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 Replies: 9 / Views: 3,897 |
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Valued Member
United States
460 Posts |
I have recently become familiar with the PCGS Coinfacts site. NGG also has a similar site. The PCGS site contains survival estimates for many issues with identification of a well known panel of numismatic dignitaries who caucused to determine the survival estimates. However, it contains no explanation of methodology or the basis for the estimates. I am curious at the almost shockingly low survival estimates for many 19th century coins, particularly when compared to 20th century rarities. For example, some 50 years ago when I was about ten and had no money, I purchased an 1839-O Seated Liberty dime from a coin shop for not more than one dollar. According to the PCGS survival estimates, my dime is one of only 600 of the issue which survive in any condition. My raw dime would grade about G4 and according to PCGS is worth $34. I can easily accept that a dime I paid a dollar for is now worth $34. What I cannot understand is how I happened upon one of the supposed 600 remaining specimens and how a coin so rare can have so low a value, even if not in high demand. In absolute terms, my little one dollar dime is rarer than any regular issue 20th century coin. I find that so hard to believe that I immediately question the reliability of the PCGS survival estimates. I fully understand that they are just estimates, and I know that survival estimates are different from population reports which are skewed by resubmissions and the non certification of lower grade coins. So, all that being said, I would welcome comments on the survival estimates. Are they reasonably based and fairly reliable? The PCGS survival estimates are also often half or less than half of the survival estimates for 19th century coins in books by Q. David Bowers about coins I am interested in. Any thoughts at all would be appreciated. |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
They are just what they say, an estimate based upon educated guesses and an informed opinion nothing more. Obviously no one knows a real exact number
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
10982 Posts |
I enjoy PCGS' Coinfacts site and refer to it often. There is a wealth of free information there that would be unbelievable even 30 years ago. That said I take the survival estimates as just that, estimates. For your coin in question, an 1839-O Seated dime, the number does seem low - far under 1%. When coming up with this estimate one factor is the total population of graded pieces (Pop Reports) from all TPG. PCGS and NGC combined have graded fewer than 300 of this date and many of those are likely duplicates. Many lower grade examples are never submitted for grading of course. The absolute age, mint location, known meltages and other factors contribute as well. That said 600 still sounds low to me too. As far as value goes this is highly dependent on condition. In any condition other than heavily worn and/or damaged you have a valuable date. Most collectors want a Fine or better piece if affordable and that really drops the value of a Good to low levels since there are not a lot of Seated dime collectors out there and this type, Type 2 No Drapery, is available for other years and mints for the type collector. Hope this helps. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
509 Posts |
 to CCF This is taken from a post at the bottom of the PCGS price guide. Quote:
IMPORTANT
The PCGS Price Guide prices apply only to PCGS-graded coins. The PCGS Price Guide is a guide to assist the coin buying public in determining values for all important United States rare coins. Before you use the Price Guide, you should read the following information very carefully.
WHAT DO PCGS PRICES MEAN?
The prices listed in the PCGS Price Guide are average dealer asking prices for PCGS-graded coins. The prices are compiled from various sources including dealer ads in trade papers, dealer fixed price lists and website offerings, significant auctions, and activity at major coin shows. Dealer specialists and expert collectors provide pricing input. Remember that the prices are just a guide, a starting point for asserting value. Some PCGS coins sell for less than the prices listed and some PCGS coins sell for more than the prices listed.
COINS UNDER $10
For coins valued at under $10, even when graded by PCGS, the price listed is the value of non-graded (i.e., "raw") coins. The reason is that PCGS grading fees are more than the value of the coins, so these low value coins are seldom submitted to PCGS for grading,
YOUR INPUT IS WELCOMED
We welcome pricing input from all PCGS dealers and all serious coin collectors. If you have pricing suggestions, email them to RCMR@PCGS.com. Be sure to include relevant information such as
Auction records
Private offerings
Public sales
.as opposed to just saying, "I think this price is too low (or high)."
We will not be able to personally respond to your e-mails but we will review your suggestions.
THE RARE COIN MARKET
The coin market is volatile and thinly capitalized. Significant short-term price swings are always possible. Collectors Universe, its principals and representatives do not guarantee a profit or guarantee against a loss for any coin you buy or sell based on the information contained in this Price Guide or any Collectors Universe website. You buy and sell rare coins at your own risk. Furthermore, Collectors Universe, its principals and representatives do not guarantee the accuracy of any price in the PCGS Price Guide.
Edited by jst1dreamr
08/04/2018 03:06 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3343 Posts |
I use PCGS survival as an index more than an absolute number. Many common coins are undercounted, probably due to the low number sent to PCGS for grading. But there are major inconsistencies. The common 1919 cent shows 39,000,000, while the similarly common 1905 cent only shows 5000.
One PCGS category which reflects a superabundance of survivors is silver dollars. 1883-CC has 700,000, which is 2/3 of the original mintage. 1922 has 10,000,000.
Another place to look at relative populations is Heritage auction archives. The 1839-O dime shows 107 sales while the much less common 1856-S dime shows 94. I think the actual survival of 1839-O's is much higher than 1856-S, but there is not enough interest to generate a market for them. And unless they come to market they don't get counted.
I have a 1987 copy of Doug Winter's Charlotte mint book. His estimates of survival are half (or less) of current PCGS. As the demand for these coins grew, more of them surfaced, to the point that C survivors often exceed common coins of the same date. For instance, there is no way that the rare 1856-C half eagle survivors exceed bullion coin 1856-P's.
In summary, the rarer and more highly sought coins generally have the best PCGS survival estimates.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq
08/04/2018 11:51 am
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts |
PCGS and NGC send out people every year to count all the remaining coins in circulation. They count every coin being circulated and then look inside everyone's houses and businesses for jars, boxes or cans of coins. They then count all those too. Might be off one or two coins though due to people hiding some.  |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1723 Posts |
I can definely understand the OP. I would be thinking the same thing as well as some of the responses. It makes sense that very serious collectors would want and EF grading or better for their sets but then again, with a population of over 300 million people in the States are you telling me that there isn't 600 people that would want that coin to at least say they have it!? Even 5000 for that matter? Wouldn't that alone drive values up?
Now for me personally, I'm strictly Canadian coinage for my collection, I only have 150 years ish of coins to hunt down. Even though I naturally would like to have better grades, especially for most recent years, when you're talking a Mintage so small and over 120 years old, I'm totally good with a AG grade just to fill the hole.
Edited by samsnate
08/04/2018 1:03 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
10982 Posts |
If anyone is interested in picking up this date/mm on the cheap there is one on ebay right now with a $10 opening bid and no bids. https://www.ebay.com/itm/KEY-DATE-1...113181103919The seller calls it AG About Good and I wouldn't argue one bit. In fact it looks like a nice, undamaged AG piece. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3479 Posts |
One series where the population estimates are grossly inflated is the Seated dollar series. I've seen it first hand since I started collecting the series. Buyer 1 purchases a Seated dollar from AAA auction house. Said buyer cracks the coin out and resubmits to PCGS in hopes of an upgrade. Grade comes back the same. Buyer 1 consigns Seated dollar with BBB auction house and sells at a loss. Buyer 1 doesn't send the cracked-out slab back to PCGS. The pop reports now record the Seated dollar as a new find. Buyer 2 purchases the coin from BBB auction house and the process is or might be repeated. Also many proof Seated dollars have been misidentified as business strikes. If you follow the series closely, between all the auction sites including ebay, you can find on average one misidentified proof in a business strike holder per month. I created a running thread about Seated dollars that come back onto the market. Some in new holders. I haven't updated the thread as much as I should. http://goccf.com/t/314220&SearchTer...t+came+back' |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:One series where the population estimates are grossly inflated is the Seated dollar series. The survival estimates are different than the population reports. You are right that the population reports are inflated, but that is true across the board for classic coins and not just certain series. |
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Replies: 9 / Views: 3,897 |
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Posted 08/04/2018 01:43 am
