A Case For Modern Coins

A worthwhile read, especially if you collect modern coins.

A few years ago, when I started writing about numismatic topics, I felt that we were in the midst of a upheaval in collector attitudes towards contemporary products. This transition is now well underway. Where it takes us, one cannot hope to predict, but I am sure many will agree with me that the Mints and those of us in the hobby and trade will see the rise and fall in the fortunes of certain coin series and collecting strategies. I support the collecting of moderns- as I do with classic, world coins, tokens and medals, and anything numismatic that suits your taste... It's all worthwhile to me.

I've really enjoyed your writing on a wide range of numismatic topics.

The idea that a transition is underway is a point I've been trying to make gently for decades now. I'd had always believed people would see this change coming and try to get ahead of the curve but for various reasons most either didn't see it or simply didn't want to get on board. This means the explosive change is now occurring in superslow motion that will soon enough envelope everything. It must happen because of demographics and the nature of supply and demand. Old classic coin collections will be flooding on the market for decades because they are owned principally by baby boomers who will be retiring and leaving the hobby over the next twenty years. Meanwhile almost no modern coin collections will become available because owners of these tend to be younger. As younger people take the place of the older hobby participants they won't have the disdain for moderns that older collectors have and most won't be able to afford the older coins. The combination of lower demand and higher supply for old coins will force the prices to find a new equilibrium. Concurrently lower supplies and higher demand will force the prices of moderns higher until they achieve a new supply/ demand equilibrium.

While this process is in slow motion now, it won't necessarily stay in slow motion. Macroeconomic forces can conspire to hasten or postpone the mid-point of the change but the change will occur. When complete the change will put a new face on all aspects of the hobby including most of the participants and it will feel as though it had been very sudden.

The future always unfolds chaotically and unpredictably. Small changes in one area can have massive repercussions in others. Some of the major events that will shape this future haven't even happened yet.

I think the next twenty years will be one of the best times ever to be a coin collector. It will be turbulent and full of opportunities and traps. Collectors will probably do well in all arenas because the supply will be available and/ or prices will be increasing. There will be coins, tokens, and medals that can be assembled into very important collections that are either comprehensive or have great appreciation.

As always most speculators will do much less well.

Something about this makes me feel that certain kind of evil happiness.

I don't see any complexity in the math for Modern collectors. Rarity is rarity, and high-grade Business Strike Moderns are a sufficient Condition Rarity to be extremely collectable into the future when they become something you don't see in circulation often.

Then they'll be the Classics, and collecting will go on. Only the coins change, not the attitude of collectors.

I'm one of those Modern scoffers. They're not for me. That doesn't change the truth that the ASE is the most beautiful design ever minted in the US, and the rest of the world as a whole has taken NIFC and Commem design to an overall level not before seen worldwide. Glorious coinage everywhere from Belarus to Micronesia. It's never been better than this for a Modern collector.