| Author |
 Replies: 15 / Views: 1,429 |
|
|
Valued Member
United States
98 Posts |
I believe the market for coins has peaked because of the run-away pricing. This will continue through the next year. I suggest all of us be prepared for the separation of the collector from the speculator.
|
|
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
1984 Posts |
I don't quite understand what you are saying. Are you saying the market has peaked and prices will be coming down? Usually after a peak, prices will stop going up or else it wasn't really a peak. Are you talking about all coins or only low-end (but still rare) coins, such as the 1909-S V.D.B. Lincoln Cent in lower grades? There are many markets for coins, exactly which ones have peaked in your opinion, and what can we expect from here on in? |
|
Valued Member
United States
470 Posts |
Hmm.. hard worker been working to hard.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
812 Posts |
It could be interesting! In the 40 years I've been collecting, I've never seen coin prices come down (at least not in general: 1950-D nickels peaked then dropped; silver bullion peaked then dropped; plus other "fads"). I've seen coin prices stagnate for several years (which is kinda like a drop, when you figure inflation).
My Prediction: the trends of the last 40 years will continue. (If you've invested in a "fad," you may see a downturn.)
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
2600 Posts |
I have never been one to pay retail for coins and then wait for appreciation to create revenue. If you are collecting this way, the upcoming market could be a little rough. If you work hard, watch trends and spot the real deals you can always make money.
Jim
|
|
Valued Member
United States
68 Posts |
Hardworker2,
If I understand what you are saying, and please correct me if I am wrong, is that coin collecting will return to the hobbyist and the speculators will move on to something else. This will cause the value of coins to either level off and / or stagnate over a period of time?
Edited by JRC
10/22/2007 11:52 am
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
1173 Posts |
If the rise in coin prices is fueled primarily by speculators, then the thesis may be true. If the rise is primarily fueled by increases in demand (more well-healed collectors coming into the market) then I would feel confident in prices continuing to appreciate, though they may not appreciate so rapidly. Baby boomers have a lot of disposable income, and are driving many markets. It would seem reasonable to think they are driving the coin market, too. (or are at least a significant influend.) When they tire of coins, or die, and their collections come onto the market, then we might see a (rare) increase in availability of key dates and mid-range quality. (All of the dealers around here...either in town or that come to our infrequent coin shows...are singing the same song...you can get key dates in poor quality or in very high quality, but the mid-ranges are scarcer than hen's teeth.)
Edited by hunter20ga
10/22/2007 2:17 pm
|
|
Valued Member
United States
204 Posts |
I agree with Hunter. I just went to a coin show yesterday looking for a 1921 Peace dollar in AU. Had a nice (very tempting) offer for a VF for $80 and there were a couple dealers that had 1921s in MS62+, but no one (of 20-25 dealers) had a 1921 Peace in AU. I do think that speculators will get tired of coins, but most of the buying for investment is at the highest grades so it won't make a big impact at the collector grade level. I do look forward to any downturn in the pricing however  ! |
|
Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts |
Same as bilbo. I've been collecting coins since 1943 and so far never noticed a drop in coin prices. Leveled off during recessions a little but just can't remember coin prices dropping. Of course anything is possible so maybe in the year 3409 when they stop the Lincoln Cent coin prices will drop a little. |
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
1952 Posts |
Carl
are you saying I can sale my collection in 3409? lol maybe I can get rich then lol hope I'm there to reap the Binnie's
Gary
|
|
Bedrock of the Community
United States
14454 Posts |
I think what they are trying to say is that when the prices have peaked out the investors will go looking for other things to invest in and the collector may be able to find and afford the coins they have been waiting to buy. The investor is always going to come and go but as far as I can tell really have no true long term effect on prices of true collectible coins, the bullion prices may plummet but the collector coins will still have a demand that will keep their prices strong but they may just level out a little once the investors bail out. I have heard these dooms day the sky is falling statements quite a few time in the short time I have been collecting and have yet to see any real difference in the prices of the coins I am buying or collecting
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
2443 Posts |
Good! Can't wait. Lower prices = more coins for me.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
1327 Posts |
I don't beleave that Proof coins or Cirucalted coins will go down or stop. I common stuff will stay about the same. I feel the Key and Semi Key stuff will contunie to go up. SInce there are so many new collector in the hobby and coins like 1916-D Dime and 1909-SVDB cent will become even more scare.
I do beleave that we will se a demand of gold and silver coin collecting go down some and Lose some value But that do to the fact the the investors will look to try and make money else were. But I think for the most part all coins will keep the same or clime will not go backwards.
|
|
Valued Member
United States
159 Posts |
I believe the coin market has been fueled by several factors in the past few years. First and foremost is the Statehood Quarter program. The quarter is perhaps the most used coin in the U.S. and is one of the biggest changes in coin design in many years. Ike, Sac, and SBA dollars (as well as Kennedy halves)are almost a nuisance to cashiers and the general public. The hobby had been "greying" for many years but now has an infusion of young blood. The weakening of the dollar and the corresponding doubling of metal prices is another big factor. I hope that the Presidential dollar program will keep interest in the hobby strong. Unfortunately, I am afraid that the greed associated with a strong market may if fact hurt it. The profusion of counterfeiters, self slabbers, and other con artists will turn many, many people away from the hobby forever. I hope that the Internet(especially this website) will keep novices well informed and protect them from these thieves. |
|
New Member
United States
12 Posts |
When you explain to the people what real money is, they suddenly recognize with total clarity why you are a "coin collector". ***Edited by Forum Mom to remove link. Although the video is informative, there is a lot of other stuff on this site and I can't guarantee that it is all family-friendly.***
|
|
Valued Member
United States
123 Posts |
I have been watching from the sidelines. The coin market is not easy to predict. However, bull markets don't last forever, and history shows that there are long periods of stagnation. I like the periods of stagnation when everybody is down in the dumps and thinks the market will go nowhere. That is when I buy. At times like this, I hardly buy any coins, and my money goes to other collecting hobbies.
I've been hoping that the market will stagnate for a while because I would like to get back into it at some point, but I'm not holding my breath.
Heather
|
| |
Replies: 15 / Views: 1,429 |
|
Posted 10/22/2007 10:54 am
