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 Replies: 30 / Views: 2,865 |
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Pillar of the Community
United Kingdom
616 Posts |
Goldmart now has ASEs @ $29.22 vs. Pandas @ $29.90. I have never seen a spread this close before. So should people be looking at the higher premium stuff that didn't have it's premium increase much versus the lower premium stuff whose premiums skyrocketed?
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Dont forget the new pandas are being mass produced like the ASEs and Maples now so they wont carry the premium the older years do.
To answer the question I would say yes if the prices are the same anyway go for the stuff that will hold its premiums and arent a result of the gouging, but I dont think the new Pandas fit that mold
Edited by basebal21
04/26/2013 4:22 pm
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Pillar of the Community
 United Kingdom
616 Posts |
Pandas were like 8,000,000 where ASEs are about 40,000,000 from figures I can find. Plus I assume large numbers of Pandas are consumed internally in China. I love ASEs for stacking but personallu see more value ounce for ounce in Pandas. But thet is just one persons opinion.
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Valued Member
United States
456 Posts |
In my opinion, pandas are the choice at such a close spread. I think the premium on eagles will come down at least $1/oz further in the near future while the furthest I see the premium for pandas dropping is $0.24 back to $5.75 over spot as they were before the premium hike. Basebal is right about them now being mass produced, but I still think they are the better choice for an extra $0.68/coin. The airtite the panda comes in alone is almost worth that spread.
Put it this way, if I wanted to buy each of these, I would buy the pandas now, and buy the eagles next when (hopefully) the spread increases to $1.50-$2.00 between the two.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1391 Posts |
Given how close they are I would take the Pandas every time.
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Pillar of the Community
United Kingdom
616 Posts |
SDC
That is how I see it too. Pandas until the premiums normalize again then Eagles.
Edited by starbuxinvestor
04/26/2013 4:30 pm
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Valued Member
United States
456 Posts |
Also, from now on I believe I will only be buying pandas 30 at a time in order to get a mint sealed sheet not only to help ensure authenticity when going to sell, but it also seems to increase the resale value in the secondary market. I could always open the sheet to sell individually if I wanted. . .
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:
Pandas were like 8,000,000 where ASEs are about 40,000,000 from figures I can find. Plus I assume large numbers of Pandas are consumed internally in China. Thats true but 8 million is still a massive number and past the point where bullion coins carry premiums. Even numismatic coins have to be in the highest grades or incredibly old and hard to find to carry premiums with those mintages. The old ones used to be 500-600k then in 2010 they went to 1.5 mil. 2011 went to 6 million then 2012 to 8 million. Theyve also gotten a lot more popular in the US so more are being imported. Even the graded 70s for the 2013 Pandas are selling for 70 something dollars like the ASEs which to me says the new mintage has eroded the premium they used to carry Edited by basebal21
04/26/2013 4:33 pm
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Valued Member
United States
456 Posts |
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Thats true but 8 million is still a massive number and past the point where bullion coins carry premiums. I'll disagree based on the fact that they start selling with a premium and the secondary market to this point has kept that premium. I would agree that the premium will be lower than the earlier issues that were at 600K. In 10 years, I highly doubt you will be able to buy a 2013 panda for the same price that you could get a 2013 eagle or maple. Quote:
Even the graded 70s for the 2013 Pandas are selling for 70 something dollars Actually, $59.95 shipped from Silvertowne right now for either 2012 or 2013 in MS70. In any event, comparing prices for MS70 coins to premiums on raw coins really isn't appropriate. For example, try finding an MS70 maple leaf. . . Edited by SDCrow
04/26/2013 4:55 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:
I'll disagree based on the fact that they start selling with a premium and the secondary market to this point has kept that premium. I would agree that the premium will be lower than the earlier issues that were at 600K. In 10 years, I highly doubt you will be able to buy a 2013 panda for the same price that you could get a 2013 eagle or maple. There premium is basically the same as anything from Australia though. Theyll never be the same price as an ASE or Maple from the fact that they have to be imported from around the world as opposed to a short ship from Canada or somewhere from the mint. Im not that convinced that their premium isn't largely to do with importing them, plus I dont know what the Chinese mint sells them for they may have a higher premium anyway. With this being the new norm theyll be viewed more as bullion and less numismatically every year it continues. But the fact that the high premium for the graded 70s is gone just shows they arent an uncommon coin anymore. I agree theyll always have some sort of premium but at this point its premium seems to logistics instead of numismatic like the older years have |
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Pillar of the Community
United Kingdom
616 Posts |
I agree on buying sheets and think the unique design each year is a plus. Also I think the Temple of Heaven side is one of the best cleanest designs ever.
Edited by starbuxinvestor
04/26/2013 5:07 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Hey Star
what about a roll of those Canadian wildlife coins, the wood bison?
I think... and agree with Baseball... with such a spread so close between the two, I cant help think 1 of two things-
a- Pandas going forward, even with max 8 million mintage, have lost their premium
or
b- theres such a glut of product now and the buying frenzy is over that we are starting to see prices tumble on the coins and dealers want to move product.
As always, price is a key determining factor and I think for that reason A is what I personally will stick with.
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Valued Member
United States
456 Posts |
Starbux, you are right. The changing designs is another bonus for the pandas. Quote:There premium is basically the same as anything from Australia though. Theyll never be the same price as an ASE or Maple from the fact that they have to be imported from around the world as opposed to a short ship from Canada or somewhere from the mint. You can't say that. I bought Perth Koala's for $3.79 over spot from Provident last week, which was dollars below what eagles and maples were being sold for. Quote:
But the fact that the high premium for the graded 70s is gone just shows they arent an uncommon coin anymore. I agree theyll always have some sort of premium but at this point its premium seems to logistics instead of numismatic like the older years have Again, you can't compare the prices for MS70 coins to the premiums for raw coins. Maples sell for a few dollars over spot, but if you ever found an MS70, good luck getting it for the same price as an MS70 eagle. I'm not sure, but the comparable price could just be a reflection of better overall quality of pandas on average and, therefore, more 70s as a percentage of coins produced. Pandas are put directly into capsules, so they aren't banging around in tubes against each other like eagles are. |
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Pillar of the Community
United Kingdom
616 Posts |
YUP
I see the premuim convergence as a symptom of the silver buying panic in the U.S. were people are wanting ASEs because that is what they know. If you notice Maples have not seen the same premium appreciation which I see as further evidence of this belief.
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
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You can't say that. I bought Perth Koala's for $3.79 over spot from Provident last week, which was dollars below what eagles and maples were being sold for. Provident has 2013 pandas for 30 dollars. 2010 are 46 and thats the only other one they have in stock. At APMEX any Panda before 2010 is going for over 100 dollars a coin while 2013 is 35. eBays the same story 2011 and 2012 selling for significantly less than the others. I dont know why their koalas are cheaper than everything else, maybe they have to many, maybe they arent selling, maybe someone just sold them a ton. But no matter what their reason is the large premiums the pandas once enjoyed are gone. Quote:
Again, you can't compare the prices for MS70 coins to the premiums for raw coins. Maples sell for a few dollars over spot, but if you ever found an MS70, good luck getting it for the same price as an MS70 eagle. I'm not sure, but the comparable price could just be a reflection of better overall quality of pandas on average and, therefore, more 70s as a percentage of coins produced. Some of it is higher quality which obviously the maples dont enjoy, but its also the higher mintage as well. PCGS for example before the mintage jump had a couple hundred Pandas a year that would get 70s, now its 10s of thousands of theres more to cherry pick from. The Canadian mints low quality is more of the exception imo. Minting technology has improved which would have raised the amount that got them, but if the mintage was lower theyd have more of a premium than they do. If you look at the 2010s they sell for a significant premium over the 11s and 12s and theres several thousand of the 2010s as well. |
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Valued Member
United States
456 Posts |
All right, this will be my last post on the matter, as I don't want to steal Starbux's thread. Quote:Provident has 2013 pandas for 30 dollars. 2010 are 46 and thats the only other one they have in stock. At APMEX any Panda before 2010 is going for over 100 dollars a coin while 2013 is 35. eBays the same story 2011 and 2012 selling for significantly less than the others. The 2011's and 2012's are significantly lower because they have a higher mintage, and they are only 1 and 2 years old. Of course the current issue won't have appreciated much yet, and still they are selling for $6 and $11 over spot at the two distributors you mention. Quote:
I dont know why their koalas are cheaper than everything else, maybe they have to many, maybe they arent selling, maybe someone just sold them a ton. But no matter what their reason is the large premiums the pandas once enjoyed are gone. Kookaburras and Koals were both selling for $3.89 over at Goldmart last week as well, which was cheaper than eagles and maples as well. They are still priced that way now, though they are out of stock. |
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Replies: 30 / Views: 2,865 |
Posted 04/26/2013 4:12 pm
