What Are The Chances?

I don't have any idea on how to calculate the chances / odds of finding stuuf in circulation, but it's certainly possible. Finding Proof coins in circulation is less likely than non-proof, but still possible.

Keep looking & good luck.

, DJMonty,

Simply add up all the mintages (excel or a clone is good for this) and divide the mintage of what you're looking for by this number.

I did this for the odds of finding an svdb cent in a never-searched pile of wheat cents. It was something like 1:15,000+

I would say the chances of finding a barber half or Standing quarter for my collection to be extremely unlikely, but probably more likely they I would find a specimen for my Peace dollar set.

Hate to burst your bubble but such facts are rather what is known as faked statistics. The hard facts are that in many areas statistics of crimes are buried so as to look better for many reasons. As an example where I live there has been a minimum of 4 to 5 burgleriese on my block alone and not one, not even one, is on the police reports. And yes those were reported. In large cities many people are told that if the robberies are minimum, forget it since it will never be solved and if it was the people robbed would spend so much time in courts, they would end up loosing anyway.
Many coin type robberies are not reported and if they are, almost always told to forget it since you really can't prove what was stolen if anything.
I sure wish your statistics were accurate. Try walking down ny street in Chicago at about midnight.

Yeah, never believe what published statistics say if they come from any government or news agency, or anywhere for that matter. The raw data behind those stats could be convoluted to say almost anything. Crime is certainly up where I live. Unemployment is significantly higher than published numbers...etc. In fact, almost everyone I know of any level of education, is either unemployed entirely or well underemployed. Myself and my peers are still young (20's), however, am I supposed to believe only 1 in 10 people need work right now. Try 3 in 10, with an additional 3 in 10 need/deserve better work.

back on track.......any coin not intended for circulation should not really ever be in circulation. I know some get there somehow, but the chances of finding one, especially a specific date are extremely remote.

When I was in kolidge at Ahia U, the student paper in Athens pointed out that neither the city nor the county had any rapes for three years running. You got 18,000 students and another 12,000 in the county, and I guess they're all saints.

IIRC, Pittsburg had no stolen cars. They're all written up as "joyriding".

You should have heard the whining when the city wanted to cut back a few firemen. You'd think the town would burn to the ground the next day. All these union wage heroes are needed, and there's no way mutual support would ever be sufficient.

Once the decision was made, they found enough grants and programs that the net loss was something like one fireman.

Oddly enough, duracell has a program where they provide free batteries to firemen. They point out that many firemen are volunteer. How many? 70%.

Chicago? Pfff, I've walked in Detroit at night many times.



This. It's how people deal with cognitive dissonance. The facts don't fit with their world-view, which makes them uncomfortable, so they rationalize them away.

Why would crimes be more under-reported now than they were a couple decades ago? The downward trend in burglaries is matched by a decline in violent crimes like homicide. Are we to believe murders are going under-reported also? Why would they be more under-reported now than back in the late 80s when crime rates were higher? Insurance statistics show the same decline. Are victims of burglary just not bothering to make claims on their home insurance? What would cause such a massive increase in under-reporting that it would transform an alleged increase in crime into a decrease?