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Advice — Buying Coins Between Price Guides' Grades

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JoshsCoins's Avatar
United States
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 Posted 01/16/2018  04:00 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add JoshsCoins to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
Hello all! Like most collectors, I rely on the RedBook, gray sheets, and other price guides to determine the amount I am willing to pay for coins in their respective conditions. As you know, these guides price out values for coins for the grades of 4, 8, 12, 20, 40, 50, etc. Generally, if I run across a coin in between grades (F-15, VF-30, XF-45, etc.) AND the date has a generally consistent ratio between its condition and value across the spectrum of all grades, I value such a coin by averaging the two values of whichever two grades the coin falls between.

But this strategy becomes problematic with series that have dismal survival rates of mid-grade coins, like Barbers and Standing quarters. For most dates, the values of a G, VG, and F can be clustered low, then the value skyrockets at VF and above. I'm in search of advice on how other collectors handle valuing coins that fall between price guide grades.

For example, I just purchased a problem-free 1905-O Barber quarter for $125, which I would grade as a F-15. NumisMedia lists the value of a F-12 as $77 and a VF-20 as $198. Another example is the 1919-D Standing quarter. A seller on ebay has a PCGS VF-35 for $525. A VF-20 is valued at $360 and a XF-40 at $600.

Thanks in advance.
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John1's Avatar
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 Posted 01/16/2018  04:44 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add John1 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
First off do not use Red Book for values. Use numismedia.com and ebay sold values. I think what I would do is add the prices together and then divide by two,$360+$600=$960 divide by 2 = $480
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JoshsCoins's Avatar
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 Posted 01/16/2018  04:56 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add JoshsCoins to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I actually haven't purchased a new RedBook for many years since price guides like NumisMedia have been published online.
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sel_69l's Avatar
Australia
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 Posted 01/16/2018  06:01 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Bit difficult to buy coins that are between grades, because there is not much difference between Sheldon grades.
Can be a problem with the British grading system.

A problem does arise however, when a coin has split grades one side from the other.

It does really pay to learn how to grade and value for yourself, rather than rely on slab grades.
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thecoinguy1964's Avatar
United States
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 Posted 01/16/2018  08:01 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add thecoinguy1964 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
ebay completed auctions has always been my best indicator.
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basebal21's Avatar
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 Posted 01/16/2018  08:42 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I think what I would do is add the prices together and then divide by two,$360+$600=$960 divide by 2 = $480


That'd be fine for a VF 30, for a 35 that is low. Averaging a 20 and 40 gets you a 30 ball park. 35s will be just shy of 40 pricing as they are just shy of a 40 in grade. If they have a CAC they'll be even closer to the 40 price and in some cases could match or surpass it, same goes if they have exceptional eye appeal/quality.
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 Posted 01/16/2018  09:27 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add just carl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I actually haven't purchased a new RedBook for many years since price guides like NumisMedia have been published online.

I too use the Red Book for a sort of price guide but it has to be at least 4 or 5 issues old. Yet always try to remember that for all coins, the true, real value is what is stated on the coin. Anything and everything else is what ever someone is willing to pay.

Quote:
eBay completed auctions has always been my best indicator.

And this is really true. You can show me all the price guides on Earth, but a coin is only worth what it sells for.
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scopru's Avatar
United States
5029 Posts
 Posted 01/16/2018  09:30 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add scopru to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Recent sold auction prices give me the best idea of where the currently at on price.
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jbuck's Avatar
United States
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Bump111's Avatar
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 Posted 01/16/2018  09:45 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Bump111 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Since not all prices follow a linear progression, it might be helpful to plot price vs grade on a graph and use that for your estimate. You could also use this to see outliers. Fun anyway
"Nummi rari mira sunt, si sumptus ferre potes." - Christophorus filius Scotiae
Edited by Bump111
01/16/2018 09:48 am
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Andrew99's Avatar
United States
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 Posted 01/16/2018  11:07 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Andrew99 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Its nowhere near linear. VF-30 coins trade slightly above VF-20 money and VF-35 coins more, but still some percentage relative to VF money. When there is a big jump in price between VF and XF money, the coin will have to be XF-45 to get the XF money.
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shadowtrooper78's Avatar
United States
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 Posted 01/16/2018  12:55 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add shadowtrooper78 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The president of our local coin club gave me a rule of thumb when he purchases coins that are in between grades. He said typically 15% to 30% higher on the in between VF grades and about 25% at XF 45. Granted this is a generalization, but if you look at auction prices realized its pretty close.
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Aoraki's Avatar
New Zealand
148 Posts
 Posted 01/16/2018  1:39 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Aoraki to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I think something needs to be said about coins with exceptional eye appeal. For example, you may be able to find plenty of XF 1840 Braided Hair LCs at RedBook (for example) prices but you won't be able to touch a prime, well-struck coin of the same date and grade at that price level. It works the other way, as well, of course. The dinged up XF coin (that will still straight grade) will sell for less than price guide.
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Coinfrog's Avatar
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 Posted 01/16/2018  3:12 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Coinfrog to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Agree with numismedia.com and ebay results. Premium eye-coins are worth premium prices, grading aside.



to the CCF!
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jbuck's Avatar
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 Posted 01/16/2018  4:39 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Premium eye-coins are worth premium prices, grading aside.
Truth. I am willing to pay more for a coin that has a lower grade, but superior eye appeal.
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moxking's Avatar
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 Posted 01/16/2018  5:00 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add moxking to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Aoraki has made the most sense, thus far.

To begin with, there are enough grades in the Sheldon system that the number of in between coins are marginal, at best.

A coin is graded by all three sides resulting in a single number the vast majority of the time.

No matter what price guide you use, with the exception of recent results at auction or on ebay with comparisons for both grade and eye appeal, any other guide can only give one part of a two part equation.

That being: Technical Grade +/- Eye Appeal = Value.

Make it simple. Pick any coin that sells regularly in a relatively easy technical grade. In other words coins that sell fairly frequently. Go to Heritage and check sold prices. For the same technical grade you will find huge ranges in value because of the eye appeal factor.

Also notice that Heritage lists something like 10 different price guides on almost every coin. Why go to all the different places when you get all the prices right next to each other?

Price is a sharp hook only.
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