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What Happened While I Was Away.

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Dino's Avatar
United States
180 Posts
 Posted 04/24/2022  11:32 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add Dino to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
Hello CCF,
So a few months before the pandemic I stepped away from numismatic ventures due to a family health issue and then followed a crazy two years of work with insane overtime due to worker shortages.
Before my departure I had a small but thriving coin business, at first primarily e-commerce but started doing coin shows on the weekends. It was fun, fascinating, and satisfying; however it became a second full time job that I could no longer sustain for reasons stated above.
I recently retired and have started to get back into the market, a market that has really seemed to change: SSN #s needed for ebay and Paypal( dissolved the LLC to soon it seems), really strong prices at all the auction houses even for non-rarity coins, and of course a resurgence in metals.
Are my observations correct? If so is it speculative or investment buying? How long before inflation runs interference?
Who knows,right. Anyway I look forward to the challenges, read hunt, and have really enjoyed browsing thru the posts on this forum and finding some things stay the same( that's a compliment).




Pillar of the Community
United States
819 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2022  02:00 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add chipjones to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Welcome back
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Coinfrog's Avatar
United States
94367 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2022  08:39 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Coinfrog to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
You didn't miss that much!
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jbuck's Avatar
United States
188052 Posts
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Sap's Avatar
Australia
16816 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2022  11:28 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Sap to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
...really strong prices at all the auction houses even for non-rarity coins...

This has been observed across the board, in both the US and non-US markets. It seems to be a by-product of the global pandemic: too many people with nothing to do but surf the internet and indulge in their isolation-compatible hobbies, and being unable to spend their surplus money on their usual pastimes like overseas holidays and expensive dinners in fancy restaurants means that many of these people had more cash than usual to spend on those hobbies.

It will presumably "get back to normal" once the pandemic officially ends, world travel reopens and people aren't afraid to go out for dinner any more. Meanwhile, it's a seller's market - meaning it probably isn't a good time to try to start up a new coin shop business and acquire lots of inventory.
Don't say "infinitely" when you mean "very"; otherwise, you'll have no word left when you want to talk about something really infinite. - C. S. Lewis
Valued Member
Dino's Avatar
United States
180 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2022  12:08 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Dino to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Sap,
I agree with your assessment, and I'm sure other factors are involved as well. Fortunately I never fully liquidated my inventory, but still nowhere near enough for a shop. I am back to where I started with e-commerce and have reached out to some of the show hosts and am on the schedule later this year.
As mentioned I look forward to the challenge, have not forgotten some of the aggravations, yet still optimistic.
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newguy22's Avatar
United States
277 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2022  2:57 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add newguy22 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Were there other times in recent years when prices for a lot of coins jumped, and then eventually corrected?
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Slider23's Avatar
United States
4469 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2022  3:25 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Slider23 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
If you sold on ebay, a few things have changed. This year on ebay any sales over $600 will receive a 1099 form, and that is why they want your SS#, and you will have to start using ebay managed payments. CAC now has their own price guide for stickered coins. CAC and the major TPG's are swamped with submissions.
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tdziemia's Avatar
United States
7936 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2022  8:53 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add tdziemia to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Were there other times in recent years when prices for a lot of coins jumped, and then eventually corrected?


A VERY interesting question.

Folks who watch the stock market know that "corrected/correction" means a DECREASE in selling price.

I have not analyzed tons of sales data for coins as time series (but I have analyzed some). To the best of my knowledge, in the last 20 years, I have not seen any times when selling prices of copper or silver coins decreased.

I assume this is NOT rue of gold "coins" linked to bullion price.


Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts
 Posted 04/26/2022  07:36 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add just carl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

You didn't miss much.
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hfjacinto's Avatar
United States
7273 Posts
 Posted 04/26/2022  07:57 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hfjacinto to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Were there other times in recent years when prices for a lot of coins jumped, and then eventually corrected?


The last time we had a major price correction was 2009-2010. Prices on some coins dropped 20-30% and stayed flat until 2020.

My local coin shops (LCS) has boxes of coins. In 2020 I was doing the winged Mercury dimes set, the last coin I needed was the 16-d and he had 3 of them all priced $700-$900, the greysheet in 2020 was in the high $300-$400 range. He had one graded AG3, that was more like a G6, he offered it to me for $365. When I asked him why it had $900, he said a lot of the coins were priced in the 2009 date as the prices had jumped but those prices weren't valid.

So yes there have been price increases and decreases throughout the decades.

Since the market is fluid, and in some cases based on bullion value for most common date coins the prices are flexible and will go up or down

Please note that a lot of this depends on what you collect. Registry sets are super hot now so if you in the registry set you can expect to pay a lot for common date high grade coins while a 1-2 grade lower coin can be downright reasonable.
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