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 Replies: 17 / Views: 3,064 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
824 Posts |
I have some questions and would like to get people's opinion on when does the value of a rare variety coin lose its value? I have been searching and collecting a few rare varieties and there is one in particular that I have been having better luck in finding. The coin in question (according to PCGS) has a survivability of only 200 coins in all grades in existence. The non-rare variety of the same coin has an existence of 500 in all grades. I started searching early this year for this specific variety and I have found and purchased a total of 10 of this variety type, 8 of the 10 were sold as the non-rare variety type. The fact that I have found 10 (9 this year alone) makes me think that they are not as rare of a variety as PCGS is estimating, the PCGS POP report shows ~40 for the rare type and ~100 of the non-rare type. I was thinking of sending them to a TPG but was wondering if there are too many of that variety would it lose value? If that is the case then would you send them in to get graded? Another question is how would you eventually sell them? If you sell them all at once I would think that it is like a flood on the market and would possible bring the value down. Thanks for any and all of your comments. Please keep in mind that I am asking these questions for generalities or as a rule of thumb. I used specific information strictly as a guide from rarity to non-rarity perspectives. *** Moved by Staff to a more appropriate forum. ***Edited by Heymikep
09/11/2017 8:23 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
11880 Posts |
There is no way to answer without knowing what coin it is because we cannot get a sense for what the demand for the coin is.
In general, a type collector will buy the best grade possible and would avoid paying a premium for a rarer variety. At least this type collector.
IN NECESSARIIS UNITAS - IN DUBIIS LIBERTAS - IN OMNIBUS CARITAS THE MAN IN THE ARENA, Theodore Roosevelt at the Sorbonne Paris on April 23, 1910: " It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat." My coin website: https://fairfaxcoins.com |
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Rest in Peace
United States
17900 Posts |
Be specific. No one is going to "steal" your idea.
Without more detailed descriptions to include denomination, type, date, mint, major or minor variety type, and general grades desired any answer is shooting in the wind.
Help us help you. Photos are always helpful, too.
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Valued Member
United States
115 Posts |
I may be the odd one here, but if my rare coins lose value, they will at some point in time bounce back, a gamble in life like everything is. Do I collect for a later return, no, I collect for the rush that I get chasing the coin(s) that I really want. After the purchase, I do lose that "high" to some degree, as the challenge and reward has been achieved. After 50+ years of collecting, I still have the drive to collect without thinking about the what if's in life.
JFH
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
5239 Posts |
Without knowing what coins and variety you are talking about, I can make some very general assumptions:
1. We really should not assume that the PCGS totals bear any resemblance to the total coin population. To paraphrase Hamlet "There are more coins out there in heaven and earth than are dreamt of by the PCGS grading service". Since you alone found 10 more, it is obvious there could be 1000s more out there in the "wild".
2. Yes, as a general rule, if too many coins of the same kind appear on the market, the price will likely drop. This is fairly elementary supply and demand economics. The demand for varieties of any particular coins is much lower than the general demand for that coin.
Edited by oriole
09/11/2017 8:53 pm
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
824 Posts |
I don't want to be specific because I am looking for a general rule of thumb here. There are many rare varieties that I have been collecting and I used the type above as a guide or starting point. Other rarities I am interested in are ones that any collector of a coin would be interested no matter the grade or major or minor variety.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3479 Posts |
We have to know the type of coin, bro. If you don't want to reveal the type b/c you think CCF members are suddenly going to change their collecting habits and rush to snatch up every available example then you are sadly mistaken. Without the info we can't help you. Also I don't know what your budget is but trying to corner the market on a $2,000 coin versus a $200 coin are two different beasts.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3479 Posts |
Quote:
I don't want to be specific because I am looking for a general rule of thumb here. Ah, I didn't see this. There is no general rule of thumb. Coin types fall in and out of favor. It also depends on grade. Lower grades, and higher grades attract different kinds of collectors. The lower grades will attract less advanced collectors. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5822 Posts |
It have to be the Seated Type, your icon says it all.  |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
11880 Posts |
In general, if you buy a coin it could go up in value or it could go down in value at any time. Generally speaking as a rule of thumb.
IN NECESSARIIS UNITAS - IN DUBIIS LIBERTAS - IN OMNIBUS CARITAS THE MAN IN THE ARENA, Theodore Roosevelt at the Sorbonne Paris on April 23, 1910: " It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat." My coin website: https://fairfaxcoins.com |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1261 Posts |
I have an 1829 Bust dime that PCGS states only 25 exists. It's worth the same as the other 1829 varieties. I guess there aren't many collecting those types by variety so YMMV depending on coin and series.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
824 Posts |
Numismaticstudent, I was looking for a more intelligent response from serious coin collectors instead of something learned in kindergarten. The question is more in line with how does a flood of a specific type of coin affect it's value? I would have preferred no comment. Macmecury, you might be right but is it the Half Dime, dime, double dime, quarter, half dollar or dollar? Or is it a commemorative, modern commemorative, Morgan, peace, slq's, Buffalo nickel, draped bust cent, coronet head cent, Flying Eagle cent, ihp or capped bust in any denomination? I do not discriminate to the type of coin (I do prefer silver over gold though and the seated series are the first type I ever started collecting, hence my image). Mikef, thank you for an honest response and I am not worried about people finding out what coins I collect. My questions are more general and are for any rare variety type. Oriole, thank you and you are right, just because it is posted on PCGS doesn't mean it is correct or accurate. This is one of the reasons I started this conversation, trying to understand and learn. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3479 Posts |
Got it. In the seated series, eye appeal is more important that rare varieties. I'm assuming you're collection is vf or lower by looking through your posting history. The reason you're able to find rare varieties is b/c of lack of demand. Small lowgrade coins don't have a lot of demand. Most collectors prefer big coins and that leads to less dedicated small denomination collectors. I suspect this phenomenon is only exasperated in lower grade coins. If I can buy an r-5 Seated dime in vf for $100 dollars but have another option of buying a r-1 dime with superior eye appeal, why would I buy the rarer coin that is hard on the eyes? Especially if I knew varieties don't effect the price. I would take the r-1 with superior eye appeal over the r-5 anyday. Edited by MikeF
09/11/2017 11:47 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
6381 Posts |
My opinion: only a relative few varieties have large premiums over the non-variety "normal" coin. Popular Morgan VAMs come to mind, like the1888-O Hot Lips and 1890-CC Tailbar. Then there is the 1955 Doubled Die cent and most of the rare Sheldon large cent varieties. Popularity is the key to market value differences. Unless there is a big surge in the number of variety collectors I'd expect most varieties in the Seated Liberty series are unlikely to build big premiums.
I'm OK with being wrong though. Maybe my 1876-CC half with micro mintmark is about to take off in value!
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Moderator
 United States
23522 Posts |
I wold think the appropriate answer more complex than can be decribed by a "generality," but not in an issue-specific sense. A major factor in deriving an answer is the perception of rarity, and people do not change their perceptions easily, even in the face of hard evidence. If you add (throwing out a number) 20% to the population of a rarity, one would expect a commensurate drop in the premium offered for that rarity, especially when it's being balanced (via your cherrypicking) by an equal drop in the population of the more common variety.
But people don't always change their minds easily. Case in point: There is never a moment in numismatics when you cannot go out and buy a 1909-S VDB Lincoln in any grade you want, except at the very top of the Condition Census. It is the perception of them as a rare and valuable coin which helps to prop their value up. The S-VDB has the second-highest Population in PCGS slabs of any Lincoln, lagging only the 1909 VDB. Their mintage is low, but their availability is not and that data may be found by anyone who cares to look for it
Additionally, some collectors simply will_not change their minds even in the face of new evidence. Yes, your large addition to the population of the rare variety will alter the value, but not everyone is going to get on that bandwagon, so prices (on average) will not fall as proportionally as they should.
Demand is another factor. Lessened rarity will mean fewer non-specialists who seek that coin as a "type" simply for its' rarity. This may affect pricing in a downward direction, or it may not, depending on demand. A more-collected series - like Morgans - can absorb a larger hit than could 3 Cent Nickels, for instance.
If there is a generality, it is in that the closer you get to satisfying the actual collector demand for the coin - not the dealer demand - the faster the price will drop. But I don't feel any hard numbers could be speculated upon.
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CCF Advertiser
United States
1533 Posts |
It depends how big the market is for the rare variety. 50 years ago when Bust Dollars were a fraction of their current cost, there were large premiums attached to R-5 and rarer varieties as there was interest in completing sets by Bolender number. Now that they are $2K and up in VF, there is no one collecting Bust Dollars by die variety anymore and you can buy R-6 coins with no premium. There are R-7 US Patterns whose price has not budged in 10 years. The 4 coins that are around show up at auction periodically and sell at the same price as they did 10 years ago. Again, nobody collects US Patterns anymore. Currently, there is an active market for Capped Bust Halves by die variety. If prices go up by a lot, the premiums on rare die varieties will likely contract as the possibility of a complete set by Overton number diminishes. If you were to dump 50 of a rare Overton number halves on the market at the same time, they might not all bring top dollar, but they wouldn't go for nothing either. There is a lot of buying power among dealers that know that eventually these coins will get absorbed and they will make a profit when there is no longer such an overhang. Whatever you are looking at buying, if you find that you can buy a lot of them much cheaper that their rarity would suggest, it is likely that no one cares and you will not be able to sell them at a profit. The opposite effect can be seen with "popular" coins like the 1909-S VDB cent, the 1916 Standing Liberty quarter, or the High Relief Saint. They are much more expensive than their true rarity would suggest due to popularity. Edited by Andrew99
09/12/2017 09:18 am
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Replies: 17 / Views: 3,064 |
Posted 09/11/2017 8:31 pm
