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Replies: 14 / Views: 2,655 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
7276 Posts |
I was speaking to a fellow collector and the topic of rarity came about. My friend asked me how many rare coins are still around and the answer that I had was that I didn't know. As an example the 1877 IHC or the 1916-D Mercury dime or the 1928 Peace dollar. These are all smaller mintages, with use, getting lost or just melted for the precious metal how many are still around? I found an old thread where an estimate of 10000 IHC for 1877 being around? That seems either really high or really low. So the question is for these low mintage coins what do we estimate are still around? 1909 S-VDB LWC1914 D LWC1916 D Mercury dime1877 IHC1928 Peace dollarThanks
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Pillar of the Community
United States
9792 Posts |
You can find a good guess (through the years of submissions) over at PCGS Coin Facts pages. For example the 1916-D dime they say 10,000 exist in all grades. (I think that's about right and probably around 15 K or more counterfeit 1916-D dimes. As to the 10K number on the 1877 Indian cent, that sounds a bit low, just between PCGS & NGC they list right at 9900 in population reports. We know those aren't accurate but close enough (they don't include details graded coins), add in ANACS (they do show details graded coins) and now we are at 15K there is still ICG, SEGS, PCI plus all the raw coins out there (of course minus crossover and crackout numbers in that) say there are 2500 total of them, I'd put the total surviving population around 20,000 1877 IHCs today, (of course that is only my opinion, but concluded through some facts). All of the coins you list are fairly common for a collector to find, maybe not so affordable or easy to find in a top quality for the grade, but available all the time, I think there is probably a dozen or more of each of them for sale at any given time just on ebay and other auction firms online. Some of the really rare coins (early gold pieces and some proof coins) are skewed in the population reports, along with any coin around a large spread point of pricing vs. grade. Just from the crack outs and re-submissions on these. I remember one gold coin where there was a mintage of 25-30 pieces and PCGS had a total population exceeding 60 for that particular coin, add in ANACS, NGC, SEGS, PCI, ICG, etc. back then and one can see how you can't always fully trust or believe the population reports. Though I think PCGS does a pretty fair job in the condition census and estimates of surviving mintages on Coin Facts.
"Buy the Book Before You Buy the Coin" - Aaron R. Feldman - "And read it" - Me 2013! ANA Life Member #3288 in good standing since 1981, ANS, Early American Coppers Member (EAC), Colonial Coin Collectors Club member (C4), Conder Token Collector Club member (CTCC), Civil War Token Society (CWTS) member, Liberty Seated Collectors Club (LSCC) & Numismatic Bibliomania Society member (NBS), USMex, Member in good standing, 2¢ variety collector. See my want page: http://goccf.com/t/140440
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Bedrock of the Community
 United States
12477 Posts |
PCGS Coinfacts gives survival estimates. Note that copper estimates are divided into BN, RB & RD.
In Memory of Crazyb0 12-26-1951 to 7-27-2020 In Memory of Tootallious 3-31-1964 to 4-15-2020 In Memory of T-BOP 10-12-1949 to 1-19-2024
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Rest in Peace
United States
18456 Posts |
I would say off the top of my head that whatever the official mintages are , cut that # in half . that's how many survived being melted , lost ( in ground ) or at sea ,dealers and collectors holding them, etc. 
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
7276 Posts |
I didn't know that the coin facts actually had estimates. I checked and the 1877 has around 6000 still around. While the 1928 has about 30000 still around.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3343 Posts |
I take the PCGS number and double it.
Many coins are extremely scarce compared to the well-known stoppers, but few people collect them. However, some coins which used to be scarce have become much more plentiful. The discovery of hoards, shipwreck recoveries, the GSA release of cc Morgans, and the recent popularity of the Southern branch mints, for instances.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts |
I'd say no one really knows at all. How could anyone know how many of any coins are in jars, boxes, safes, safe deposit boxes, home Albums and Folders, bottom of wishing wells, bottom of Rivers and Lakes, etc., etc. Any estimates would be complete guesses. TPGS's can only guess based on the amount sent to them. And for example I have 10 of the 1916D Mercury dimes and no TPGS knows that. This is just one of the reasons so many go through bank rolls all the time. Just in case.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
7276 Posts |
Carl
I understand but are there any really rare coins still left in the wild?
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Valued Member
United States
419 Posts |
Quote: I understand but are there any really rare coins still left in the wild? Not old ones. Unless you count modern error coins or nit picky varieties you won't find many "rare" coins in circulation. Back in the 1950s I used to search bags of cents and nickles. I think I might have found ten Indian Head cents (all common) and a few liberty head nickles in MANY MANY hours of searching. The only really valuable coin I ever found in circulation was a 1942/41 dime in VF. So another 60 years have passed since then and all the old stuff has gone into collections. You would be lucky to find a few 40% silver halves. I think just about everybody realizes that some old coins are worth a lot so they don't turn loose any they have. Once in a blue moon somebody scores big at a garage sale, but with the Internet, most folks have wised up. In my opinion, coins are the hardest collectible to make field finds of vintage items. One reason I buy coins from dealers or on ebay. And save my field search time for old fishing tackle where I do score big once in awhile. Your best bet is to specialize on a few old coin series that you like. Learn all the varieties and you might pick up some rare ones that a less knowledgeable seller or auction house offers at a common price.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2335 Posts |
I believe that there are rare coins still in the wild. I'm mostly retired and buy various items for resale. It doesn't happen on a regular basis but I do find items that are as rare as the coins listed above. I'm currently waiting on the heirs of a gentleman to make the decision to sell the last of his collection. They still have a box of GSA Morgan dollars & his Morgan date set that includes the 1893-S. The collection was assembled in the 50's through the 70's and hasn't seen the light of day since.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4416 Posts |
Quote: I understand but are there any really rare coins still left in the wild? Having actively collected coins for over fifty years now, I have yet to cease finding "really rare" coins. Virtually all of them were obtained from dealers, online, at shows, in local coin shops, flea markets, auctions & even ebay. I personally don't regard most key date coins as rare, unless it's by virtue of being "condition rare." There are well over 200 1916-D dimes currently up for purchase on ebay. There's but one 1873-CC quarter for sale .... Now, that's what I call a rare coin. I found one, a VF, in a dealer's junk box many years ago at a Cleveland show. It cost me but five bucks, as it had a small hole, and some letters had been engraved on it. I figured I could trade it as a love token. It wasn't until I got home and checked the Red Book that I realized what I had. I als realized that I could find rare coins if I cultivated more general knowledge. At another Cleveland show, I bought a double-denomination coin error; originally a cent and overstruck by nickel dies. At a flea market, I bought a rare Condor "kneeling slave" token, struck in silver! I bought a 1797 NC-2 large cent at another Florida flea market. At a local coin auction, I bought a 1799 large cent in VG-F! I bought a 1796 NC-2 at an antique shop. Earlier this year, I purchased a rare counterstamped Bust half on ebay, being the fifth now known. I've found countless, genuinely rare tokens, counterstamps and other forms of exonumia over the years. From my perspective, numismatics has been akin to treasure hunting. New material is constantly reentering the marketplace. Just this weekend, I had occasion to purchase at auction three pieces of unlisted, obsolete scrip that I've never before seen. I've been collecting this "stuff" for decades! To me, this stuff, but a small portion of what's out there, constitutes genuinely rare pieces. I've long been a book buyer and actively sought to learn about many aspects of numismatics. While I've made some misteaks along the way, the successes, the opportunity to discover and learn, has long overshadowed the mistakes.
Edited by ExoGuy 11/24/2019 8:53 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts |
Quote: I understand but are there any really rare coins still left in the wild? Appears to be a good question since lots of replies. Rare and valuable coins pop up all the time and even in change. For example I always ask at banks if they have any of the large Dollar coins. One day, not long ago, the teller said she had a roll of what looked like odd but large dollar coins. I bought it for face and it turned out to be a roll of old Silver Dollars. At a near by flea market a seller always has a couple of boxes of old coins just laying there. Old and rare coins constantly pop up all over the place. The main problem is as coinage gets used less and less, people don't even recognize many of them and in some cases refuse to take them.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
789 Posts |
Lots of coins in the ground and/or water. All you gotta do is find them.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
7276 Posts |
I don't think finding old coins is the same as finding the key dates. For example, I once found 1909 VDB but never found a 1909 S VDB. I even found a 1914, but not a 1914-D and just 2 weeks ago I was given a silver Roosevelt as change. None are particularly rare, but I haven't found a Mercury dime in change in the 43 years I lived in the US.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4416 Posts |
I have never found a "rare" or key coin in circulation. I define "the wild" as any unexpected find/discovery. The 1873-CC quarter and the 1799 large cent are key coins in their respective series. The greatest finds I've made have been "off the radar" for the collectors of modern coins. To me, making great finds means getting outta the box, extending one's collecting knowledge and looking beyond pocket change. Getting outta the box will improve one's luck and improve the odds of making great finds. How does a collector then get "outta the box?" Invest in coin books, other than simple price guides (library visits work, too). Join a club to network with fellow collectors. Attend coin shows. Try to establish a good relationship with one or more dealers. Participate in online forums (love CCF). Explore online websites. Acyively seek out coin venues. Just my Two Cents ....
Edited by ExoGuy 11/27/2019 9:30 pm
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Replies: 14 / Views: 2,655 |
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