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The Reality Of Japanese Coin Values

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Archraz's Avatar
United States
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 Posted 09/11/2009  9:33 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add Archraz to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
Over the years I have pulled a number of Japanese 500 yen coins, such as the one pictured, out of dealers' junk boxes. Since these have a face value well over the 25 cents I paid, I always figured that I was getting a good deal. What is odd about these, and some other modern Japanese coins, is just how much they are listed as being worth in circulated grades in the Krause Books. This one, Y#87, is from 1983 and has a mintage of 240 million. How could this coin, which I presume may still circulate over there, possibly be worth $7 in EF? Is this way too high, or is there actual demand for these coins even in circulated conditions? Is this indicative of a lot of Japanese coins being represented as far more valuable than they actual are?



The-Reality-Of-Japanese-Coin-Values


The-Reality-Of-Japanese-Coin-Values
Edited by Archraz
09/11/2009 9:34 pm
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swamperbob's Avatar
United States
5362 Posts
 Posted 09/11/2009  10:14 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add swamperbob to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I think you are pointing to a very common problem with modern circulating coins. Krause or any other pricing reference essentially is a listing of what a collector would pay at a full service coin dealer. Have you ever looked up the value of a common US cent from the 1980s in AU? That number is typically 10 times face value. A typical G4 cent from the same era is 5 cents (a 500%) increase over face value. Would any collector pay that much when all you have to do is look through a couple rolls and get one at Face Value?

The presumption inherent in high book prices is the high cost of keeping a dealer stock of all dates and types on hand. This is the "old way" of doing business - from the 1950s.

I can recall when I first went to coin dealers shops in the 1950s that they all had extremely large inventories - every date, mint and denomination was represented. It was an expensive way to deal in coins. The more recent way is to trade internationally over the Internet so that any coin is easily available and multiple sources is NOT a problem. Just like a clearing house for books like Amazon - the less need for large inventories in multiple locations actually translates to lower actual prices.

Not so much actual worth but just what you would expect to pay.
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Archraz's Avatar
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3499 Posts
 Posted 09/11/2009  11:08 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Archraz to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
So one would in fact expect to pay $7 for one of these in EF in a shop? Interesting.
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Australia
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 Posted 09/11/2009  11:54 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add gxseries to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Archraz, the face value of 500 yen is more than 5USD. Sure you may be shocked that such a high face value coin circulates in Japan but the lowest denomination for a Japanese banknote is 1000 yen, which is more than 10USD.

If I am not mistaken, the number of the older version of 500 yen has been decreasing as the Japanese mint is culling the older denomination from circulation. Reason being a fair number of vending machines are not taking them as there was a flood of foreign coins modified to make the vending machines think they are 500 yen coins.
My partial coin collection http://www.omnicoin.com/collection/gxseries
My numismatics articles and collection: http://www.gxseries.com/numis/numis_index.htm
Regularly updated at least once a month.
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Archraz's Avatar
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3499 Posts
 Posted 09/12/2009  12:06 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Archraz to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
gxseries- Oh, I knew that it had a rather high face value, which is why I was happy to pay 25 cents for them. So is the vending machine issue the only reason why the Japanese government is trying to remove all of the old 500s? Does this mean that many of these coins have been removed and melted?
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Australia
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 Posted 09/12/2009  12:33 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add gxseries to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Archraz, you need to know that there are a significant number of vending machines in Japan. Most ATM machines around the world do not take coins for deposit but some banks do allow that.

Here is something interesting that I found in wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vending_machine

Japan has the highest number of vending machines per capita, with about one machine for every 23 people. [9]

The first vending machine in Japan was made of wood and sold postage stamps and post cards. About 80 years ago, there were vending machines that sold sweets called "Glico". In 1967, the 100-yen coin was distributed for the first time, and vending machine sales skyrocketed overnight,[citation needed] selling a vast variety of items everywhere.

In 1999, the estimated 5.6 million coin- and card-operated Japanese vending machines generated $53.28 billion in sales. Vending machine goods and services can cost as little as 50 and as much as 3,000 yen.

And this is a rather hilarious site: http://www.sonic.net/~anomaly/japan/vending.htm
My partial coin collection http://www.omnicoin.com/collection/gxseries
My numismatics articles and collection: http://www.gxseries.com/numis/numis_index.htm
Regularly updated at least once a month.
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Jays-Dad's Avatar
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790 Posts
 Posted 09/12/2009  5:18 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Jays-Dad to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I can appreciate the Japanese vending systems, I was in South Korea recently and you can buy all kinds of funky stuff in them. Books in subway terminals are the most obvious, but the variety of other things is kind of mind boggling (toothbrushes, tampons, etc, etc, etc). Particularly strange since stores to sell these types of items are rarely more than a block away (in any direction). However, on the same trip I saw vending machines at the airport in America that were selling items as high as $300 (ipods and Nintendo DS's). The American vending machines took credit cards.
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Jays-Dad's Avatar
United States
790 Posts
 Posted 09/12/2009  5:25 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Jays-Dad to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Oh yeah, visiting your original question, yes, I am not surprised that recent Japanese coins are worth a lot. You need to know the mindset of older Asian people, they think that something as silly as collecting coins is the craziest thing they've ever heard of (definitely not something for a grown person). Why in the world would anyone ever save these things, they are money which is intended to be spent. The younger generation thinks somewhat similarly, but there is at least a minority that think like us weird Americans. Because of this there was a whole generation of coins that NO ONE was saving and a new generation that is interested in getting them, you have a situation of low supply and high demand. This pattern is going to emerge in many parts of the world, including Russia and China in the next few years. Get yours now while you can.
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Archraz's Avatar
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 Posted 09/12/2009  6:17 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Archraz to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Jays-Dad- Oh I totally agree that demand is going to rise in Russia, China, and probably India as well in the near future.

I must say that I am a bit surprised about the older generations in Japan not being that interested in Numismatics. Japan has the reputation of having such an overdeveloped entertainment industry, which has yielded such booming collector markets in the past (i.e the Pokemon franchise, collectibles relating to other anime/manga, video games, & etc). As a country that in some ways is depicted as epitomizing the consumer market, you would think that numismatics, being related to something (such as history) not viewed as frivolous as modern mass pop culture, that the older generations would catch the collecting bug.

I have a feeling that there probably are many who are older and are numismatists. But there really is the possibility that modern coinage is not viewed as worth saving, so only coins from, say, the Meiji Period and back are collected. If this also is true, then there could also be collector market that is a bit stunted by the fact that before the Meiji Restoration, the coinage used was undated cash coins, silver Ichibu, and gold Ryo. The latter two were also melted in great numbers in the late nineteenth century. So this really does cut down on what is even available to collect.
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Jays-Dad's Avatar
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 Posted 09/12/2009  7:16 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Jays-Dad to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I've got Korean in-laws and I know they think similar to Japanese people. They just don't care about this kind of thing. They don't understand it. My brother-in-law just shakes his head. They view coin collecting as supremely childish. I have a really hard time telling Korean people that I collect coins because of the social stigma involved. The only reason I can get away with it is that I hold the highest social status occupation in their eyes (professor). Because they automatically hold me in high esteem because of my occupation, they usually at least pretend that collecting coins has some nobility to it, but deep down, you can tell they both don't get it and don't respect it.
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Archraz's Avatar
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 Posted 09/12/2009  8:12 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Archraz to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Jays-Dad-hmm, very interesting point. But are you sure that this is how the majority of people there feel? After all, there are Korean proof sets and commemorative coins issued. Even in the states it seems that you will get that same reaction (Well, that and the presumption that you are rich), yet there still is quite a population of numismatists.

It is great that academics are well-respected over there. (It really should be that way here). Also, I'm glad to hear of a professor who is a numismatist since it has been my observation that many within academia, especially within the areas of History and other social sciences, tend to have a very low opinion of the hobby.
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Australia
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 Posted 09/13/2009  02:26 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add gxseries to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I kinda of disagree - all you need is a bunch of extreme coin collectors and that dramatically changes the equation how expensive scarce coins can be. Taking for example in modern Korean and Japanese coinage, try looking for a Korean UNC 1970 10 won (old version) or a UNC die clashed Japanese 1946 50 sen. Link for the 1970 10 won: http://www.hwadong.com/auction/onli...id=100029855

For a rough idea what that is in USD - let's say it's about 880USD.

In general, most coins were struck in terms of millions and hence there aren't that much value to most of them. Scarce coins especially in good condition will set you back quite a fair bit of money.

How about thinking it this way - isn't it a lot easier to collect coins from countries where there's a lot less competition?
My partial coin collection http://www.omnicoin.com/collection/gxseries
My numismatics articles and collection: http://www.gxseries.com/numis/numis_index.htm
Regularly updated at least once a month.
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swamperbob's Avatar
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 Posted 09/13/2009  07:59 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add swamperbob to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
gxseries You are indicating that it is NOT the coin itself that is rare "they made millions" it is the condition only that is rare. A nice presentable AU of the same coin could be well within reach of the average collector.

In my opinion, the "valuable" rarities of the MS68 up class are overvalued at the present time. Prices have been driven artificially high by speculators and investors who are interested in profit margins. I know people (some very good friends) who buy only slabbed high grade coins for an investment. They absolutely know NOTHING about the coin and could not care less. They stash their coins away and never look at them. They have a list - like a stock portfolio and watch as prices rise and fall on spread sheets. Those are the "collectors" who are driving this investment bubble.

Is it overinflated? Is it going to expand or burst? I just refuse to get on the band wagon.

I can remember when there was only one grade of Uncirculated and that was a happier time with lower prices. Coins came out of pocket change and you were happy with what you were able to find. Of course you were always looking to upgrade your 1955S to one that had a bit of mint luster, but it was much more fun. The coins themselves were fun. Even foreign coins, which came mostly from "junk boxes" in New England were more fun. That is where I started finding old contemporary circulating counterfeit coins when I was 10 years old.

I know everyone seems to want the MS70 copy of every coin, but I prefer a lightly worn copy VF or EF or so - and a bit toned or even dirty to show off the details. That coin in VF also circulated a bit. The MS70 never did that it never went into any-one's pocket. It was never spent as money.

Perhaps it is the romantic attachment to coins, wondering who might have spent this coin - that is one of the primary reasons I collect. I am very content to own a lower grade and will not pay an excessive premium for a high grade coin. If more people felt that way prices would fall at the top end and perhaps the true coin collectors would return to the hobby.
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Archraz's Avatar
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 Posted 09/13/2009  1:36 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Archraz to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I really have to agree with swamperbob in that way too much attention (and money) is placed upon ultra-high grade coins. When looking at a coin, most experienced numismatists can't tell the difference between a MS67 and a MS68. And if you were to submit a coin, have it come back as a 67, crack the slab, and then rinse and repeat, you will find that the grade will vary a wee bit each time.

In addition, if you have such a high-grade coin, it can be really hard to tell it apart from a number of other high grade coins of the same type and date. Say that your MS67 morgan was stolen, and broken out of the slab, and that the same thing had happened to other collections which contained the same coin in the same grade. When seeing the lineup of recovered coins, it would be difficult to determine which was yours.

In many ways coins that are, say, EF-lower MS have a lot of detail but also have a lot of character. For instance, I recently acquired a 1903S Peso from the Philippines in upper AU. It has almost all detail, but is kind of dark. It looks great to me and has a very unique look to it. So I do not plan to ever upgrade it.

Ultimately, I think that this phenomenon of collecting very high-grade coins is due to the fact that in some countries, such as the US and Canada, there only have been coins minted officially by the government for a couple of centuries or fewer. So this means that one who collects coins of these countries only are able to collect so many series and from so many dates. By contrast, a person from, say France, can collect coins from the past 2000 years that were minted in what is now France. I know that I personally would rather collect more nice Ecus from the 18th century, hammered coins from the middle ages, and Roman coins than worry about upgrading my MS65 1977 50 Frank coin to a MS66.
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 Posted 09/13/2009  2:19 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add gxseries to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Gentlemen, I think I didn't make myself clear with my previous post. By UNC, I did not discriminate the difference between MS61-MS68 nor intended to talk about "how 1 point grading difference makes huge value difference". The above 10 won that I've illustrated is just a PCGS MS64.

Suppose if we can safely assume that almost everyone in Japan and Korea cared less about coin collecting - back then their economy wasn't doing so well, people just couldn't afford to stash money. From what I have been seeing about the Korean coin market, a significant number of uncirculated Korean coins are offered from overseas market, not within Korea. Would you think that it's unreasonable for me to claim that because there is a lack of people back in the 70s that did appreciate coin collecting caused a shortage of decent grade coins and hence causing collectors to look abroad?

Condition itself is one big factor that does affect price. Trust me, try looking up uncirculated or about uncirculated coins or even XF of the following if you do have the time or happened by any chance to look at Korean coins:

1959 10 hwan
1966 1 won
1970 10 won (old type)
1970 100 won
1972 50 won

Although they might have been struck in millions, reality wise they are much tougher to find in reasonable condition. I am not aware if there have been any major scrap program but maybe a possiblity with the 1959 10 hwan and 1966 1 won. This list is based upon my experience looking for these coins for a few years and after many attempts sending emails to random sellers. They did cost a few pretty dollars even though their face value is less than a few cents. There are a few more coins that are difficult to locate which I haven't but don't quite remember them off my head.

Japanese coins on the other hand while in general seems to undervalued or perhaps overpriced with its current commemorative coins, scarce coins are sold at what they deserve. For instance Japanese oban, Trade dollars, gold coins such as this one: http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-...80225a3.html
My partial coin collection http://www.omnicoin.com/collection/gxseries
My numismatics articles and collection: http://www.gxseries.com/numis/numis_index.htm
Regularly updated at least once a month.
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Bacchus2's Avatar
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 Posted 09/14/2009  5:03 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Bacchus2 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
This has been a great discussion - thanks for it all.

Just a minor point about grading - I see lots of mention of MS this or that - but as I dont' live in the US I have Zero experience of slabbed coins (which to me just seems like dealers ways of artifically causing rarity and converting a coin into a commodity). I mostly collect ancients which arn't slabbed to any extent but I have over 10,000 coins in my collection - none of which is slabbed and indeed I've never even bought a slabbed coin and "freed it" :D

Maybe it's an ancients thing - but I'd never spend any time micro analysing the thing for grade. It's either a nice coin or it isn;t, and I really agree with the previous poster that said a coin with some use has more "history" to it - which is really my reason for collecting the things in the first place

Happy collecting

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