and not "credentialed or institutional expertise" which is based on a hidden agenda. In numismatics "opinions" have been paraded as fact for far too long.
I am not one of the people that takes the short cut and says if the coins contain the correct amount of silver and look good they can simply be treated as real. That position was taken as early as 1960 by dealers who knew about the silver forgeries but simply could not tell them apart from the genuine item.
NOW WE CAN TELL.
Remember a couple things - proving the world was round and not located at the center of the Universe was a theory discredited by thousands of experts who had NO scientific proof. The status quo held sway for centuries. The experts in fact killed the proponents of that theory originally.
I would personally advise caution on the part of collectors. Buy coins that DO NOT look like Class 2 varieties - pretty simple. If you want to really be safe have your coins tested and return ALL of them that do NOT CONTAIN SUFFICIENT GOLD as a trace contaminant.
Then you are safe no matter what.
Another thing I also agree on is that the TPGs will slab these coins as genuine at present. Of course they also slab as genuine coins found in Riddell's book (see the 1829 Zs discussion) and Sheffield Plate coins. We know that happens.
The reason TPGs do this is simple and logical. TPGs lack precision of expertise that someone who has devoted decades to only one type of coin develops. Their authenticators are good perhaps great or even the best in the world but they are faced with hundreds of different types of coins a day and they have only seconds to determine if they are real and to assign a grade. When I worked for
ebay as an authenticator I typically took up to 20 minutes to study a coin I was not overly familiar with before making a final vote. On disputed issues I sometimes spent longer. That can only be done using UNPAID experts. The TPGs also lack many of the scientific tools needed to make an informed decision about a coin in person. Remember that as a rule of thumb - THEY NEVER EVEN WEIGH COINS. They are trying to do their best while still turning a profit. A specific gravity test takes about 2-3 times as long as a grader is given with each coin. SG is NEVER tested either. XRF tests to a 20PPM level take hours to run and nearly an equal number of hours to fully interpret. That is why XRF tests are costly.
So the TPGs face the double edged sword of corporate financial reality - they want to do it right but they also MUST NOT spend more than they take in. They are also influenced, as we know, by the big dealers who submit most coins (grade-flation proves this)-
The TPGs DO NOT "defecate where they eat".
I on the other hand have no such concerns - being retired and inherently independent of outside pressure - I say exactly what I see as correct and to heck with whose delicate feelings are hurt, whose toes get stepped on or whose OX gets gored. That may not be politically correct or even nice but as someone who got a 3-5 years left to live - death sentence 16 plus years ago -
I really do not care. 
Posted 11/09/2014 7:39 pm
