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What Are The Chances....

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bobbymeru's Avatar
United States
285 Posts
 Posted 03/16/2011  12:36 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add bobbymeru to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
Since I only need 3 of the key dates to complete my Lincolns and 3 of the semis, I was thinking what are the chances I would ever find them. Anyone hear of stories of someone finding a key date Lincoln in recent years?
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Scooby Due's Avatar
United States
4000 Posts
 Posted 03/16/2011  12:40 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Scooby Due to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
There's always hope! There was an '09-S VDB found at a gas station last year:
https://goccf.com/t/68794
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biokemist6's Avatar
United States
12437 Posts
 Posted 03/16/2011  1:20 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biokemist6 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Even blind hogs find an acorn once in a while but I would not count on the slim hope of finding key/semi-key date Lincolns by roll searching. Even finding more common modern keys are very tough- 1950D Jefferson nickel and 1970S Small Date cent come to mind and both can be found in circulation but it is still literally a needle in a haystack search for them.
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United States
3184 Posts
 Posted 03/16/2011  1:25 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mkman123 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
like a needle in a haystick, very very very low chance.
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Merc Crazy's Avatar
United States
201 Posts
 Posted 03/16/2011  1:25 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Merc Crazy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I'm gonna get every single one from circ no matter how long or how many boxes it is gonna take me.

I expect I'll be searching nearly the rest of my life, though.
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sich0015's Avatar
United States
255 Posts
 Posted 03/16/2011  1:42 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sich0015 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
That's a good question. Literally what are the chances? It's probably less than one in a million, maybe one in 10 or 20 million. There is always a chance, but it is extremely low. The closest thing to a key date Lincoln that I have found is a 1931 plain.
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LastGold's Avatar
United States
228 Posts
 Posted 03/16/2011  1:57 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add LastGold to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
MercCrazy:

I can't see it happening with Lincoln Cents, as you would need not just the 09s vdb, but the 1914d - 31s etc...

In the early 80's after silver crashed from its' high of nearly $50 - I found many coins in silver bag dime searching worth $3-$4 apiece as numismatic coins. In fact, I filled out full Mercury dime collections (minus the 16d and the 21's). I actually did get one set completely filled - except for the 16-d ! Took only 10 years to do it...

When copper goes up, and the government rescinds its' ban on melting copper cents - look for a similar thing to happen. People will melt lots of copper cents - making wheat cents, and coins like 68s through 74s coins prime for the melting pot. It is not quite the opportunity for rag picking that silver bags were in the 80's but it is something to be ready for...

Besides, when silver tops $100 an oz. we are going to get an encore to the great silver melt of the 80's. Look for virtually everything, except for key coins of course, to be going into the melting pot! Even Barber coinage, and Silver dollars will be melted.

It's a great time to be a rag-picker
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eaglefoot's Avatar
United States
6326 Posts
 Posted 03/16/2011  2:27 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add eaglefoot to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I am not now, nor have I ever been, one of those collectors who "HAS" to have a certain Set COMPLETELY found from circulation.
I absolutely would like to find all I "could" that way.....but it means nothing to me that they all were or weren't found from circulation....or some bought from the coin shop. Makes no difference whatsoever to me.

I needed the '50 D, and a couple more Jeffersons for my "circulated" folder to be complete recently.....and I got those couple from CCF members !
I would do the same for ANY denomination or for any Dansco or any "folder", or whatever !
The "pride factor", for me, isn't that they were "found" completely from circulation.... but rather that it is C.O.M.P.L.E.T.E. .....and I'm the one who built it !
Bought...... sold.....traded.....found......doesn't matter to me...... however the job gets done ! ......

But I am "picky" with many other things......for instance, I probably have over TWO HUNDRED War Nickels now. But I don't have ONE SINGLE War Nickel that meets my standards enough to go into my Dansco for them. Therefore, until I "purchase" or "trade" for one of these, I'll have empty holes there.
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Merc Crazy's Avatar
United States
201 Posts
 Posted 03/16/2011  2:40 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Merc Crazy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
LastGold;

In the past three weeks or so, I've filled two fairly tough holes; a 1922-D and a 1913-S.

I'm a firm believer that it can be done, it'll just be extremely difficult, time consuming, and will require some luck... But why not try?
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Gothic Florin's Avatar
United States
2541 Posts
 Posted 03/16/2011  3:27 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Gothic Florin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I have stats on my finds, and I'm going to calculate what % I have. I live on the East coast, and the S mints are very hard to find here. I doubt I will ever find a complete set, but if I could get 90% of the way there I would be very pleased!
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Maineman750's Avatar
United States
3592 Posts
 Posted 03/16/2011  3:50 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Maineman750 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
40+ years and no 09-s,09-s vdb, 14-d,31-s..still trying though
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Nobis1's Avatar
United States
364 Posts
 Posted 03/16/2011  5:01 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Nobis1 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Wow Maineman - 40 years and never found any of those? I guess I will be buying a few pennies then.

Interestingly, my daughter's first box (which is not done yet), has coughed up a 1911P, 1913S and a 1916S among other wheats. I am dying to open the remaining 10-15 rolls (she has been slow to open b/c of school/other activities). But, I am not going to. She has really enjoyed finding the old wheats.
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Kefiroth's Avatar
United States
1431 Posts
 Posted 03/16/2011  6:28 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Kefiroth to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Doesn't count as a key date technically, but I found a proof 1911 cent in a roll.
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Newbismatic's Avatar
United States
380 Posts
 Posted 03/16/2011  11:50 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Newbismatic to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Finding the wheats is always a fun activity. I've gone through 3 boxes and I've found 36 wheats... about that pace for you guys?
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muddler's Avatar
United States
7184 Posts
 Posted 03/16/2011  11:53 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add muddler to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I was fortunate enough to grow up in an age where you could find the coins to fill your holes out of curculation. But when the need to fill a few holes for completion was too great I started buying coins. Now I focus on quality coins with great eye apeal and the holes in my walker set will stay as I won't accept a good to fine 21 or 1919d to just fill the hole. So many coins, so little $ and time.
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Wild Bill's Avatar
United States
744 Posts
 Posted 03/17/2011  01:18 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Wild Bill to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I found a 1970-S small date last night, 1909 VDB and 1910-S last year

so what I'm saying is that I believe you really only have a chance finding semi-keys

coppercoins posted that the 1970-S small date is like 1 in 1.2 million to find now

i am addicted to "one more box"
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