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 Replies: 11 / Views: 8,912 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
721 Posts |
For background information, I posted a similar thread on Lincoln Cents: https://goccf.com/t/88992#735292Once again, I found it useful to sort the Jefferson nickels into two groups: 1938-1963 and 1964-2009. I find that many people keep the pre-1964 nickels and there is a big jump in mintage production at this split. The values listed are z-value scores for the log(mintage) WITHIN EACH GROUP. A very negative value indicates key and semi-key dates. For comparison sake with the wheat Lincoln cents, a value of -2.2 or less were for the key dates and -1.5 to -2.2 were for semi-keys. Here are the results for the 1938-1963 Jefferson nickels (sorted by z-value). I have listed the "top 10": 1950-D -2.49 1939-D -2.24 1938-S -2.10 1938-D -1.85 1939-S -1.67 1951-S -1.52 1955 -1.47 1949-S -1.32 1950 -1.31 1948-S -1.19 Generally, the top 5 have been considered to be "key dates", but in comparison to the Lincoln wheat cents, perhaps only the top 3 are "key dates" whereas the 1938-D, 1939-S, and the 1951-S should be considered as "semi-keys". Just my opinion. Here's where it gets interesting. With the more modern nickels (1964-2009) here are the results (again the "top 10"): 2009-P -3.58 2009-D -3.34 1968-D -2.33 1968-S -2.14 1971 -2.09 1967 -2.08 1969-S -1.88 1965 -1.72 1966 -1.52 1975 -1.29 Here we can see the rarity of the 2009 nickels! According to these values, there are plenty of semi-key nickels amongst the more modern ones. Comments? Thanks for reading... |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
10284 Posts |
Interesting data, did you arrive at this from mintage numbers or by price guide or by roll search. In the second group, I think that 1982 and 1983 P&D should hold a place ahead of 1975 though. Also, if you are looking for nice 1975 nickels, mint set cut singles are often high grade with good step count for bargain prices.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
721 Posts |
wheezydog: these are strictly based on mintage values. There may be other reasons to determine a rare find.
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Valued Member
Canada
311 Posts |
Wow Drdave. You must have a lot of spare time. What I am wondering is this. Are there statistics of how many people collect coins for each year. Can you somehow add this to your equation. What I am thinking is this. Right now I believe there are more people collecting coins than any time in history. All collectors know that the 2009 nickels are rare and I think there are a lot of collectors that have put them aside. In 1909 I don't think there was that many collectors so I think it makes coins from that era even harder to find. In 1950 I wonder how many collectors pout aside their 1950D with their low mintage? I do like where you are going with this thread.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
594 Posts |
If I'm looking at this right, it would be harder to pull a 2009 than a 1950D from roll searching?  I collect and save pre-1960 Jeffersons. When I roll search, should I be pulling 68D and 68S as well? I already keep the 09s. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
721 Posts |
KenRingold: I am comparing the relative mintage within each group. The 68D and 68S were low mintage nickels, relative to the newer minted nickels. The modern nickels have become so populated that it is really tough to find a 2009. Yes, it is tougher than IF you were roll-searching back in 1959 and looking for a 1950-D. If you were searching today, no, it is still tougher to find a 1950-D. For example, if I did NOT SPLIT the nickels into two groups, the results are as follows:
1950-D -2.84
1939-D -2.64
1938-S -2.54
1938-D -2.35
1939-S -2.20
1951-S -2.09
1955 -2.05
1949-S -1.94
1950 -1.93
1948-S -1.83
Notice that these numbers are more skewed now when I include the modern nickels. The 2009-P comes in at #33 at -0.96, and the 2009-D comes in at #39 at -0.85. Hope that helps.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
594 Posts |
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New Member
United States
4 Posts |
Interesting... I just started a circulated nickel set, and I can verify that the 2009s are tough. I've been through about 20 rolls and have found 1 2009-D. No Ps.
In fact, the second list is pretty much my "needlist".
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Pillar of the Community
United States
687 Posts |
I generally find about 1 2009P or 1 2009D a box which makes them uncommon, but not rare in circulation.
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Moderator
 United States
15386 Posts |
Great data and an unusual insight to the question of Jefferson nickels scarcity. I would politely argue that the original mintage totals have some bearing ... but limited ... on today's rates at which roll searchers would expect to find the coins ... but that is an academic argument and not intended to detract from your fine work here. Thanks for sharing your insights. David |
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Valued Member
United States
146 Posts |
After having sorted through 18 full boxes, I am truly surprised at my findings. 2 Buffalo nickels, 6 War Nickels, one scarce 1950 in really good shape. However, I have NOT found a single 2009-P. These are definitely very hard to find and appear to have been hoarded in mass quantities. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3755 Posts |
drdave, very good info. Thanks! I just copied it to a word document so I could have it on hand.
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Replies: 11 / Views: 8,912 |
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Posted 05/21/2011 11:52 am
