| Author |
 Replies: 13 / Views: 1,486 |
|
|
Pillar of the Community
Canada
1069 Posts |
The more I collect, the more I encounter weird little disconnects between the mint numbers for various coins and how hard it actually is to find them. I'm referring to the numbers listed in the Charlton guide and at C&C.com. The impact of such a disconnect might be that some coins are undervalued and others are overvalued.
One example: the 1870 NFLD 10 cent. 30,000 of these were minted but, to date, I've had no luck finding one that is not mis-graded or in fairly poor shape. [I think there's maybe an issue with a very weak reverse strike, yes?] In contrast, I've had no problem acquiring an 1876 (10,000 minted) or an 1885 (8,000 minted) both in better than VF-30 and for reasonable prices. I realize this may just be luck-of-the-draw situation that will rectify with time. But I can't help wondering if maybe the initial numbers minted for certain coins are deceptive in terms of scarcity right now? No idea why that would be but...
I wonder too whether more modern coins minted in low numbers might have been immediately hoarded and preserved by collectors? This could mean that, while relatively few might have been made, lots are still around to buy. An example here is the 1946 NFLD 5 cent. 2,041 were originally produced but in my experience there seem to be lots of them around and many are in pretty fine condition. Again, am I imagining this?
|
|
|
|
Pillar of the Community
Canada
1922 Posts |
I agree some coins very rarely show up on auction sites, e-bay or other avenues yet they are low balled in trends that have low mintage. Then like you mentioned lots of modern scarce coins are hoarded like the 1991 25 cent Canadian I had 5 rolls and got crazy prices for them I have 1 left.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3486 Posts |
The same disconnect occurs with US coins. An 1883 nickel, no cents variety, has a larger mintage than the 1883 with cent. Yet the 'with cents' variety costs more and is harder to find in nicer condition. The same occurs often in other denominations. You are not imagining things and your reasoning in very sound. |
|
Pillar of the Community
 Canada
5273 Posts |
How scarce is scarce ........
One definition when there is not enough of something to meet current demand .
Never rely on mintage figures for trying to figure scarcity .
I once steamed right in on Two French Colonial pieces that had
Mintages of 150 pieces . Owned both for over 20 years! Sold both
For a big loss . Reason , there may be only a 150 of something but no
Demand.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
 Canada
1069 Posts |
@PAcificoins - agreed. I take my cues on scarcity from the NGC and PCGS population reports. For example, for the 1946 NFLD 5c (just to flog the proverbial dead horse) NGC has 23 graded including 4 in mint state. PCGS has 88 graded with 7 in mint state. In contrast, the 1870 10 cent NGC has 15 graded with 1 in mint state; PCGS has 43 graded with5 in mint state. My take is that the 1870 10 cent (30,000 produced) is likely to be more scarce than the 1946 5 cent (2,041 produced) at this particular time. My experience is that the 1870 is harder to get yet cheaper than the 1946.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
Canada
5308 Posts |
You take those BMO sideview tokens they go for really great ptices even though it seems one person owned most of them, but there is demand. NFLD coins and stamps has some really low mintage, but I assume there are few collectors, in twenty years or more I have seen only two raw 1921 50 cent in G 6, G8 grades for 20K and up and they did sell eventually. Look at the 1911 dollar, nothing more rare in Canada, from previous sale, the owner lost close to 500K partly due to questionable care and limited demand.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
Canada
1069 Posts |
@John100 and others - and yes, scarcity and demand are intimately bound up in one another. In this case though, I am just curious about the absolute numbers of things - my sense is that the number minted is a starting point but nothing more than that.
|
|
Valued Member
Canada
298 Posts |
I ended up ordering both Obverse 1870 NFLD 10 Cents, ICCS VF-20s both, from J&M, several years ago. Many of my NFLD coins came from places other than ebay as some were (at the time) very difficult to find. I found collecting them in reasonable grades a fun challenge, still upgrade the odd one from time to time. |
|
Pillar of the Community
 United States
1299 Posts |
Agree with pacificoin, which is pretty much what I was saying in my posts a few days ago on the 1858 ten cent specimen. I do not believe that scarcity and demand are at all closely related in Canadian numismatics. Demand almost solely drives prices.
Also, some of the published minting numbers are wrong, i.e. for years people thought the 1858 cent mintage was only 400,000.
http://www.victoriancent.com2011 & 2025 Fred Bowman Award Winner, 2020 J. Douglas Ferguson Award Winner, & 2022 Paul Fiocca Award Winner. Life Member of RCNA.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
1299 Posts |
Another factor is historical prices are very slow to change. Prices for 1858 cents evolved when everybody thought the mintage was 400,000. I successfully made the case in my 2007 book that the mintage is about 1.5 million. For the last few years Charlton has recognized the 1.5 million, but the prices have not materially changed.
I think there are several reasons for why the prices did not change:
1. The prices in Trends and Charlton are driven by dealers. Dealers have a vested interest in keeping prices up.
2, The demand for 1858 cents did not significantly change. In fact....
3. Some people collect 1858 cents by die variety, which tended to increase demand and the average prices.
4. It was the first Canadian decimal year.
5. Inertia.
I actually believe the prices on 1858 cents are reasonable and that the prices for other Victorian cents should be higher. For example, based upon supply an 1881-H cent should cost about the same as an 1858. Alas, again demand and price history are the more important factors and the 1881-H prices are lower.
Edited by bosox
08/16/2020 6:32 pm
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
1299 Posts |
Finally, solely on the supply side you have to ask yourself a few questions: 1. Did The Royal Mint and Heaton actually date the entire mintage with the date of the year in which they were minted. In numerous cases, they did not. Does anybody think there were 600,000 1889 ten cent coins minted? 2. What was going on with the economy and the banks in the year the coins were minted. Did coins circulate freely, or were they hoarded by the populace. In the case of NF, coins were not minted every year, so in 1870 maybe coinage was so short that the entire mintage heavily circulated, while in 1876 and 1885 it may have not have circulated as much. 3. Was there a special event that caused hoarding, like the first year of a reign (1902, 1911). 4. Did collectors hoard the coins of a given year. For example, 1887 cents had a reported mintage of 1.5 million, about the same mintage as 1858 cents, yet high mint state examples of 1887 abound. That is mainly because of the Landon collection. When his collection sold, there were 53 higher grade mint state 1887 examples sold. I would guess that NF 1946-C five cents fall into this category. As pacificoin said, the reported mintages sometimes mean very little. http://www.victoriancent.com2011 & 2025 Fred Bowman Award Winner, 2020 J. Douglas Ferguson Award Winner, & 2022 Paul Fiocca Award Winner. Life Member of RCNA.
Edited by bosox
08/16/2020 7:11 pm
|
|
Pillar of the Community
Canada
1069 Posts |
Very interesting bosox - thanks for all of that information. Had never thought about the economic angle... now googling "historical Newfoundland employment figures"
|
|
Pillar of the Community
Canada
1069 Posts |
And regarding 1858, 1903, 1910... there's a weird fetish around firsts eh? I have it myself - I have a fairly big pile of 1858 1c, 5, 10c, and 20c...the 20c in particular is fascinating to me. In contrast, the odd-ball 1862 and 1864 New Brunswicks leave me sort of cold. There's no logic to it.
Which is also part of it - people collect what they want because they want it. It's just odd that so many people converge on the same things and then justify it with faulty information.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
Canada
576 Posts |
Just a comment on the 1858 large cent: I metal detected across a wide portion of southern Ontario in the seventies and eighties,and nineties, concentrating on historical areas. I unearthed thousands of large cents and in that group were hundreds of 1859 cents. I only uncovered two legible 1858 cents in that whole time. Strange.
|
| |
Replies: 13 / Views: 1,486 |
|
Posted 08/16/2020 09:35 am
