Are Coin Shows Getting Crazy

Price shock was one of the reasons why I decided to strategically change my numismatic interests way back in the early 1970's.

My current scope of numismatic interest now covers all coins, ancient to modern up to about 1950, all cultures. The only real requirement I now have is that the coin I may be interested in buying was originally intended for circulation. I do make exceptions for patterns, proofs and errors, produced up to about 1950.

With that huge field of interest, finding individual coins that are of high interest and are good value for money are much easier to come by. I would much rather get a scarce coin of a series to build a type set with, than build a whole series of one type or denomination.

The downside is that a large reference library is needed, and you may need professional assistance when considering big ticket items, (especially with ancients), because of a lack of specialist knowledge. That however, does not stop you from buying lower priced items that represent good value for money at the time of purchase.

Basically, I have been a cherry picker of a large section of the whole numismatic field for the last 40 years. A good way to acquire a long term numismatic investment, as well has having a lifelong numismatic interest. You never stop learning.

I have not noticed this at my local coin show, but it could be that I am not looking for it. I seem to have settled on certain dealers over the last few shows, so unless those particular dealers are going crazy, I might not notice.

I am also seeing over RB on some coins, notably IHCs sold by "specialist" dealers.
Overall, it's tougher to find problem-free IHCs that are priced fairly, but that's probably supply/demand.

If I've noticed any trend among dealers, it's that they're not buying new inventory. A lot appear to be slowly closing up.
Perhaps this is putting pressure on prices for popular coins, despite the economy. And, perhaps other dealers are trying to "cash out", and putting their hopes in their stock? Or it could be optimistic pricing, on consignment. Just a lot of speculation on my part, but I suspect that many collections will come up for sale in the next decade, and that collectors just need to be patient; supply will come back.

I do quick browsing around my local show and usually ends up with 1 or 2 dealers that I always have done business with, some of the new dealers that shows up selling 2x - 2.5x more.

One new dealer have his table by the door, and he joke that he haven't earn his fin yet to belong with the rest of the sharks, he sell his coins within numismedia guide prices.

That is an awesome answer and I totally agree with it!

I think too many people interpret the ASE as a coin and not as bullion. The proofs are different, since they are a collector version, but the BU shouldn't be treated as a coin.

In addition to what I mentioned previously about the increase in population of people, many other factors are creating an increase in prices of coins. This system of a 70 point grading makes that jump for the upper 60's appear to be something never seen before and many are out there looking for coins graded as MS-68, -69 and even that elusive -70.
Coins in slabs too have created a jump in coin prices since people pay to have their coins slabbed and graded and then expect that money back when selling. I remember back when all coins were just raw or in 2x2's. Slowly more and more coins are appearing in slabs at coin shows. Lately I think about 50% of all coins at some of the shows I go to are in slabs. A few dealers at one show havea all slabbed coins and thisr prices reflect this.
Dealers are now insuring their inventory more and more due to all the crimes committed on coins. This too has created an increase in what a dealer expects.
So if you note the incrase in population of collectors, insurances, slabbing of coins, selling on the internet that requires postage, handling, Paypal costs, etc., coin prices are increasing acccordingly.

Which only makes sense, if the current market is strong. The time to buy inventory is when coins are cheap.

Another factor to consider is the demographic bulge that comprises the collector base for the past few decades. These guys (and many dealers) have pushed up prices for a good run, but when they retire, pass away, or otherwise cash out--the market is going to be flooded with these collections. There is no insatiable demand, no permanent plateau for any collector item that depends so much on disposable income. This has peaked with a demographic, and the emerging collector base--people who are in their teens, 20s, and 30s today--will set a new price structure. Most of these people won't have gobs of moon money to throw at coins, nor have been bit by the "investor/collector bug" that hit an earlier generation--there is a very large perceptual break at work.

--Just my personal opinion on collecting, and various markets that have been affected by the "boomer bulge"--and the ensuing downside.