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So How Weak Is The Commemorative Market?

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Beefer518's Avatar
United States
887 Posts
 Posted 08/17/2017  11:38 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add Beefer518 to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
I like the silver commemoratives coins. I like that they are all different, and portray a piece of our history, and in turn, tell a story.

I've been seriously considering doing a type set of them, but the pricing is giving me a headache. It seems that prices are low when compared to book, or even gray sheet, but that's concerning. It makes me think they're just going to go lower. There are many really nice MS (graded by the top 2) coins available at or below gray sheet bid. That sounds great on the surface, but makes me nervous to actually buy stuff. I have my eye on a really nice PCGS graded Isabella at below gray sheet, but I just don't want to click the buy button.

What's your opinion on the market?
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kanga's Avatar
United States
5825 Posts
 Posted 08/18/2017  08:40 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add kanga to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The Early Commemorative market has me confused.
My impression is that it's VERY soft (and flat) right now -- and has been for a while.
BUT when I search for ones that I'm missing the asking prices are higher than catalog.

Admittedly my searching has been mostly restricted to ebay.
In those cases I suspect the sellers:
-- are fishing for suckers, or
-- are unwilling to take a loss because they were purchased when prices were higher.

I also check some of the auction sites (Heritage, Great Collections, Stacks).
My problem there is that I don't want to pay for the high grades offered.
I'm looking for AU to about MS-64.
MS-65 and up are too pricey for my budget.

If you can find what you want for less than greysheet seriously consider buying.
I would.
Rest in Peace
moxking's Avatar
United States
17900 Posts
 Posted 08/18/2017  09:42 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add moxking to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
If you are seriously considering assembling the 50 piece type set of the classic silver commemoratives, you need to drop the idea of a "price guide" immediately.

That said, the very best idea of past sales is the Heritage listings. They have every single price list in almost any grade from any and all sources displayed together, with the inventory of graded coins- for free.

What you will notice is that all of those different price lists are different for the "same" coin in the "same" grade. When you explore past sales be sure to use the "most recent" filter, otherwise you could be looking at sales from 1998.

If you write down the sold prices for each example in the grade you are considering, and keep them in a PCGS versus NGC column, you will notice the actual sold prices between the two and that should influence your decision of which TPG to purchase.

I do that and list lowest, average, and highest price for each CSS. You will notice that the same coin type in the same grade will have HUGE differences in actual sold prices. Which is why my first suggestion of forgetting any particular price list, followed by information on price lists isn't contradictory.

The real point is that price guides are only marginally valuable because of the huge price ranges for any particular coin type and grade for actual sales.

In essence, the old "buy the coin, not the holder".

Make a list of the 50 and using the information you've gathered on selling prices, compare them (I also put this info in the columns for comparison) to see where there are huge jumps between prices.

I selected the grades range for my preferred grade, and the next grade up from there, to see how much of a jump there is between one and another.

In a few instances, such as the Monroe, there is a big jump in price from the 64 to 65, but it's one of my least favorite CSS and I was unwilling to pay the difference required for a coin I don't like.

In other instances the price difference between grades is very little, making it crazy not to step up to the higher grade. An example of that would be the Spanish Trail. There is such a small price difference between the average selling price between a 65 and 66 that it's nuts not to try for the 66.

Plan your attack. Have your list of preferred grades and prices in one guide that you make up yourself. Be willing to vary from that list if you find a gorgeous example below the grade you considered. If you fall in love with a higher grade coin, grab it if you can afford it.

I've been working on my set for nearly five years and I still have four I need to find. The CSS has been the top priority on my want list, so it's not like I've given up on them. I always save enough funds to buy all four if they became available tomorrow. So regardless of your grade interest I can assure you that this set is a challenge. You learn a ton of history in the process, too.

Where you find and buy your coins is determined by the grades and price range that you are comfortable with. If you want mid range grades Great Collections is a great place to look. Prices are reasonable, but not cheap.

For higher grades Heritage and Stacks-Bowers are both top rate. Be sure to reduce your bids by dividing by 1.2 for Heritage and S-B needs to be reduced by 1.175. Neither of these are scary once you've spent some time using them.

Note that I haven't listed ebay as a great choice. Actual auctions without reserves are few and far between. Good prices are rare. Of the 46 I've found, 3 were ebay and ebay takes tons more time to search, even if you use their email alerts.

Prices are very reasonable right now. 30 years ago only the rich could consider this challenge.

Finally (really) don't get impatient and buy stuff just to fill a hole. You want only one of each type. Make each one special to you.

When you look at your CSS collection you should marvel at the beauty of your collection. Not thinking about the need to upgrade.
Rest in Peace
Parklane64's Avatar
United States
2668 Posts
 Posted 08/18/2017  1:10 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Parklane64 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I take what I can get.

Having coin is not coined.

Money is an object.
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Beefer518's Avatar
United States
887 Posts
 Posted 08/18/2017  6:38 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Beefer518 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
My impression is that it's VERY soft (and flat) right now -- and has been for a while.
BUT when I search for ones that I'm missing the asking prices are higher than catalog.


That's exactly what I'm experiencing for many, but then there are some that are way under what I would expect to pay.


Quote:
Prices are very reasonable right now. 30 years ago only the rich could consider this challenge.


That's my question; is it at its bottom, or is it going lower still? How long to recover would you think (yes, I expect you to look into your crystal ball), or do you think the interest is just not there for a recovery?
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moxking's Avatar
United States
17900 Posts
 Posted 08/18/2017  7:04 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add moxking to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
If you read on this forum when someone posts a CSS, you get all kinds of folks who have never even seen one or knew they existed.

There is so much "stuff" to collect, with the mint spitting stuff out at an unheard of pace, that newer collectors are enamored of the new commemorative, which I would have thought would have led some back to the classics. But it hasn't happened yet.

The last two years, in particular, I've had to raise my expected price on some CSS several times before I was finally within fighting range at auction. If you compare the prices of some CSS, with mintage's under 10,000, in high Mint State, that can be had for ridiculously cheap prices it's plain silly not to have at least a few.

On the Stacks-Bowers sale that concluded a couple weeks ago, I won a 1935/1934 Boone is beautiful bright white, with a mintage of 10,008, in MS-66 - YES 66 - for $188.00 INCLUDING BP. I mean, come on. Does it take a genius to figure out these prices are nutso cheap?

Every time I see one of those stupid 2015(P) ASE selling for $500, and they are selling for that price every single day, with a "mintage" of 80,000 or so, and I compare what you could get with that same $500 in CSS, it makes me ill.

Want the best investment in the world? Take 10 million, which is nothing to some (not many, but some). Buy every high end CSS, excluding common date stuff over 60,000 mintage, in higher end grades. Suck them all out of ebay. Eat them up on Heritage and Stacks. In general, just buy them all that sell in the next year, or until you've eaten 10 Mil worth.

Suddenly, as prices start rising, they will again shine in the light.

Buying at the bottom is here, right now. That's my crystal ball. Actually my dog, Toby, just lets me use his.
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MeadowviewCollector's Avatar
United States
4409 Posts
 Posted 08/18/2017  8:04 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MeadowviewCollector to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Moxking's first post is full of good insight.

I only have a few classic silver commemorative halves all are circulated but I like them just the same.

-MV
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muddler's Avatar
United States
7196 Posts
 Posted 08/19/2017  9:41 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add muddler to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I enjoy and have have nearly a full set of the type set of early silver coins. The market if very flat on these recently and I do not see a resergance in the near future. They are an impressive set in an album and being one short after a lifetime search to fill the album I am satisfied with my collection
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Beefer518's Avatar
United States
887 Posts
 Posted 08/20/2017  12:55 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Beefer518 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Which one are you missing?
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muddler's Avatar
United States
7196 Posts
 Posted 08/20/2017  11:13 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add muddler to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The Hawaii, two I haven't cracked out are the Antetiam and the Spanish trail. I'm currently picking up the modern gold $5 commeratives they too are way down from five years ago.
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coinlover1899's Avatar
United States
3058 Posts
 Posted 08/20/2017  2:05 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add coinlover1899 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
This sounds like an interested thread.
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United States
1913 Posts
 Posted 08/20/2017  9:15 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Bret to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
moxking, excellent information! I'm inspired.
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Alpha2814's Avatar
United States
2023 Posts
 Posted 08/20/2017  10:05 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Alpha2814 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
What it CSS? It's not in the glossary and none of the Google hits are telling me anything.
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Beefer518's Avatar
United States
887 Posts
 Posted 08/20/2017  11:34 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Beefer518 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
What it CSS? It's not in the glossary and none of the Google hits are telling me anything.


I believe it stands for Commemorative Silver Series, or something like that.
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United States
1450 Posts
 Posted 08/23/2017  5:05 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add terry8835 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
How do gold $5 commemoratives stack up against bullion prices. The Statue of Liberty gold $5 coin by Elizabeth Jones is unique. I guess gold is gold and does not sell for less than melt value? I don't know a thing about commemorative coins except I like them.
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muddler's Avatar
United States
7196 Posts
 Posted 08/24/2017  03:08 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add muddler to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Many of the $5 gold sell for close to melt, the Jackie Robinson uncurculated has been going for around $800 when it listed for over $3,000 a few years back.
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