What Is Really Considered Low Mintage.

Kaybiye_lady

I understand what your saying, and will pass on the bicentennial quarter or halves.

But even though they made hundreds of millions of 1982 and 1983 nickels I would gladly give you $10 for nice BU rolls.

KabiyeLady....
I think you confused something there ! ......there are not "680 Million Mariana Qtrs."....
•2009-P Northern Mariana Islands Quarter: 35,200,000
•2009-D Northern Mariana Islands Quarter: 37,600,000

And your hoarding theory is well placed, but favoring "my" point with the Mariana Qtr. at such a VERY low mintage. My example was that in 50 years, with a population of 1 Billion people, that if we had 680 million coin collectors at that time, wouldn't then the Mariana "P" be considered a "low mintage" ?
Even combining BOTH mints of the Mariana Qtr., you only have 72,800,000

I know I have seen this before and am not sure what circumstances it applies to. If you are purchasing at face, I could agree with the above numbers, but let me give you a few examples here.

1. 1878S Morgan dollar. Mintage 9.8 million. Can be bought basically for a small premium above silver price up until MS condition.
2. 1946S Washington quarter. Mintage 4.2 million. Can be bought for silver price until MS condition.
3. 1959 Franklin half dollar. Mintage 6.2 million. Can be bought for silver price until MS condition.

Nod2003

I understand what you are saying .. and I hope others are not thinking I am suggesting all of these lower mintage coins will have a good value. For me I am talking only BU/MS .. higher grade examples.

This is a situation where there is a good chance a large number of these coins will be put right into circulation, they will be spent ...handled .. scratched .. then become common circulated coins.

It's been postulated that a rising population will lead to greater numbers of collectors. I'll go along with that up to a point but I'd like to see some actual numbers. Although I don't have any hard evidence I strongly suspect that the number of collectors as a percentage of the population is declining.

I know I am not very good at explaining myself, and that some people may not even care what I have to say. But let me try to put it another way.

Let's say it is 10 years form now. You have decided to help out your grandson, your son or maybe even yourself, to put together at State Quarter and U.S. Territories BU quarters set, that you have always put off. You will say wow .. why is the Northern Mariana Islands P and D quarters four times the price as the others in MS 65 or better. You will say oh .. it is because they made only 35 million of those and 200 million of the others. And no one will think anything wrong with that, because of course I would pay more for the quarter that has 35 million mintage over the one that has 200 million.

Hi Nod, I need to clarify my post as I was not referring to mint state coins but circulated coins. I think using real world examples will be better so everyone can see my angle.

First of all let us go with Clad Kennedy half dollars (not silver) in circulation. For those of us who roll search we might find a 1978 or 1978 D but they are hard to find as both have a mintage of only around 14 million. I hardly ever find them when roll searching and when I do they are usually worn quite a bit. The 1982 P (10.8 million) and 1982 D (13 million) are rare in circulation. The 1986 P and D and 1988 P and D are others. I do not count the 1987 as they were not issued for circulation. Most people do not consider these rare but in truth they are. This is especially true when looking for them in condition better than ef.

Now let us get away from circulating coins and discuss wheat pennies next. Yes I know we can find a few when roll searching but for the purposes of this conversation on rarity we will stick with collections. When I buy groups of coins in a penny book from the public or other dealers I almost always have the same results. The first wheat book from 1909 to 1940 DOES NOT HAVE ANY of the coins with mintages of less than 10 million. In addition to that the 1911 D (12.6 million), 1912 D (10 million), 1913 D (15.8 million), 1921 S (15.2 million), 1924 S (11.7 million), 1927 S (14.2 million), 1928 S (17.2 million),1931 (19.4 million), 1933 (14.3 million), 1938 S (15 million), 1939 D (15 million). Are we seeing a pattern here?

I think so. I buy coins in bulk and I see this pattern over and over again and again. This is not based on a "maybe". This is real world where set after set after set is placed in my hand and the same holes keep showing up. Even when they have a few of the coins mentioned above they are heavily worn and never better than vg 8 with most being in the Ag to g4 catagory. Most of these coins were worn down over the years so they truly are a "rarity" in the average persons collection even in grades g4 to f12. While a true numismatist will have most if not all of these coins the average collector will not have them. Most of these pennies are listed for less than a couple of dollars in the magazines. I don't think they are appreciated the way they should be.

Moving on to silver. The Morgan silver dollars have been melted in quantity by both the US government and the American public over the course of time. The mintages in all coin catagories cannot be accurate in any sense. How many more will be destroyed as silver goes ever higher even now? I shudder to think about it. The point is that any Morgan or Peace dollars with mintages of less than 20 million have been decimated over the years. What percentage is left? There is simply no way to know but I suspect as a whole it is less than 60%. Most Morgan silver dollars sell for less than $25.00 and many of these are in au or better condition. A real bargain in my book...

Moving on to Mercury dimes. Again many of the early years were decimated simply because they circulated until 1965. Others were melted in 1980 and even more now. Any Mercury dime that survived this attrition rate is rare in mintages of less than 20 million. You can still buy many of these coins with mintages of less than 10 million for bullion price. A bargain any day of the week! This trend WILL NOT continue forever.

With regards to silver the Barber halves, Walking Liberty halves, Franklin halves, silver Washington quarters and silver Roosevelt dimes the story is the same. Most of these coins are treated as 90% silver bullion over the years and much of it has been melted. Yet many have mintages of less than 10 million and when these collections of coins come in the holes are painfully obvious. 90% "bullion" is not appreciated right now and mintages mean even less. This trend will not continue forever. Remember not everyone wants mint state coins. How many of you started with mint state coins? I suspect not many. I know I did not. I started with the "junk" which is really starting to get scarce. My point is this. The "junk" is rarer than you think it is and much of it IS NOT priced accordingly. One day it will be. The idea is to have completed your set before that day comes and maybe have a few extra around to trade for other stuff. In a US population of 265 million even if only 2% of people collect coins that means a whole lotta folks won't have access to many of these pieces at these bargain basement prices in a few years. This will be especially true in times of high inflation (which I believe is coming very soon). Sincerely, John Leckrone

Glad I could be of help. My response took over an hour to write so am glad it got you thinking....

Another area of weakness in prices are the Barber coins including dimes, quarters and half dollars. These were produced from 1892 to 1915/1916. I don't see many of these available and when I do it is generally in very worn condition ranging from ag to g4 and only rarer in higher grades when buying collections.

The Barber's circulated alongside the mercs and Roosevelts so they saw a lot of use and were generally not collected so they have a very high attrition rate.

If you look at mintages a big percentage of these coins have less than 5 million coins produced with a sizeable percentage below a couple million. While you will generally not find these in bullion bins the price is still very cheap. That is assuming you can find them.

More popular coins (Indian head and wheat pennies, Mercury dimes etc) with mintages much higher than the Barber coins sell for significant premiums if you compar it to these coins. Why Barber coins never got popular I do not know. Personally I like all of the reverse designs of the Barber's and while the obverse of these coins are kind of plain jane it is not too bad either.

Another area which is in modern coinage are the Proof silver half dollars. Most have mintages of under 900 thousand. Even the modern clad halves have a mintage of 3 million and are not issued for circulation. While these coins are not circulating they are cheap right now with most of the half dollars selling at a small premium over melt value (for a proof no less!) and the clad stuff for a buck or two. Kennedy is still a VERY popular president and his coin is still in the top 10 most collected catagory according to Coin World. Add to that people can still on occassion get many of the Kennedy halves at their bank which helps bring in new collectors to the fold.

The internet has made information easy to acquire. Websites just like this one are finding more and more eyeballs on them. Everyone collects "something". I know, I have an antique mall and I can assure you I am amazed at what some folks collect....

To make a long story short coins are a great investment as well as being fun to collect. While some coins may not be "in" right now that trend will change eventually. Be sure to include mintages in your buying formula when looking at a coin and trying to decide whether or not to add it to your collection. As I have stated many times before, BUY QUALITY, NOT QUANTITY and of course my ever correct statement and personal philosophy COMMON STUFF WILL ALWAYS BE COMMON AND RARE ITEMS WILL ONLY GET RARER OVER TIME. Just look at cherrypickers searching for coins that are a little bit "different" and are rare because of some little detail. Well how about the coins that are just not very plentiful? For those seeking to complete sets supply and demand determine price. Right now many coins are priced due to lack of demand. I don't think things will stay that way forever. Happy hunting folks... Sincerely, John Leckrone