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 Replies: 21 / Views: 3,358 |
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Valued Member
United States
156 Posts |
I wasn't able to find this topic elsewhere, so I was hoping to get some discussion from the forum members.
Let's say someone came to you and said that they were looking at purchasing a certain coin type, not as a collector, but as an investor. They plan to hold the coin for at least ten years.
Based on their budget, they could either buy a key date in VF25 or a common date in MS66.
Of the two, and all other things being equal, would you still recommend the key date over the common date that is in much better condition? Edited by Afab67
04/07/2015 08:54 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5855 Posts |
I think it really depends on the actual coin. Some coins, like most Eisenhower dollars and many Barber coins, are very hard to find in MS66 condition. So a MS66 Barber half dollar, even a pretty "common" date, is still going to have significant value. On the other hand, most modern coinage is minted in the hundreds of millions and isn't going to be worth much as an investment even in MS70 condition. Personally, I find key dates (even in poor condition) to be much more interesting to collect than common coins in nice condition. But that's just me... |
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Valued Member
United States
449 Posts |
Key dates for the most part will hold their value over time and tend to appreciate in value. Supply and Demand.
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Pillar of the Community
United Kingdom
856 Posts |
To be honest, I'm not sure investing in coins is a brilliant idea. Yes, coins I bought 10 years ago have risen in value. But I haven't calculated whether they have outperformed simple inflation, in that many things now cost and sell for more than they did in 1995 or 2005.. And, solely from a British perspective, the emphasis here has moved from rarer coins to condition. In other words, it's not always easy to say what will be popular and sell well in the future. As an example, I know a coin that was in a major collection during the 1970s. Prior to that it had been published to illustrate the type in what is considered to be the most comprehensive classification of the denomination. But ... it's been sat on a dealer's site for three years now .. even at a 20% discount. Why? Because despite being rare and having a very good provenance it's not such an attractive coin and people nowadays just don't seem to be as interested in coins unless they have, shall we say. 'eye appeal'. Nobody knows what the coin market will do over the next 10 years. And I can't second guess the UK market, let alone the US which is very different. But my general feeling is that unless you spend some fairly serious money on a top grade coin there are no guarantees. My advice, which isn't really what you asked for I realise(!) is therefore buy the coin you like most. You will have the pleasure of owning it for a few years. And if it brings in a profit when you come to sell, well done! If not? Consider the 'loss' in terms of a small fee you've paid each year to have the enjoyment of its company!  |
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Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21788 Posts |
This topic being in the main coin forum,
I tend to think outside the 'square'.
I would go for a rare type or a pattern,
but it really depends on what YOU want, not what I think.
The published guides to market values should provide most of the answer you are looking for.
Then again, I am a type collector of modern coins and a milled medieval and ancient coin collector.
So far as ancient coins are concerned, it is more or less commonly accepted that a common coin in 'as struck' condition is preferable to a rare type in fine condition for the same denomination.
Also depends on what metal, for example gold vs. bronze. I would prefer a common date St Gaudens to a 1909 VDB 'S' penny, but even that depends on condition vs value.
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Moderator
 United States
23522 Posts |
Quote:
Of the two, and all other things being equal, would you still recommend the key date over the common date that is in much better condition?
If all else is equal then demand tilts the equation. I choose which is more liquid in the marketplace, and recommend that one. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
604 Posts |
IMO investing in coins to sell and make a profit down the road is a gamble and unless you are able to get a sought after coin for cheap I don't see it being easy.
On a personal choice I would go for the coin that has more eye appeal simply because I want a coin that I will enjoy looking at.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
11951 Posts |
If only we knew what the coin market was going to do in the future. In the past, key date coin have done well. But if you look at the 1909 S VDB, it has been coming down in the past few years. Even the RedBook that just came out (2016) list a EF at $1,150. The 2013 RedBook list EF at $1300. I see this in the real world too. I have bought coins in the past that have done very well, as far as increasing in price. Most of those were better date coins in better condition. Or from cherry picking from dealers, dealers that did not know what they had. The best money I have made on coins, was by buying silver coins when silver was low, over 20 years ago. If we all knew where the bottom silver and gold was going to be, the best thing to do would be to buy as much as you can. I like cherry picking junk silver boxes, trying to get nice looking full rim coins. As I am typing this, in a local coin shop, a customer is selling 200 1oz silver rounds that he bought years ago ...at $6.00 a coin. He is more than doubling his money. He has been doing this amount twice a week for a long time. |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts |
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To be honest, I'm not sure investing in coins is a brilliant idea.  And that is exactly what I'd tell that person. |
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Valued Member
 United States
156 Posts |
This is very interesting. I had been led to believe that rarity almost always trumped condition when it came to coin collectors, but I am getting the distinct feeling from the group that isn't necessarily so when looking at coins by type.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
7390 Posts |
I think historical rarity with provenance pedigree is the way to go for a blue chip single coin investment imho ...but not cheap
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5855 Posts |
Just to paraphrase what I said earlier, I do think that rarity is the most important factor. It's just that there is a thing called "conditional rarity" which means that some coins are extremely hard to find in top condition.
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Moderator
United States
188770 Posts |
Quote:
To be honest, I'm not sure investing in coins is a brilliant idea. This.  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
7390 Posts |
I totally disagree. I see coin investment like art. The common stuff might be nice to look at on the wall and will always sell at low or moderate prices but top tier art or coins will almost always appriciate in time. The trick is seeing the future and acting in the present. Imho
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Moderator
United States
188770 Posts |
The thing is that I will never benefit from any price increase. All of my coins are for keeps. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
6370 Posts |
Quote:
The thing is that I will never benefit from any price increase. All of my coins are for keeps. And any increase in price is butter on top. |
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Replies: 21 / Views: 3,358 |
Posted 04/07/2015 09:23 am
