The World Coin Market And The End Of Numismatic Narcissism

It's six o'clock in the morning and I'm already on my third cup of coffee, so bear with me. These are my opinions and nothing more. It's pretty darn obvious we're in a bubble, whether we're in the early part, middle, or end of it, is unknown as of yet. We'll find out, eventually, because all bubbles go pop. No exceptions. That said, I'm not here to type up a bunch of words regarding the short term market, more so, I'm trying to look much further ahead. I feel like I'm not predicting anything, much of what I see is already happening. But the opportunities are so great, this is absolutely worthy of discussing.

For most US coin collectors, and by this, I mean people in the US who essentially only collect US coins, their first exposure to foreign coins was after WW2, when service members returned home with coins from Europe and elsewhere. Every grandmother seems to have a jar full of 1940's coins from Italy and France, etc. But by then these countries were so poor due to the wars, the coins were all copper/nickel, maybe 50% silver if they were lucky. And they weren't rare and they weren't exciting. And for the hundred plus years Americans have collected and invested in coins, they did so exclusively with US coins. Silver dimes, half dollars, gold eagles, and Morgan dollars, Lord have mercy, do American coin collectors love their Morgan dollars.

Now if you could just step back and think about this entire paradigm, it's pretty easy to see how the coin market started out so broken. The United States has the wealthiest population, and they have, by far, the largest pile of cash to throw into numismatic coins. And so there's this huge mountain of money that has poured into this tiny market of US-minted coins. One country, 229 years of coins. And they have, for the most part, financially ignored the rest of the world's 2500 years' worth of coins. I like to refer to this as Numismatic Narcissism, but it didn't really start this way. For most decades it wasn't narcissism which drove Americans only to American coinage. It was a total lack of exposure to foreign coins. But then something happened, something big. The internet. The internet made is so easy to communicate with the rest of the world. The sharing of pictures, videos. ebay! Someone in Japan can buy a German coin from someone in the United States simply by clicking a few buttons on a cell phone in the comfort of their own living room. Finally, Americans don't have to associate foreign coins with 1940's copper junk, but instead, beautiful gold and silver coins issued from ancient times to the 18th century. The majority of them, issues from well before the US Mint was created in 1792, and many of them, much rarer than the US coins they have been collecting and investing in since the hobby began.

And here is where the numismatic narcissism comes into play. There are no more excuses. You cannot blame a lack of exposure now. All the information and opportunities are fully and easily available. It's nothing more than a choice at this point. And yet, Americans are still paying ridiculous amounts of money for US coins. Morgan dollars, pre-1933 gold eagles, even modern silver eagle bullion coins, especially if they're graded MS70. Foreign coins? Pffft, they've never been as valuable as US coins! Stick those things in the far corner of the big coin show! History began in 1792! I'm putting my money into CC Morgans! Walking Liberty half dollars are the next big thing!

Numismatic. Narcissism.

But it's coming to an end. And look, I'm not suggesting US coins will become worthless, not at all. They have their place in the big world of numismatics. Absolutely. But they're being dethroned. As I type. Younger American coin collectors and investors are pouring money into foreign coins. The Asians are, too. Some of these older American coin collectors are very happy their Morgan dollars have essentially doubled in value during this current bubble, yet meanwhile many foreign coins have tripled, quadrupled. This is the very beginning of a big change in the global numismatic market. And it's not a fad, not at all. It's a correction. And those who continue to hoard US minted coins will be the losers. Those who have been hoarding the best foreign coins will be the big winners.

This has been my theory as I have chartered my way through the waters of the numismatic market. I've been looking for the best foreign coins I can afford, focusing on coins I find to be eye-appealing, historically significant, and truly rare. This correction in the numismatic market is going to continue over the next decade, at least, maybe two. It may even over-correct, as markets tend to do. And I absolutely want to be there along the way as it happens. I feel like I already am. If you would like to sail along with me, send me a DM with your email address and I will send you a free subscription to the Wondy Report. You can call it a blog, or a newsletter, or whatever you like. For me it's a recording of my journey through the numismatic market. It's a plethora of information about the coins I like, combined population reports, images, etc. I am building it for lovers of non-US coins, but also for US coin collectors and investors who want to, and really need to, diversify their stash.