The State Of The Market For Ordinary Coins?

I have seen softness in Peace dollars, LWH and with more common 20th century silver coins. At the same time I think the LSQ are getting more expensive. I don't know about the Morgans since they seem as expensive as ever. I think the gold coins have taken the biggest hit. When you mention coins worth less than four figures that excludes many key dates among most of the 20th Century coins I collect. Any coin whose value is seriously linked to spot price of gold or silver is probably down until commodities stop their decline. This is just my opinion. I recently spent $400 for a 1919-D LSQ in VF condition. I felt that in my pocket.

I think we've hit bottom in the coins market. 2016 has a substantial reduction in the number of planned shows and auctions. Demand in the middle 60% of the market is weak, with the low 20% and top 20% doing well.

If you have the capital and cash flow now is a great time to be a strong buyer, especially in well-pedigreed coins and items that rarely come up for sale. Interest is low at the moment in anything sub-10k. I attribute this to the flood of investors into the top end of the market looking for alternatives to traditional investments. If you're buying and holding when everyone else is selling, you'll be in great position to profit when the market goes the other way, which it inevitably will.

I track a fair number of coins that I'm interested in buying and I only wait until the eye appeal, the grade, and the price all coincide. Most of those coins I watch for are in the $100-$600 range, with a number that get into the few thousands range.

For actual selling prices, not list or best offer prices, I've had to up my price range at least once if not as many as three times during 2015 to have a shot at getting what I'm looking for. I sincerely doubt that I'm just choosing coins that are escalating in selling price. I think really nice coins continue to inch upwards.

A good view of that can be seen on ebay, which has the most "yech" TPG coins. For exactly the same grade from the same TPG you can often see a 2X to 3X price difference for that same coin simply because of what is being collected. With rare exceptions the ugly blotchy carbon spotted milk toned coins are having a hard time finding a buyer, even if their "technical" grade is equal to others at offer.

In the 40 years I've collected coins there has never been a time when someone didn't complain about poor prices (usually those with poor coins), a lack of interest (but an impossibility of finding good coins cheap), and the number of counterfeits (usually just to have something to say).

I WISH decent coins in my area of interest were going down, but I sure can't say they are. In fact, some of the classic commemoratives I've been after have jumped rather decidedly in the better "cliff" grades in the last 6 months alone.

Considering that is probably 95% of the market I guess all the dealers are planning on closing up shop.




I agree I've seen the same thing over the past 40+ years, plus constant moaning about how there are just no decent coins availble. (If they aren't available what are all those tens of thousands of coins in the major houses auction catalogs every year? Figments of our imagination? Sure some of them are substandard, but I don't think those houses made themselves by selling mostly substandard coins.)

Conder, I should clarify that I meant investor interest, not collector interest.

@Frog
Agree on the changes the internet has introduced to the hobby and online auctions.

I feel for LCS and can see some doors closing on the corners in the future and moving strictly to online sales. I met another collector in a coffee shop over the holidays who was reading a Trends paper and we soon became friends, it was interesting to note that on the topic of LCS he as well as a few other buddies hardly ever go to a LCS these days mostly online auctions when the "itch" hits...we only have a few LCS in our area so as a buyer better deals can be had online and more selection and on coold wintry days the comfort of home is more appealing.

Bottom Line for Past / Future Prices:

I've watched the market forces r a long time but hold no formal degrees but as I see it:

Quailty Eye-Appeal Coins like a nice full strike 1919-S Buffalo in higher grades will continue to attract interest and strong prices and if bought right will always have a descent value for the owner .....

Rare but low grade coins such as a circulated 1921-S Buffalo say in VG will probably hold their price but price appreciation will not be their strong suit .....

Quality always pays ..... Lower grade coins not so much, their are a lot of them around and prices can get soft especially if any part of their price has to do with their metal content value like say a common date worn 1964 Kennedy half - If you had sunk $10k into bags of them say even five years ago your money would be shrinking - Compare that to investing the same bucks into a couple high grade coins like the AU or even MS 65 Buffalos or Mercury dime - The price on that 1916-D Mercury in AU 58, if you could find one, hasn't fallen in the last five years but your half dollars have went to heck in a hand basket and quick, quality pays!