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 Replies: 18 / Views: 1,957 |
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Valued Member
Canada
187 Posts |
Hi Everyone, I've noticed a lot of discussion and sales lately touting 1909 Lincoln cents as hot commodities for the 2009 release of the new Lincoln cents, with most collectors arguing that new cents will create new cent collectors, and prices of Lincolns will skyrocket. I will agree that it is certainly a possibility, but have a different theory to share with you. My thought is that the State Quarter program drew a significant number of collectors to the hobby, not just in quarters, but across the board. The introduction of the Presidential dollars has not seemed to have a similar increase in new collectors, rather it has drawn debate about the existence of the $1 bill versus the $1 coin. Sackies, SBAs, and Ikes all remain as unpopular as ever, while Morgans and Peace dollars seem to be only slowly rising. I feel that the silver dollar prices are largely due to the original influx of collectors brought in by the State Quarter program, and was not driven by the new Presidential dollars. I think it is entirely possible that the new cent design will not attract significant numbers of new collectors (especially if there is a recession and money is tight); people in the media may tend to focus on whether it is even worthwhile to mint the coin anymore rather than on the collecting aspect (there was no such issue with State Quarters). In my eyes the best time to sell 1909 cents may be now, when everybody is looking to buy in the hopes of profits a year from now. What do you think? |
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Moderator
 United States
187635 Posts |
I'm thinking along those lines... The prices of LHC's have been going up as we approach 2009. I feel it is speculator driven; the actual demand is an illusion. There still might be some increase due to new collectors, but the one-off 2009 series is not to be compared to the Statehood Quarters. A good analogy: how have Jefferson nickel prices gone up since the Westward Journey series? My prediction: The time to sell your LHCs is now. The time to buy your LHCs is after the inevitable bust in 2009; when the price tops out and the so-called investors bail. As always, YMMV, I am not an expert! |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
812 Posts |
I think you're right that if all that happens in 2009 is a single-year design change the impact will be short-lived.
However, much of the speculation is that the cent will undergo a more dramatic change AFTER 2009: it may be discontinued, since making them is a money-losing operation; or changed to a different/cheaper metal (steel perhaps); or the design changed completely (100 years is kinda long for the same obverse, and 50 years is kinda long for the same reverse).
Those kinds of changes may well generate a longer term interest and price boost.
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Moderator
United States
187635 Posts |
Ahhh... I did not consider the ending of the Lincoln, either the design or the denomination. It should elevate values, much like design changes have in the past.
I would speculate that total elimination of the denomination would yield greater increases than a design change. Even though I personally believe we should eliminate it, I do not think the special interests would ever let it go. And many of the special interests that want to keep the cent denomination specifically want to keep Lincoln on the cent! Oh, the politics of it all!
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Valued Member
United States
473 Posts |
I say keep the obverse but change the back! 50 years is a good run for the Memorial and it would keep the 50 yr reverse tradition alive and healthy!
--gary
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Moderator
United States
187635 Posts |
GFR3, I am having deją vu... oh yeah... https://goccf.com/t/24946 Also, look at how I have changed my view: Before: quote:
However, the winds speak to me and say that after 2009, the One Cent coin is gone. I could be wrong, but it is the feeling I get
After: quote:
Even though I personally believe we should eliminate it, I do not think the special interests would ever let it go
That feeling must have changed, or the "wind" was my own hot air!  |
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Valued Member
United States
473 Posts |
jbuck, you know if we were running for political office you'd be labled as the dreaded "flip-flopper" for that one hahahaha check out your earlier post: quote:
The Half Dollar was killed when they made the decision to leave silver in them for five years after it was removed from the others. Instant hoard piece that disappeared from circulation. People adapted with two quarters and so it is today.
lol I couldn't remember who had said it, but I was explaining earlier today to my kid cousin (who is just entering the world of coins) why we never see halves in circulation any longer and quoted your post almost word for word.... wierd man! --Gary EDIT: we should start a petition for the mint to design a new reverse to last until 2059....whos with me? Edited by GFR3
02/12/2008 7:19 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
581 Posts |
Did the various backs of the Jeffereson Nickel increase collector interest? I might say "yes", but in only those coins - the Buffalo, Handshake, Westward, etc. But I really think it did virtually nothing for the rest of the series.
And they're planning on doing the same for the Lincoln series. Do you really think a newbie is ready to roll up his/her sleeves and attack collecting well over a hundred coins just because there are a few new lincoln cents out there?
I think a lot of people are in for a rude awakening if they actually keep their speculative Lincolns into 1909.
As was said before, SELL NOW!!
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Moderator
United States
187635 Posts |
quote:
you know if we were running for political office you'd be labled as the dreaded "flip-flopper" for that one hahahaha
Someone else here wanted me to run for office... it would be a tough campaign! I was for the Lincoln Cent before I was against it!  I guess it all depends on what the definition of is is?  I cannot collect the coins I wish they made, I have to collect the coins we have... I could go on all day... quote:
EDIT: we should start a petition for the mint to design a new reverse to last until 2059....whos with me?
I'm in, why not. It might be a lost cause, but I guess I am used to it! (Cubs Fan) And I close with this... Kabiye Lady (Possible Campaign Chairperson? We both like the Ikes!)... She makes some great points, so I stand by my (current, as of now, poll researched) position on the issue... |
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Member
United States
3242 Posts |
The US Mint is asking that federal reserve bank to send all pennies roll at fed banks to there rolling shops to pull all copper cents out to save money on 2009 200th 4 coin sets
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Valued Member
United States
168 Posts |
i for one don't care if they do away with the penny...I'm not accustomed to using them anyway
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Valued Member
United States
473 Posts |
quote:
The US Mint is asking that federal reserve bank to send all pennies roll at fed banks to there rolling shops to pull all copper cents out to save money on 2009 200th 4 coin sets
hmmm...I've suspected that is what is to happen. I've heard a few accounts of people getting copper-skunked on whole boxes of circulated pennies. So now we know why its illegal for us to melt them--they want them for themselves! Could be good value wise though-if enough early memorials are melted, the remaining ones will rise in price and we'll all be able to make a few bucks selling on ebay... jbuck, as a Mets fan to a Cubs fan I feel your pain brother  lost causes have the tendency to be fun rides with disapointed (i.e. crying) finishies... |
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Moderator
United States
187635 Posts |
I wonder about this as well. Think back to when we switched from Silver to Cu-Ni clad. Could they have pulled most if not all the silver out of circulation for funding and then switch to Cu-Ni clad? I am not saying it would have been the right thing to do, but looking at it from a purely financial standpoint on the Mint's behalf. It's not like they never melted coins before. So consider today's situation. Copper and Zinc cents have coexisted for over 25 years, so siphoning the copper out of circulation could go unnoticed (except by the skunked roll-hunters!). The mint is in a position to "demand" the copper to be sent back for "reprocessing". I am sure the guys in Greenville, TN won't mind getting a (possibly) free supply of their plating material! Any bulk copper beyond what is needed for plating could be used for the Cu-Ni coins. GFR3... at least you have the 1986 Series and a pennant in 2000! But yeah, rough times recently. A good friend of mine is a huge Mets fan, so I tell everyone he is from Queens (he is actually from Yonkers). He says it is like the Mets get a good team together, put in a good run, and then go out of their way to blow it. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
7123 Posts |
the 2009 Lincolns will attract a certian number of people ,, but not near the numbers of seasoned collectors that could have been attracted had they minted a 2009 VDB wheat reverse Lincoln Cent and a 1909-S VDB proof. for some reason they have turned the coin into a Lincoln commemorative rather than a 100 year anniversary of the Lincoln Cent design . Metalman |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts |
In reality most of our type of coin collectors forget who is actually the largest percentage of coin collectors. It's not us old people, it's the little kids when it comes to PENNIES (cents for those sensitive to terminology). Any kid that collects coins will always collect those since they are cheap, easy to find, easy to trade, easy to place in albums, folders, rolls. When you stop and consider our country now has 300,000,000+ and a great amount of them are kids, if the 2009 sparks further interest in that series with those kids, the values of every date will grow massively. Possibly one more reason to watch for the 2009 Red Book sheduled for release April 8, 2008 |
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Moderator
United States
187635 Posts |
Great point, Carl! I never though about it that way, but I should have. When I was a kid, I was allowed to look through my parents' change to fill my folders. I was allowed to keep any cent for free, but the others came out of my allowance. Guess which folder filled up the quickest? |
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Replies: 18 / Views: 1,957 |
Posted 02/12/2008 3:12 pm
