Do You Think TPGs Will Last?

I'm sure they will last for a while yet. People like the comfort of having pricey coins authenticated. I'm sure by having a coin in a slab with a high grade makes it easier to sell over the internet also. I have learned though that even if it is in a slab you still need to be sure of the coin you're buying because slabbed coins can be tampered with or someone will fake a slabbed coin.

The grading standards may change over time. Lets take the Mercury dime for example, I have read that FSB was not always looked for when grading. To me it would only make sense for a TPG to adapt to the coin market to keep up with current grading standards. How they adapt and what they change is a guessing game. I am with you though... "buy the coin not the slab"

In one form or another TPG has been with us for nearly 40 years now and is an industry in itself. Like it or not, TPG is here to stay. Major auction houses will not even put raw raw coins in their auctions and that's not about to change.

I agree with SteveCaruso that, "...their "guarantees" (again, outside of authentication) are virtually useless".
Not that that means they are going away, far from it, it's just that as corporations they have been able to insulate themselves from all but the most obvious mistakes thereby strengthening their businesses even more.

Here in the UK TPGS don't have the status they do in the US. Although there are some making inroads.

So I suspect that within the US they will continue because as Neo says, they are a more-or-less integral part of the hobby.

However I am interested (and slightly heartened!) to see that here on CoinCommunity, as on the British coin forum I frequent, not everyone is a fan of them.

Personally I think it's healthy if people start to assess their own coins rather than rely on someone else to tell them if it's nice or not. TPGS were, as I understand it, started to enable dealers to confidently exchange stock unseen. And for more modern coins then it does make it feasible to buy a coin from a list without inspecting it personally or even seeing a photo.

However the further back you go the more individual coins become and the harder it is to just go by grade alone. Particularly when toning or a bit of wear comes into play.

I suspect there will always be those for whom the slab is as important as the coin. I see that as a slightly different sort of collecting. And slabs do serve purpose in protecting the coin. But I hope that in time people might start to question the wisdom of slabbing a $30 or $50 coin and (even for coins costing much more than that.) return to enjoying coins as they are, without feeling the need for someone else's endorsement .. that IMHO would be no bad thing for the hobby.

.

Its all about brand/marketing and not much different than buying stocks. TPGS are here to stay and IMO add value. I look for the top graders eg PCGS/NGC/ICCS and like the added security they provide for my purchases, especially for high end coins. I purchase little raw coins these days and more TPG graded holders. I want the best ROI I can get when I sell. TPGS are redefining the old style of collecting and a peek into the future isn't too hard to see where its going.

I don't "collect" stocks. Nor do I grade them.

"Hmm, this share of Hershey's looks like an AU58 to me. It's had a few owners before. Or should I hold off and splurge for an MS grade share of GE? What do you say PCGS?" :-)

TPGs are here to stay and will continue to grow as more and more counterfeits are out there and as more and more commerce takes to the internet.

In 20-30 years, any coin valued at over $100 will generally be graded or certified as authentic. The risk reward ratio at that point with 20-30 more years of better counterfeits will force that. That includes world coins. Of course, PCGS and NGC could speed up this process by introducting something like 'Cheapest tier' pricing, charging $5-10 to grade coins valued at $100 or less. That would completely revolutionize the market and there would be an absolutely massive change resulting.




All of Saps points are excellent, but this would be the scariest. Not even necessarily this exact scenario, but the widespread PERCEPTION of this could gut the market and cause massive waves. That's one of the things that frustrates me sometimes on these forums when someone states that a coin that has been TPGed is overgraded because the submitter is a high a volume submitter. A widespread conspiracy type theory regarding this could have a strong negative impact on the hobby, IMO.




Excellent point, now here's a counterpoint. To go along with your analogy, many famous chefs may be able to produce some of the most stellar meals on earth, but most are not above a greasy fast food meal once in a while. I can appreciate and would love to own early uncirculated American Copper, but I cannot afford such items, so instead I purchase high quality world coins in my price range. Not necessarily better or worse, just different. It is literally comparing apples to foie gras.

By the way, despite how it sounds, I am not the world's biggest fan of having my coins encased in plastic, but it is a necessary evil, some of the by products like the condition rarity thing drive me nuts, but it's just part of the game.

Oddly, the best ROI potential for me has been buying slabbed British coins that people have bought from US auction houses and then listed on ebay.

That's because some people seem to have an unrealistic idea about how much the market will bear and are prepared to pay over the odds because a coin is in a slab.

Of course it doesn't always work in my favour. There are several £100-£200 coins on ebay right now where the seller is asking over $500 ... but on ebay is where they are likely to stay at those prices.




Possibly. But if you'd written " any US coin valued at over $100 " I'd be more likely to agree with you.

As far as I can tell, apart from the US and to a lesser extent Australia and Canada, few collectors elsewhere are bothered about having their coins slabbed. In fact within the UK and collectors I talk to there's more than a little hostility towards the whole phenomenon.

.