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2015 Reverse Proof Presidential Dollar Market

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 Posted 05/18/2016  11:34 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add Bret to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
I've been watching ebay and noticed that the 2015 Johnson reverse proof Presidential dollars are sometimes going for less than $30 delivered. I picked up a PCGS RP-69 First Strike for $28 tonight. I did so not because I need it for my collection, but because I'm guessing it will be good for trade fodder sometime in the future. I realize that the Presidential dollar series isn't that popular (I collect them), but for the 3rd key in the series with a mintage of only 25k to be going so cheap is pretty astounding to me. For comparison, the 2015 Roosevelt reverse proof dimes are going for $30+ and they have three times the mintage. Roosevelt dimes are not exactly what I'd call a popular series either.

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BStrauss3's Avatar
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 Posted 05/19/2016  09:37 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add BStrauss3 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
It's not just the mintage, but the mintage relative to the number of collectors of the series.

The Roosie is widely collected and the RP will be THE key for an expanded set. The Prexy dollars - not so much.
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jbuck's Avatar
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 Posted 05/19/2016  10:18 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I agree, you have to look at mintage and the number of collectors together.

I am glad I bought these from the mint because I wanted to have them and not because I wanted to profit.
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 Posted 05/19/2016  1:11 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Bret to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
It's not just the mintage, but the mintage relative to the number of collectors of the series.

I agree completely. People that watch the guy on HSN should be aware of this because he's constantly comparing coin mintages to silver eagles mintages & values. However, even knowing that Presidential dollars are not as popular as other series, the mintage of this coin is still super low. I'm just surprised at how low the prices fallen. It will be interesting to see if they stay or go up.
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billjones's Avatar
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 Posted 05/19/2016  3:42 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add billjones to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
As a collector I think that most of the reverse Proof coins are ugly. When I saw a Truman set, which was the first issue of this series where the mint played games and limited the mintage and availability to give coins to the profit flippers, I was not pleased. I thought that the Truman coin, which was the first of its kind as a reverse Proof "golden dollar," was especially ugly.

A mintage of 25,000 is no big deal at all. If you collect 19th and early 20th century U.S. coins, the number of survivors in collectable condition is often lower than that, even for the "common" dates. Think of it this way. Are there 25,000 collectors who are willing to pay $100 or more for one these things over the long run? I have my doubts.

The trouble with most modern coins is that the collectors have short attention spans. When one of these "rare," "limited issue" coin sets is sold, often to flippers, the lemmings rush to buy them at inflated prices. Once the coins are in everyone's rearview mirror, the "real prices" drop like a stone.

The "acid test" for one of these coins or sets is to see what a dealer will actually pay for them. It does not matter what it says on "The Gray Sheet" or a price guide. If a dealer won't put money on the barrel that is close to those numbers, the "market" for them is a farce. Collectors should be wary of "one way markets" where the selling prices are high, but the buying prices are low or even nonexistent.
Edited by billjones
05/19/2016 3:44 pm
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 Posted 05/19/2016  4:56 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Bret to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I have to say that I agree with you about these reverse proofs not looking good and it does have to factor in to the overall demand at some level. Still, if someone wants a "complete" set, they have to buy them.

Quote:
A mintage of 25,000 is no big deal at all. If you collect 19th and early 20th century U.S. coins, the number of survivors in collectable condition is often lower than that, even for the "common" dates. Think of it this way. Are there 25,000 collectors who are willing to pay $100 or more for one these things over the long run? I have my doubts.

Far fewer people collect 19th and early 20th century US coins because the cost of the keys is out of their budgets. The price of modern coins are more within reach. There are over 30k 1995-W proof silver eagles which go for $3,500 at a minimum. If ASE collectors are willing to pay that kind of money, then $100 for a coin with a lower mintage certainly seems within reality to me. Of course the market ultimately shows what reality is.


Quote:
where the mint played games and limited the mintage and availability to give coins to the profit flippers, I was not pleased.

I think you're giving them far too much credit for planning. The previous presidential Coin and Chronicles sets had regular proof dollars. I think they initially kept the mintages the same as the previous presidential Coin and Chronicles sets because they didn't realize that a coin which you couldn't get anywhere else would cause greater demand for the sets.
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jbuck's Avatar
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 Posted 05/19/2016  5:41 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I do not hate the reverse proof dollars, but I would not have minded if the 2015 C&C sets had normal proof dollars like the 2013 Teddy and 2014 FDR sets. I wanted the sets for their own sake; not to get the "rare key date" reverse proof, but because I liked the previous sets. The 2013 and 2014 sets also included bronze medals, but the reverse proof was offered instead of bronze medals for 2015. Oh well, what could have been.
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