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 Replies: 21 / Views: 4,316 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4989 Posts |
These coins are essentially 95/5 "scrap brass". In any quantity that a collector could easily accumulate, fair market value would be about 60% of the spot price or -- about 1.5 cents. That is a good ceiling for the value which reflects the fact that a recycler has to find buyers, transport the material, etc...
Virtually nobody hordes brass ingots as an investment so I believe there is no market for that. One could develop at MUCH higher price points but, right now, it is grossly impractical given how much storage is required. There are markets for .999 copper ingots but these coins are not .999 copper. In fact, they are as different from .999 copper as the Earth is from the Moon and it would probably take the equivalent of a personal Apollo Project to figure out how to get elemental copper back out of an alloy. Hint: get a PhD in Chemistry and contact NASA :)
Since there is no established industrial market for 95/5 brass, I believe the value would need to further discounted to reflect the fact that it needs to be reprocessed into an industrially useful alloy.
Why is that value a ceiling? The reason is that there is no established spot price for 95/5 scrap brass and there appear to be no industrial buyers for it. I have reviewed factory listings and they all want different alloys. Hence, an unscrupulous foreign outfit would likely need to convert 95/5 back into some more industrial brass or bronze that is readily used. Converting an alloy back to elemental copper is not economically viable and converting to a different alloy is expensive.
So... considering these factors I think we arrive at intrinsic value of somewhere just North of 1 penny but shy of 1.5 cents. Split the difference and I say 1.25 cents
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
11951 Posts |
I was thinking pre 82 cents .. are 95 percent copper ..
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New Member
United States
5 Posts |
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New Member
United States
24 Posts |
I think that is a fair assesment. I don't know if there will ever be a market for pennies as scrap metal.
I believe if they were legal to sell, most scrap buyers would purchase them as #2 copper. I've started keeping all per 82 cents. I am the high priest of scrap hoarders in my neck of the woods.
This morning I hauled a load of copper, brass and steel to my local yard. #1 copper was 3 bucks a pound and #2 was 2.80 a lb. My situation is a little different than most. I have the space to store them and I deal a lot with scrap metals. I really can't say copper cents are worth hoarding, but I know China is buying more and more copper every year.
I wish I would have started hoarding silver 30 years ago.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3592 Posts |
The only problem I have with people that argue so strongly against hoarding copper cents is: What is your motive ?
I see a few people on here doing it and it always comes back to that question.I know they are being hoarded because the percentage is going down every year.And I know my bank sends all their pennies to the Fed every week..is the Fed hoarding them ? I know they wouldn't tell us. Also, isn't the 95/5 mix used in brass cartridge cases ? The price shot up on those because of a shortage.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
958 Posts |
copper is at a all time high or 4$ a lb.
reason why copper is less in circulation ?
09-58 = hoarded becuase of wheat cents being discountinued.
59-81 = 22 years of copper memorial cents in circulation
83-2010 = 27 years of zinc/copper
Zinc/copper cents would be 60% of the population be defualt just due to production numbers if all the copper were still in circulation.
27 years of zinc cents would account for %40 of the cents in population.
Most hoarders claim they find a copper cent for every 2 cents
meaning copper cents are 30-35% of the population.
With 5% of cents being damaged or removed for circulation through other means, lost , corroded,fires,weishing wells your back to 35% in circulation.
So there is not " mass hoarding "
simply the number of zinc/copper cents have been produced longer and high numbers then copper cents
Sure some are saving ,
When copper falls back fown to $1-2 a lb agian like last year it did
the cents will be worth .05 to 1.2 cents in value and most small time hoarders that cant afford to hold onto them put them back into circulation.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
958 Posts |
* I ment copper would be the other %40 by defualt if no cents were removed from circultion
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Pillar of the Community
United States
958 Posts |
BTW I think someone awhile added up all the copper cents from 59-81 22 years
83-2010 27 years of zinc
and came up with 38% copper in circulation if none were removed and the other 62% zinc/copper
wich put the number right into a margin of 5% +/- what most hoarders find in public circulation when they sort coins
People dont realize but to make a dent in the copper cent population you would prob have to hoard a few trillion cents
I think what is happening is alot of people have never seen copper at $4 a lb
just like they have not seen silver at 30$ a ounce.
So its kinda a shock to the youngsters.That are buying silver and copper hoping silver will be 50$ a ounce and copper will be 8$ a lbs .
Most hoarders my guess are born between 1963 ( 47 years old or younger )to current meaning they were 18 years older or younger and were to young to get in on the 79-80 silver rush when it happened
Most of the old timers prob 57-75+ were active duringthe silver crazy in 79-80 and know what goes up must come down and after the fall they will be able to get silver for 5-10$ a ounce and copper for its $.75 - 1.00 by the lbs if they want to and it will be like the metal crazy never happened .
just like from 82-2008 20-25yr of cheap copper and silver with tiny fluctuations in price
My guess is in 2012-2014 precious metals will comeback to normal prices
gold 500$ a ounce maybe lower , silver 10-15$ ounce maybe lower ,copper 1-2$ lb
Then you have around 10-20 years to stock pile metals for next to nothing and cash in 20 years later
based on the past run ups of gold and silver.
Copper just does what it always does gets to 4 a lb maybe this time 5 a lb then just falls flat agian.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3592 Posts |
coppertop....who are most hoarders ? Those of us that share our info on here are at about 20%.
And it would be one in every three to make 33%
And who mentioned "mass hoarding " ?
Once again...I ask "What is your motive ?"
The only two reasons I can see for people to discourage are: They work for the mint or they are hoarders.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
12437 Posts |
Quote:
Converting an alloy back to elemental copper is not economically viable Sure it is, industrial smelters do it all the time. Of course, you will not get pure elemental copper(you don't get that from refining ore either) but it will be 99+%. Zinc has a boiling point of 907C while copper's boiling point is much higher at 2562C, heat the alloy at over 1100C and the copper will melt while the zinc boils off leaving only the copper. It is definitely not rocket science so there is no need to contact NASA  |
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
4989 Posts |
Interesting... I thought this thread would provoke some good responses I think 1.50 might be the better figure since the 95/5 alloy is useful for bullet casings.
While technically possible, I think the energy inputs for boiling off the zinc would make elemental recovery impractical so much more likely it would be resold as that gilding metal alloy. I guess we don't need NASA though :)
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4989 Posts |
Note I am not discouraging hoarders quite the opposite a 1.50 cent per penny valuation means you make 50 cents, immediately, paper gain, for every buck of pennies found. If you are sitting at home unemployed pumping boxes into multiple sorting machines I think you are crushing minimum wage.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
958 Posts |
Im not discouraging hoarders.I discouraging people paying above face for them and saving them
I did the same thing untill last year hoarded close to 15,000 60-70's copper cents when copper dropped/crashed from almost $4.00 to $1.10 back in 09 then suddenly this hoard was worth less then face in copper value.
Then I relized how big of a waste it was ( atthat time )
history shows copper does not get much over 4$ a lb then drops very fast with in weeks
If history showed different then I would have held for the long run being history usually repeats itself.
If anyone wants to sell copper cents and make a profit . Go for it I ENCOURAGE PROFIT !
Only thing I discourage is people paying more then face for coppr cents as a gamble thinking they will get rich .
I sorted out all the best copper from my hoard and only ending up keeping the nice S mint marks from 68-74
I feel those will bring a prem in the future.(20 - 30 yrs )
Fenton yes if someone is unemployed and does this DEF A WAY TO BE YOUR OWN BOSS and make more then min wage
USING SORTING MACHINES would be the only way though.
If someone can sort 150,000 cents and get 50,000 copper
200$ and make $100 a week heck its not alot of money but its still a $100 a week
or $5200 a year. ( provided copper stays high for a year , it usually falls every year)
I just dont see it being a long term thing. As copper comes back down I can see people sitting around the garage with sorting machines collecting dust.
If they decide to hoard 100,000 cents for the " next " rise in copper to 4$ a lb agian that is there choice.
I can see people that hoarded these cents at 1.5 censt each fustrated and just spending the coins.
Personally I would sell at the 1.25 -1.50 cents per coin and cash in
being you will not have to invest much becuase you keep turing the coins over and keeping profit
using the profit to buy more coins, You also dont have to worry if copper falls you can always spend it and not loose anything. Just maybe the investment of the sorting machines.
If anyone wants to invest in copper just wait till it crash to $1.00 a lb as it always does
then go buy a few 100 lbs cubes and stash them away
being copper by the pound from scrap will only be $1.00 a lb
and copper from pennies will be around $1.50 in pennies.
I am serious about buying a few 100lbs of copper for my self at 1.00 a lb and waiting then selling for $3.00 a lb when copper gets $4.00+ agian ( $ scrap buyers usually pay %60-%70 of value for metals then resale )
this way there is no gamble about a ban being lifted on copper cents
The stats I posted are true you can not deney .
Zinc/copper cents have been in production 27 years
copper cents 22 years .
the amount of copper/zinc cents in population is huge becuase they have been minted longer and more amounts.
In another 10 years copper would be around 20% then 20years down to maybe 10-15% as the amount of zinc coins rise in circulation. So that could be one reason to save the nice ones for a fact they will be lesser in circulation
Dont get me wrong its a no lose brianer . YOU WILL MAKE A PROFIT SORTING COPPER AND SELLING IT AND NOT LOOSE IF YOU PAY FACE.
BUT YOU CAN LOOSE IF YOU PAY ABOVE FACE FOR THE COPPER.
My suspect is that these people paying 1.25 -1.50 cents might have away of shipping these cents out of the country say to canada or mexico to a " cent collector "and what happens to them happens to them.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
958 Posts |
my stance is " take a profit if you can sell for more then face do so "
Your much better flipping 100,000's of copper cents and making .025-.05 cents profit over and over selling millions of cents ,and keeping the profit
Then gambling by saving 100,000 for yourself many years waiting for a copper ban to be lifter that may never lift or copper bottoming out real low a long time and you made no profit
some profit is better then no profit
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Pillar of the Community
United States
958 Posts |
Also maineman you are not "hoarding copper".
you are simply seperating it and reselling it to hoarders.
Big diff, you are making a profit and the hoarder/buyer may not.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3592 Posts |
Coppertop...all of these discussions have been about pulling them out of circulation..not buying them.
And if you know the history of copper will repeat itself, why did you dump yours when it fell to $1 ?
You wrote an awful lot and did not answer the first 3 questions I asked above, any reason ?
Fenton, yes a 50% return on your money is as good as it gets....even if you are sitting at home roll searching,retired, and loving it.
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Replies: 21 / Views: 4,316 |
Posted 12/04/2010 2:41 pm
