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 Replies: 16 / Views: 3,260 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3546 Posts |
I read my ANA 09/2016 'The Numismatist' and realized that I now have a bunch of additional work to do: rechecking all of those MS rolls of LHCs that I thought were essentially a waste of time and more than likely worthless. Here's the actual clip of a very recent article written by David Lange [Research Director, Numismatic Guaranty Corporation (NGC)] taken from this same 'The Numismatist' specifically referencing the 1962D LHC MS67 Red:  |
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3546 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3546 Posts |
And so that one doesn't have to waste a lot of time hunting in the past for comparative data, just 10 years ago this same 1962D LHC MS67 Red coin back on 07/05/2006 sold for only $ 299.00 in a NGC slab: https://coins.ha.com/itm/lincoln-ce...?type=NGC407My, how times have changed. Why didn't I stock up then?  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
6370 Posts |
Because no one thought they would be worth anything because registry collecting was not a existent yet.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4085 Posts |
Sounds like a bubble to me. While I realize finding really nice examples of Memorials is harder than you'd think, there's also way too many rolls of Memorials out there to command those kinds of prices.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2271 Posts |
People have no clue just how tough many of the memorials are in really nice condition. These were made by the billions from worn tired dies and shoveled into circulation because no one cared. It's true that billion were set aside but almost all of these are the same sort of garbage; struck from worn poorly hubbed dies and scratched. Very few people have ever paid them any serious mind so they don't even know the best examples are in mint sets and some of the mint set coins are tough in nice Gem condition. The toughest of these is probably the '84-P. If you want a nice well made coin with pleasing surfaces you'll need to look through about 800 1984 mint sets. This coin could be more available in rolls since I don't have much experience with this datebut it's unlikely. Usually the best examples go into mint sets.
Time don't fly, it bounds and leaps.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
5668 Posts |
So I guess I need to search through my rolls of BU Lincolns and get them bulk graded before the bubble bursts....
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4085 Posts |
I get scarce but you can buy a 66RD for under $100. Just don't paying that kind of premium for one grade higher. Reminds me of baseball cards and beanie babies.
Edited by KenKat
08/27/2016 11:02 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3058 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2271 Posts |
Quote:
I get scarce but you can buy a 66RD for under $100. Just don't paying that kind of premium for one grade higher. Reminds me of baseball cards and beanie babies. The exact same situation exists with Indian cents and some Morgan dollars but people don't seem to notice that. The ONLY real difference is lots of people collect Indian cents and Morgan dollars but very few people are serious about memorial cents. As proof of this just look at the junk that masquerades as Gems in 1984 penny holders. Really junky looking coins are graded MS-65 because true Gems are so hard to find. If you do find a true Gem it won't cost much unless it's in a holder and even then it might be cheap. If people cared about memorial cents as much as they care about wheaties then Gems would sell for far more. In many cases they'd sell for far more than the wheaties because they are far rarer than the older coins. Time don't fly, it bounds and leaps.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
94367 Posts |
Rarer than the older coins? When they're available by the bag?  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2271 Posts |
Quote:
Rarer than the older coins? When they're available by the bag? Something like the '57-D wheatie cent is probably about 4 times as common as the '71-S cent but this isn't what I'm talking about. Nearly half of the '57-D cents survive mostly in XF while fewer than 20% of the '71-S survive mostly in VF and in cull condition but this isn't what I'm talking about either. Many of the memorial cents come pretty ratty and this applies to few '71-S cents that were saved in rolls and bags while a good percentage of the '57-D cents come pretty nice. Most of the older coins are readily available in Gem and this even applies to tough dates like the '31-S and the semi-keys. Even some key dates are available in Gem where a few of the memorials are not. Yes, generally you have to get up to pretty high grades before the moderns are really scarce but if you ever tried an "easy" one like the '84 with nice attractive surfaces you'd know what I'm talking about. Most of the so called Gems you see of this date are really pretty ugly. Time don't fly, it bounds and leaps.
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Valued Member
United States
314 Posts |
I don't know much about this, but I do find it fascinating. It seems that there is a true quantum leap between 66 and 67 for many dates. The question for investment purposes is whether this quest for "none better" coins will advance and perhaps even get stronger, or fade. If it fades, spending $5K for a 40 year old coin with a mintage of billions could look a little risky. But when the population for the coin in question is 100 or less, it could make sense.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
666 Posts |
Excellent points Centsei.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2271 Posts |
Quote:
I don't know much about this, but I do find it fascinating. It seems that there is a true quantum leap between 66 and 67 for many dates. The question for investment purposes is whether this quest for "none better" coins will advance and perhaps even get stronger, or fade. If it fades, spending $5K for a 40 year old coin with a mintage of billions could look a little risky. But when the population for the coin in question is 100 or less, it could make sense. I fear it must fade. It's hard to imagine hundreds and hundreds of people who collect the coins only in the highest grades while every other modern goes begging no matter how scarce. It's not impossible but people collecting based only on the opinion of TPG's without regard to other collectors or a likely route to their passion seems improbable. I believe that eventually there willbe as much demand for memorioal cents as there is for wheaties or indians and when this happens rare memorials will become valuable whether they are needed for registry sets or not. I also think we'll see a great deal more attention paid to things like strike on poorly struck issues and surfaces on issues that come with poor surfaces. If there were lots of collectors for these coins then there would be a more diverse array of tastes and demand for them. Moderns are in their infancy and it's going to take time for them to shake out. Right now there's very little demand for rare varieties or rare conditions and most buyers are primarily looking for very high grades. Keep in mind though that some of these buyers know exactly what they are doing and are trying to form that types of sets that will be in demand. So long as the numbers of collectors for circulated coins, MS-60's, and nice choice and Gem sets continues to increase from their low levels the top end of the market will do fine. If this growth stops the top end will wither away. Time don't fly, it bounds and leaps.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
968 Posts |
I think it is something of a bubble and will fade in time because once people start making the observation you made about the price at that grade they will start searching rolls for them and supply will increase. I definitely would not look at these coins as an investment. Instead, do your searching now, if you find really nice ones that you think will get an MS67 send it in, and then sell that coin right away while the prices are high. Then take that money and buy a coin that really does qualify as an investment
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Replies: 16 / Views: 3,260 |
Posted 08/27/2016 06:32 am
