| Author |
 Replies: 42 / Views: 8,452 |
|
Valued Member
United States
160 Posts |
Is there such a thing as a sleeper these days? Would be interested in hearing from all you prognosticator's on what you feel is a sleeper coin, set, etc. among the U.S. coins minted since, lets say, 1916. Before you ask me why I picked that date, I just thought it would be a good starting point since many new types came out that year, or very near that time.
|
|
|
|
Pillar of the Community
Canada
5239 Posts |
Well, this is exactly the problem. I am sure that there is a "sleeper", but if more than a tiny fraction of people believed that, it would quickly rise in price and no longer be a sleeper.
I have often said:
There is a stock being sold now that will be worth 100 times the price in a year, but I have no clue which one it is.
|
|
Valued Member
 United States
160 Posts |
Can't say I didn't see this coming.
|
|
Rest in Peace
United States
17900 Posts |
Almost all of the entire Classic Silver Commemorative series are so cheap, even in very high grades, that is nothing short of amazing. Lots of issues with mintages in the 2000-10000 range in certified NGC or PCGS MS65 or better for less than $100 to a couple hundred.
Gorgeous historic issues at bargain basement prices.
|
|
Moderator
 United States
14463 Posts |
Nice Dune reference  |
|
Bedrock of the Community
United States
12057 Posts |
The market as a whole has been researched to death, most of the sleeper series were identified many years ago. For modern coins, the key these days seems to be condition scarcity, not numismatic scarcity, so super high grade coins, even of common dates, are popular. If there's any more money to be made, it's in cherrypicking these high-grade coins from the rest of them; for instance, BTW commems, which are common as dirt, can be had for almost nothing until MS67, at which point they become quite expensive. So there is value to be had in searching through, say, MS66 graded coins looking for ones that might upgrade to a 67, but this path is not without risk. The same can be applied to many Modern series (Wheat cents, Washington quarters, Franklin halves) by finding the exceptional coins among the millions of average coins, and getting them into high grade holders. Member ANA - EAC - TNA - SSDC - CCT #890 "Most of the things worth doing in the world had been declared impossible before they were done." -- Louis D. Brandeis |
|
Valued Member
United States
467 Posts |
A sleeper in today's world will be something you put away for your future grandchildren great grandchildren.... Most past series except for Classic Commemorative's or maybe Barber's are not being overlooked. There is not much out there right now because new generations are not keeping up with what's out there. Young people don't care as much about history an the rest of us do.
Just to give a reference. I am a gen X (born in 1970) and I didn't even think about coins until I was 36. It's even worse today.
|
|
Valued Member
United States
160 Posts |
All good answers! Moxking, I agree with you about commemoratives being beautiful coins, ridiculously low mintages, and no interest in them. How does that happen? It is very interesting how and why some types of coins seem to be always popular like Morgan and Peace dollars, Mercury dimes, even Lincoln pennies. And it not just the high grade stuff that is popular, people go after the low grade common dates as well. Why certain coins have always had a strong collector base and others don't is a mystery to me. |
|
Rest in Peace
United States
17900 Posts |
Classic Silver Commemorative issues scare a lot of people. You can learn to grade a specific series in a relatively short time. Even progressing to the point of knowing which issues in a series is hard/easy to find with strong strike, particulars about the planchets, and learning details about major and minor varieties can be learned with study. CSC have 50 different type so it appears that learning grading or authentication is difficult. The purchase of NGC or PCGS graded coins eliminate the majority of those two difficulties. But we have to be honest about the collector pyramid. At the base are the zillions of collectors that use pre-made storage books for raw coins. Most of those folks will probably never own a TPG, unless they purchase the key dates in TPG. They support everyone above. Purchasing a coin for hundreds of dollars might be impossible for them to justify unless it is in their own most loved series. It takes several steps up with ever decreasing numbers of collectors who can afford $30000-$50000 for a high grade 50 piece set. Yes, less expensive sets are possible but if you have any intention of assembling a set that approaches a registered set, those numbers are more honestly necessary. |
|
Bedrock of the Community
United States
94367 Posts |
Certainly can't argue with the logic here. But the problem I have with the classic commems is their volatile price history - you could really get hurt if you needed to sell suddenly on the wrong hop.
|
|
CCF Advertiser
United States
1533 Posts |
I think it would take a major sea change to generate interest in classic commems. I do shows and I literally find no interest at all in classic commems. People that have them aren't rushing to sell them and they are maintaining at these low prices where there is a $10 difference between grades from 63-64-65-66, but I see no buying interest at all either. There are enough high grade commmems so anyone that wants one can get one. The government has created the new modern market, so what will get people to buy the classics?
|
|
Rest in Peace
United States
17900 Posts |
I've seriously collected CSC for several years. Auction prices have risen significantly on a number of issues in high grades. Bidding on CSC is strong enough to surpass NGC and PCGS own price suggestions and there are very few areas in any series where that is true. I lose 3 out of 4 bids with Heritage, Stacks, and Great Collections and I'm not shy about bidding good prices. If you actually compare census figures you will find that higher grade examples are tiny in comparison to well loved series such as Morgan's, Walkers, or Lincoln's. Buy a couple TPG, hold those cheap gorgeous high grade low mintage issues in your hands, and you will be amazed that you haven't considered them before. |
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
586 Posts |
All the heavy hitters on this topic! Love It! In my non professional opinion, I truly love the down grading of the American Eagles. Such a beautiful coin. I attempted a grade for a 95W. Didn't get the grade I was hoping for..which is fine. Who wouldn't shoot for the stars lol! With that being said, I find the series to be a truly downgraded coin. Which is ok with me because I like to work on a series set haha
|
|
Bedrock of the Community
 United States
12477 Posts |
The original question is utterly impossible to answer. That's what makes any future boon a "sleeper". There's no predicting it because you don't know why it may become sought after. @moxking I took exception with this statement of yours: Quote:But we have to be honest about the collector pyramid. At the base are the zillions of collectors that use pre-made storage books for raw coins. Most of those folks will probably never own a TPG, unless they purchase the key dates in TPG. They support everyone above. Purchasing a coin for hundreds of dollars might be impossible for them to justify unless it is in their own most loved series. I use "pre-made" storage books (as do many), I own slabbed coins ( TPG and not of key dates) and buying a coin for "hundreds of dollars" is out of my reach. I assume I'm a bottom-feeder collector supporting the collectors in the classes above me? There should be no "pyramid" among collectors based on expendable assets. In Memory of Crazyb0 12-26-1951 to 7-27-2020
In Memory of Tootallious 3-31-1964 to 4-15-2020
In Memory of T-BOP 10-12-1949 to 1-19-2024
Edited by spru
11/18/2017 04:07 am
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
2271 Posts |
I believe if people knew just how scarce the modern circulating series are there would be a rush to them. A year ago I believed such a rush might be in its earliest stages but time has not corroborated that belief. But many of these coins are really getting quite scarce in nice condition. The '69 quarter, for instance, might have as few as 100,000 nice attractive specimens left in better than VG condition. Most of this issue are gone entirely now through attrition and those that are left are often culls or in very poor shape. Mint set coins tend to be ugly because of planchet scratching and most of these mint sets re gone now. Most of the mint sets that survive have badly corroded clads in them. There are virtually no rolls of this date and I've never seen one since 1971 despite a lot of searching. The ones you see are actually composed entirely of mint set coins. As near as I can tell there were only four bags saved and three of these were sold piecemeal by 1978.
Other dates are also far far scarcer than most realize. Nice attractive '82-P's are unusual in any condition above XF. And this applies to other denominations such as the 1984 one cent coin. Try finding one of these in nice chUnc with attractive surfaces!
People simply don't understand the scarcity because they don't collect them and they don't collect them because they falsely believe the coins are common.
Time don't fly, it bounds and leaps.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
Canada
5239 Posts |
@cladking, I think that you have identified a sleeper, but the way you describe it makes me doubt that it will ever awake. But if it does, you may have the last laugh if you have been gathering up choice specimens at a low price.
I won't be getting them.
|
| |
Replies: 42 / Views: 8,452 |
Posted 11/16/2017 6:58 pm
