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What'll These Be Worth Next Week?

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Lucky Cuss's Avatar
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4883 Posts
 Posted 11/11/2016  6:02 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add Lucky Cuss to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
What'll-These-Be-Worth-Next-Week?

Although 20+ years old, these notes, denominsted in Nuevos Pesos, would actually still be redeemed by El Banco de Mexico at face value. But in case you hadn't heard, the day after the U.S. presidential election the Mexican Peso crashed. Valued at almost 5½¢ U.S. on Tuesday, today it closed at about 4¾¢, which works out to nearly a 15% decline over three days. So the 200 Peso note, which would have exchanged for a bit under $11 on Tuesday (the day I acquired it), would get you just a little over $9.50 on Friday.

Colligo ergo sum
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Kefiroth's Avatar
United States
1431 Posts
 Posted 11/11/2016  6:07 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Kefiroth to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Perhaps we might see the printing of "New New Pesos" before the year is out.
Edited by Kefiroth
11/11/2016 6:08 pm
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RoyCoinBoy's Avatar
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1609 Posts
 Posted 11/11/2016  6:08 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add RoyCoinBoy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Im glad other countries have the sense that America doesn't. The general population know that Trump is such an idiotic, evil human being, that foreign stocks crashed.
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Pacificoin's Avatar
Canada
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 Posted 11/11/2016  6:41 pm  Show Profile   Check Pacificoin's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add Pacificoin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
At the risk of getting political , seems the US market continues at all time highs and the US Dollar is kicking other currencies including the Canadian Dollar and the Euro.
Ultimately time will tell if Mr Trump is a good or a bad choice. One thing that is clear is that the American People exercised their democratic duty on November 8th and decided to go in a different direction than that of the Obama Clinton coalition.
To call someone evil and idiotic is highly disrespectful.
Here in Canada , a lot of us ( myself included) did not like Mr Trudeau becoming prime minister last year, but that is democracy.
Today of all days we should remember those who have died in defence of Freedom and Democracy. Lest We Forget.
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Potsdam's Avatar
Germany
303 Posts
 Posted 11/11/2016  7:01 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Potsdam to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
So its democracy when a candidate does not become president although he/she has 0.2 % more in total votes?

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Pacificoin's Avatar
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 Posted 11/11/2016  7:09 pm  Show Profile   Check Pacificoin's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add Pacificoin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
That is not how the US system works, the Electoral College determines the Winner not the popular vote. There is no NATIONAL vote for president in the USA , it is a series of STATE elections. This is not the first time where the popular vote winner and the electoral college winner are not the same candidate see 2000 election for a similar result. Also 1824,1876, 1888 saw the loser get more popular votes.
In parliamentary democracies such as GB, Canada , NZ, Australia same thing can and has happened. The winning party with the most seats can lose in the total popular vote and still garner the largest number of seats.
Edited by Pacificoin
11/11/2016 7:17 pm
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Lucky Cuss's Avatar
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 Posted 11/11/2016  7:32 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Lucky Cuss to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Let me just say I wasn't intending to provoke a political discussion, merely bringing attention to the fact that suddenly the Mexican Peso has become rather unstable (which would hardly be the first time for that).

I'd simply remark that the framers of the U.S. Constitution opted for an indirect election of the prseident out of a concern that each state ought to have a say in the matter (as pointed out in the previous post), and were quite deliberate in setting it up so that smaller states were to have a slightly disproportional influence in the matter.

However, I'll reiterate that the system whereby a presidential election is conducted in the U.S., and most certainly the merits or faults of either candidate in the most recent such, was not at all what I was intending to open for discussion here, so now I'm sort of sorry I started this.

I will add that from an economic standpoint, the falling Peso could in the short term be a good thing for U.S. companies operating manufacturing plants south of the border; in that regard, it may work agaiinst the president-elect's stated intent to claw back jobs that have moved to Mexico. On the other hand, the situation probably bodes ill for retailers here in southern Arizona to the extent that they rely on sales to shoppers who come up from Sonora.

Colligo ergo sum
Edited by Lucky Cuss
11/11/2016 7:41 pm
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GR58's Avatar
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 Posted 11/11/2016  8:50 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add GR58 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Interesting information on the Peso ...

Good to know. Is there a source/link .. that lists which years notes .. and coins
are exchangeable?
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Lucky Cuss's Avatar
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 Posted 11/11/2016  9:10 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Lucky Cuss to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Is there a source/link .. that lists which years notes .. and coins are exchangeable?


This one is official for notes: http://www.banxico.org.mx/billetes-...que-ya-.html

Reform coinage (dated 1992 and later) would also theoretically exchange at face value, although U.S. banks typically can't be bothered with such.

Colligo ergo sum
Edited by Lucky Cuss
11/11/2016 9:11 pm
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sel_69l's Avatar
Australia
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 Posted 11/12/2016  01:13 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
World stockmarket indices dropped significantly, and almost completely recovered after Trump's election and Brexit.
Therefore, I would not be in the least surprised to find the Peso / Dollar exchange rate do the same thing, then the Peso will resume its overall decline over the extended period.
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paxbrit's Avatar
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 Posted 11/12/2016  12:54 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add paxbrit to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Considering that the Mexican economy is artificially propped up both by remissions sent from the US and the lack of a need to provide governmental services to absent citizens, the peso is definitely going to seek it's true value over the next few months.
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Enlil's Avatar
Australia
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 Posted 11/12/2016  1:44 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Enlil to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
"To call someone evil and idiotic is highly disrespectful" Respect is earned not given, and Trump defiantly does not deserve it.
Mexico peso will bounce back, the internal economy would affect its value more than Trump.
Edited by Enlil
11/12/2016 1:50 pm
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Pacificoin's Avatar
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 Posted 11/12/2016  4:54 pm  Show Profile   Check Pacificoin's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add Pacificoin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
A renegotiated NAFTA will be most beneficial to Canada, somewhat beneficial to the US and crushing to Mexico and thus the Peso. Canada and the US have always been each other's best friend and trading partners. With Mr. Trump as president , I doubt this will change anytime soon. Mexico was very much an afterthought to the original Canada US free trade agreement.

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Lucky Cuss's Avatar
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 Posted 11/15/2016  4:51 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Lucky Cuss to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
World stockmarket indices dropped significantly, and almost completely recovered after Trump's election and Brexit. Therefore,I would not be in the least surprised to find the Peso / Dollar exchange rate do the same thing, then the Peso will resume its overall decline over the extended period.


This seems to me to be a technically correct analysis, backed up by the two year chart, which certainly shows the Peso, despite occasional rebounds, losing value pretty steadily over that time.

See: http://futures.tradiNGCharts.com/chart/M6/W


Quote:
Perhaps we might see the printing of "New New Pesos" before the year is out.


I do wonder in this current cycle how low the Peso can fall before triggering such an event. I'd think the Mexican government has a specific critical level in mind and are planning now for what appears at the moment to be an eventuality.

The adoption of the Nuevo Peso was a pretty drastic measure (at a 1000:1 ratio) and as it turned out the action didn't prevent another crisis from occurring rather shortly thereafter....

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_...is_in_Mexico

Colligo ergo sum
Edited by Lucky Cuss
11/15/2016 5:09 pm
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nss-52's Avatar
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 Posted 11/15/2016  6:24 pm  Show Profile   Check nss-52's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add nss-52 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The price today is 4.9¢ for a Mexican Peso.
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See my topic on Mexican Numismatic Medals (click here)
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Lucky Cuss's Avatar
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 Posted 12/14/2016  07:57 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Lucky Cuss to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
The price today is 4.9¢ for a Mexican Peso


And it's hung in there right about at that level for a month now, even as other currencies have declined against the U.S. dollar over that period. Even with the leg down it suffered in early November, it seems to have resumed being one of the more reliable Latin American currencies. But its long term prospects are still such that I wouldn't want to be holding Banco de Mexico notes as assets.

Colligo ergo sum
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