Rarity Scales - Same VAM, Different Known Examples

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Author	Replies: 6 / Views: 5,139
Broken-Coin Pillar of the Community United States 1812 Posts	Posted 03/29/2012 2:15 pm I'm not sure if this topic has been discussed before in this forum, and placed this post in the VAM forum as the two examples I list are in reference to VAM rarity... The rarity Scale used in the " CherryPickers Guide" for known examples is based on Q. David Bowers URS (Universal Rarity Scale) and ranges from USR-0 (none known) to USR-20 (250,001 to 500,000 pieces known)... The rarity Scale used in the "Comprehensive Catalog & Encyclopedia of Morgan & Peace dollars" (4th edition) by Van Allen & Mallis uses what looks like the Sheldon Scale (used on large Cents) R-1 to R-8, with the exception that Sheldon's known examples differ from Van Allen-Mallis's known examples... *Photos of both scales posted below* The 2 VAMs listed here are side-by-side examples of how one can be uncertain of just how many known examples exist... The 1st example is a 1888o VAM-4 Morgan dollar... CherryPickers Guide lists this variety on page 334 and listed this as a URS-8 (65 to 125 pieces known)... The Van Allen - Mallis Catalog listed this VAM-4 as a R-5 (several thousand known)... The 2nd example is the 1895s Morgan VAM-3 that also is listed R-5 (several thousand) in the VAM catalog and URS-5 (9 to 16 pieces known) in the CherryPickers Guide... I have a great deal of respect for Q.David Bowers, an Icon in the field of Numismatics for half a Century (IMO), and also believe that the 4th edition - Volume 2 on The CherryPickers Guide may have never been released had it not been for Q.David Bowers when J.T.Stanton was experiencing some of life's challenges that resulted in the failure to publish his Guide one year after the advertised release date... Bowers stepped up to the plate and with Whitman Publishing, printed what I consider a fantastic catalog (when compared to previous catalogs published by Stanton Books and Supplies Inc.)... However, I think Dave (and the proof readers) made a mistake by failing to notice the difference between the two rarity scales used when publishing Cherrypickers... Another coin (not related to VAMs) in the CherryPickers Guide, is a coin I posted in the error & variety forum last year... It is the 1943 Doubled Die Obverse (CONECA 6-0-1) Quarter I submitted to NGC with extra payment for variety listing, and received the coin back as a MS65 without the variety listed on the holder... Having had personal email contact with J.T.Stanton prior to receiving my coin back from NGC, I telephoned Mr. Stanton at PCI and mentioned my experience with NGC, and requested he look at the coin and verify the variety listed in his catalog... J.T. agreed to look at it and place it in PCI's new Signature Series Holder if it was indeed the variety listed... I received this coin back with the correct variety listed on the holder in the same MS65 condition (PCI kept the NGC holder)... This message may seem long, but the primary reason for using this coin as an example is the following; CherryPickers lists the 1943 DDO (CONECA 6-0-1) value in MS65 as $500.00 and gives a rarity rating of URS-3 (3 or 4 known)... Now, if I was the type of person that wanted to rip off someone in what would look like a honest way, and they didn't know the real value of this DDO, I could show them the current Coin World Values Guide that quotes only one listing of a 1943 Double Die Obverse, with a value of $8,500.00 in MS65 condition, along with the certified Quarter in a 1943 Double Die Obverse holder, and advise them that according to Cherrypickers, only 3 or 4 are known and it would be a great investment, for say $5,000.00... I apologize in advance for taking so much of your time reading this, I'm just trying to get my point across that not knowing the real known examples in the collector market can be a costly mistake... Report this Post to the Staff

Bryan1315 Bedrock of the Community United States 14454 Posts	Posted 03/29/2012 2:57 pm LVA pretty much takes a guess at how many are out there when a discovery is found. It is really hard to determine how many are going to be found in the future so this is just an educated guess. Sometimes it is pretty close and sometimes it is way off, but its still an attempt at trying to look into the future by looking at one coin Report this Post to the Staff
Broken-Coin Pillar of the Community United States 1812 Posts	Posted 03/30/2012 12:40 pm I agree with you Bryan, my point is there is a huge difference between both scales and I never really paid much attention to the rarity scale in the CherryPickers Guide until recently, and believe that it is so far out of whack that you can't take it seriously, this is why I included the 1943 DDO Quarter mention in my post... Report this Post to the Staff
Morgans Dad Pillar of the Community United States 5635 Posts	Posted 03/31/2012 1:35 pm This is a very interesting "Reality" topic, I personally take an interest in the statement" Known to date examples", Which to me is rather foolish and could only be a Guesstimate on anyone's part. The simple fact that NOT all Numismatists send in their coins for grading and Lord only knows just who has what and how many examples are actually out there..... I did not want my opinion to sound obnoxious, I just felt this opinion for some time, and took this post to address it.....The reality of the topic is directly related to the rarity scale also, they are another Guesstimate at best...... Report this Post to the Staff
dmr0834 New Member United States 1 Posts	Posted 03/21/2013 4:47 pm Would it be possible to assign a rarity rating based on actual vams known to exist, I.e., they are logged into a data base by a coin identification number similar to how grading service companies document graded coins? The "known to exist" coins would be based on graded coins and would change as more of the same VAM are discovered. There is no way to get an exact number utilizing this type system but would be better than the current definition which is akin to a wild guesstimate. Report this Post to the Staff
oih82w8 Pillar of the Community United States 7840 Posts	Posted 03/22/2013 1:25 pm Between the TOP III TPGers (PCGS, NGC and ANACS) ANACS recognizes the most VAMs, PCGS is pretty selective with whet they consider "worthy" of being attributed. There are several thousand VAM varieties and... "PCGS will attribute 317 Morgan and 52 Peace dollar varieties." http://www.pcgs.com/vamvarieties.html ...and "Most of the VAMs are not significant and do not bring a premium over the common variety. The varieties that PCGS will do have been identified by variety collectors as worthy of specific recognition. They are listed in: The Top 100 Morgan dollar Varieties: The VAM Keys; SSDC Official Guide to the Hot 50 Morgan dollar Varieties; The Official Guide to the Top 50 Peace dollars; The 1878 Morgan dollar 8-TF Attribution Guide; and the VAM book, Comprehensive Catalog and Encyclopedia of Morgan and Peace Dollars." http://www.pcgs.com/varietyfaq.html NGC states; "VAMs are among the most popular of varieties with collectors, and the best ones are identified by NGC as belonging to the Top 100, Hot 50 or Hit List 40 entries. In addition, NGC will attribute all 1878 8-tailfeather and 7/8-tailfeather varieties under it VarietyPlus service. NGC does not recognize any other VAMs at this time." http://www.ngccoin.com/news/viewart...ticleID=1023 None of the TOP III TPGers are on the same sheet of music. Oh yeah, dmr0834 Edited by oih82w8 03/22/2013 1:29 pm Report this Post to the Staff
aladinslamp Pillar of the Community United States 3076 Posts	Posted 03/23/2013 12:02 am one must also consider, the grade of the coin... I do agree with you all on this preponderance of known evidence meaning those that sent there coin in to be graded, and this is the forum in which the numbers are "KNOWN to EXIST",,, for any given coin or VAM for the silver dollar collectors.. My point is when the cash hits the table...MOST times its the grade condition..that brings in the cash..For one...every one can consider.. over a GIVEN amount of time...that a known coin that has been searched for and has not been found....for many years. the coin is hard to find..with consideration of a NEW VAM which people have not been looking for where the only one known will decrease over the next few years...I'm not saying there will be thousands found..as many search to find out what they have and when something new comes to path, a few do surface..but not by the thousands... My ultimate purpose is to hint at the fact that the few known in general have a base pay out, collectors payout much more for the top grades as there collections are being graded..for points receiving the top honors for the to total of the rare coins and the grades they have... RAREITY AND GRADE, are like two sides of a coin....IF say ten coins are known.... one must hope that there is at LEAST ten collectors who will seek out your coin and cash you out....However there are only so many and I can put a number on them, how ever as far as the grade of the coin is concerned...those same top ten collectors will bid for the highest grade the can find for that same rare VAM or coin.. NOTE this is the same for any denomination, its just that here we are lovers of morgan vams.... while a coin can be hard to find,, the grade is significant to its value, as also is... the known grade and value when lesser grades are found for this rare coin.. this is just for a basic knowledge I am speaking, I'm not putting values on any thing but rather to bring some kind of under standing why some coins are bringing huge dollars and other RARE coins or SAY R7 Morgans are not bringing huge money...its a bout not just the rareity... but rather 3 points What people Want to collect... the rare coin for your collection. condition and grade of this holy grail for this coin and its grade...... some like pennies... some like Dollars.... I always say "WHAT WINKS AT YOUR EYE'S" Is what speaks to your heart, and its what you collect...Glass beads Toads, Frogs, Morgan dollars or Lamp shades....its those things that we collect....WHY we pay what we pay or WILL PAY is from these roots.... Report this Post to the Staff
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