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 Replies: 12 / Views: 1,212 |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
14454 Posts |
well not really the bottom falling out but the last time I looked it was like 15.00 a ounce and tonight when I looked it was down to 13.84 a ounce, what happened?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1173 Posts |
My read: Fears of recession in the U.S. (or at least the possibility) spreading to Brazil and other foreign markets means the potential for lower industrial demand for silver. Hence...lower silver values especially since they were high relative to demand in the first place.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2602 Posts |
US dollar has also slightly strengthened, so the recent sivler and gold peak had investors locking in their profits before the end of the year. Oil has also fallen from its near $100/barrel. But there are many factors that should keep precious metals at or near highs (or beyond) for the forseeable future. The dollar will continue to be weak because of the large trade deficit, the large national debt, weak housing market, endless war in Iraq, weak oil supply (which will keep oil prices high), etc. There are other factors, but this is best to go see a business web site. Kitco.com has a lot of articles on this topic.
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Valued Member
United States
374 Posts |
i was looking at some charts on kitco and silver was 15.00 around nov 21. The last week or so it has avg around 14.30. Like was said before oil prices strong dollar hurt silver. funny gold platinum and palldium are up.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2269 Posts |
I noticed a pattern, whenever oil rises, the dollar falls, and gold rises. What I don't understand, why does silver rise ever so slightly?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5318 Posts |
Well, the way I've read it...there's been a run into gold and silver to hedge the weakening of other markets. This really picked up when RE investment went sour. Perhaps holders of silver are suspecting a top, and they're now selling? If it keeps sliding that might ring true. Check that trend line for AG since Fall '05. Something's gotta give, and I think we saw the top in early Nov (imo).
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Rest in Peace
United States
2884 Posts |
I often wonder as a coin collector vs investor why so much attention is payed to metal markets? In my hey day of "hoarding" silver I managed to get about seven or eight hundred ounces together. Even swings of three or four dollars an ounce would not have made early retirement possible! I feel that oil, diamonds, gold, silver and most commodities are carefully controlled by a small percentage of the population. We are mostly yo-yo's on the end of the string. I feel the key(with the occasional bit of luck excepted)to making money in coin collecting is buying established key coins and hanging on to them for as long as you can. I also tire of hearing the gloom and doom end of the world scenario played out again and again over most of my life. My wife has a Masters Degree in History and studies texts written over the last few hundred years in particular related to politics and economics. I swear, some of the stuff she shows me from 150 years ago could have been written yesterday. The theme is almost always the same. The sky is falling ! The sky is falling! Of course when things do go a bit south as they have throughout history the gloom and doomer's become prophetic. If things get really bad someone(government, police, local gang etc... will take what ever they want from you no mater how well you think you can defend yourself. If the world degrades to that level I don't want to live in it anyway! I just felt like ranting so excuse my behavior. I try to think more in terms that we live in a better world than most of us realize and most western countries would seem to be paradise to 75% of the people on earth, and that the vast majority of people are good and hope and aspire for virtually the same things. In all honesty the market forces are way to complex for my pea brain to understand and analyze. If they were not I think I may be rich by now! Peace, Mike  |
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
3831 Posts |
There is a major difference between various precious metals. The reason why silver prices are always around that level is simply because there is just a high level of recycling - i.e. a fair amount of supply compared to the demand there is out there. Gold on the other hand is simply for hoarding purposes.
Platinum and palladium on the other hand are two different stories - the main sources are from South Africa and Russian and together combined, they produce at least 85% of both platinum and palladium which is a scary figure. At least 50% of both platinum and palladium goes straight into the automobile catalysts industry which a significant amount of them are started to buy out by China as they have just becom the third largest manufacturer after 2003. (Germany has dropped down to fourth). As the world economy develops in particular in China and India, what are the chances of these people not buying a car as their wealth increase?
There are unfortunately not as much supply, about 6-7 million for both platinum and palladium each regardless of attempts of increasing production levels. Production levels have not increased much for the last 10 years although the recent high metal prices will encourage an increase level of production. When that comes in is another story. Strikes in South Africa and recent political tension between US and Russia are not good signs for the prices. Rising oil prices have made it even worse as mining companies have to pass down the cost to consumers. Silver on the other hand - there are just too much of them. High prices of silver will encourage people to recycle whereas high prices of platinum and palladium will only enough the jewellery sectors to recycle. Currently recycling from catalysts is just difficult.
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Bedrock of the Community
 United States
14454 Posts |
I in no way was trying to use the "sky is falling scenario" here I was simply surprised when I saw it had dropped that much when I checked last night and just wondered when it took the downward swing. I know around election year the dollar usually gains a little ground and everything else falls a little I was just wondering around what date this trend started, sorry if I made some people feel like I really gave a hoot about the prices as far as a investment vehicle (I bought all my silver at less than 7.00 a ounce so as long as its higher than that I can still make money on my investment) I was merely wondering for a historic point of view more than anything else
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2600 Posts |
Gold and silver have been joined a the hip forever and have traded at a ratio of about 54 to 1 during this period. with out looking, I can tell you that gold was down and silver followed by the above ratio. The current down tick was predictable and obvious. I just like others road the pricing up and added to or investment. When things started to level out, most felt that we had reached a new current ceiling and took the profit. This, naturally drove prices down short term, but the market is under upward pressure from many directions as mentioned by others and it will turn up again shortly. Gold and silver should not be so dependent on each other as silver has lost it's monetary value and is more of a industrial/jewelry metal while gold is still considered an intrinsic value produce aside from other uses. They should trade independently but don't. Do not be around silver if the world ever divides them, the thump will be loud. Until then, silver follows gold and it is going up.
Jim
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Member
United States
3242 Posts |
This how I see silver if go up great 95% of may coinage is silver. but if it go up to say $80.00 an oz like it did back when the Hunt bro's tried to get control of the silver market
I just will have to be more selective on may buying of silver coins like I am with gold now.
I just hope gold & silver say at a price that I don't have to hock the house to buy a coin!
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Valued Member
United States
259 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2764 Posts |
Well, currently the ratio of Gold to Silver is 57 to 1, which mean silver is lagging behind. If you can imagine Gold and Silver are two sledcars that's being held together by rope with Gold being in front. So Silver will almost always follow the pattern of Gold but always a little bit lagging behind whenever there's an up or down swing.
And I agree with gxserie.
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Replies: 12 / Views: 1,212 |
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Posted 12/17/2007 10:47 pm
