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Coin Collectin Is Not Dying Despite Some Claims

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basebal21's Avatar
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 Posted 04/06/2019  9:30 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
I've had to type so much on this on many different forums that it is just time for it to get it's own post.

Coin collecting is not dying, all it did was change. Since probably the very first collector they've likely been claiming they're the last generation of collectors or that their generation does everything the best and future ones will mess everything up. This has been going on for thousands of years.

I'm sure the grandparents were really proud of Woodstock, or the devil music of Elvis, or how soft kids had it when they had the brand new radio of entertainment. Everything is always relative and human nature is predictable on large scales which is why every generation basically repeats the complaints of their grandparents. The difference now is that the internet allows these complaints to be widely seen instead of being confined to the local malt shop or bingo hall etc.

Now to get to coins specifically.
Coin print material is dying, this is nothing unique to coins.
Many coin clubs are dying, this is nothing unique to coins.
Many local coin stores are dying this is nothing unique to coins.
Many coin shows are dying, this again is nothing unique to coins.

What some either choose to ignore or not realize is that all of these are following the trends of society. People aren't not reading or watching the news because their paper went under, tools weren't eliminated because Sears closed, people aren't running around naked because the local strip mall is closed.

The internet has changed everything. I'll repeat that again, the internet has changed everything. I can get more accomplished in 5 minutes on my iPhone in terms of searching for coins or information than I could in a month of club meetings or several trips to a local store. It doesn't matter how big or how many local shows you have you can get a look at more inventory in an hour online than a month of shows. Now that said there are some good shops and good shows and by all means go to those if you enjoy them, but in terms of looking at the market it is necessary to understand the massive impact the internet has had.

Coin show demographics are another area that people like to reference. First and foremost collectors have always historically been older. Collecting takes money and this is something most kids do not have. It's nothing new that teens would rather party and chase partners. Young people grow up though and interest change. It's happened with every generation.

There is also another major reason why it's older people at shows. The way many treat younger people it's clear a significant portion are trying to take advantage of them. A lot of people refer to this as tuition, but the internet is the great pricing equalizer and the TPGs are the grade equalizer. If you're 15 or under people are nice because you're a kid, if you're 50+ you look like what a collector is supposed to look like, if you're mid 20's-30's there are many people that will treat you differently. This different treatment is very very real and results in different pricing/buy offers/"information" to name a few. Some of you are older than my father and I am certainly a next generation collector, however I am far from a kid. There are countless places where I would get very different treatment and pricing than some of you would. It is what it is, but there is a reason knowledgeable younger collectors have cut out a lot of the old guard.

Now as far as pricing.
Prices have to be understood as to why what has happened is happening. We can start out by throwing out the prices of the 80s, Wall Street was involved and that is such an outlier that unless they get back in it's completely irrelevant for trends. When you remove that it looks very different. Same with when you control for series and quality. Plenty of things have increased, common things have fallen though though many things have reached record prices as well.

Again the internet brought about a long over due adjustment. Previously people believed their local show/shop/club that oh this is the king oh the series is super rare such as a 1909-S VDB. Then the internet came along and you are no longer at the mercy of the local supply nor can supply chains be regulated as much as can see you can buy basically all you want if you have the money at any time. Common Morgans as one example probably should have never been as high as they were in the past.

The old myths and marketing were exposed big time in many areas and as the online market really turned into the force it is today prices adjusted accordingly. Places like ebay themselves essentially encourage driving prices down on common things especially, a bunch of people keep undercutting the each other and next thing you know the price is way down.

Than there is the issue of collecting differences. World coins and moderns and even ancients are more popular than ever. The internet and the TPGs have allowed collectors to be more diverse in their collecting than ever before. Set building isn't as popular as before rather variety is the fad.

Some people want to diminish the importance of Instagram, FB, YouTube, Reddit and others in terms of collecting and some even go as far as to diminish ebay, they are all completely relevant factors in collecting and have done a lot to expand and bring new people into the hobby as well as make it more connected world wide.

I could go on and on and on but I know this is long enough already.

The biggest threat to collecting is collectors themselves and how negative so many are. There have been so many threads on multiple forums where instead of celebrating a record price people feel the need to trash it, or people just wanting to talk something down because it's a modern or they don't understand it/not what they would do. Some can be ego driven, others can be agenda or actually wanting collecting to die for lower prices, others can mean well but just not know enough yet to really be able to give good advice in that area, but the negativity or idea that if things aren't done how I want them drives people off or to other venues especially younger people. This is something that happens all over and not something I am singling out here, but opinions do get presented as market info which in turn talks down someones excitement because that ASE is just bullion to someone despite the long track record showing otherwise as one example.

You can be sure that its not the traditional 50/60+ year old coin club person that's responsible for the massive sales occurring in moderns or world moderns or skull/superman coins just to name small sample of many places.
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 Posted 04/06/2019  9:54 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add dollars to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
While I admire your 'positivity', there comes a point when it's just delusional and being Pollyanna.


Empirically, coin collecting has very obviously been in a sustained, secular downtrend.

https://trends.google.com/trends/ex...20collecting

You claimed that coin collecting
Quote:
is actually probably more popular than ever


which, if this were true, would be reflected in prices, however if you adjust for inflation over prices of years past, coins are WAY WAY DOWN. Hell, even in the last 10 years, it's been a bloodbath...

https://www.PCGS.com/prices/graph.a...lename=index

But OK. Your contention is that prices are really a big illusion... Coin club and show attendance, irrelevant!
While print media is in a secular downtrend as well (but according to your logic, it's as strong as it's ever been BECAUSE LOOK AT ALL THESE MAGAZINES IN PRINT!) do note that the coin publications were the ones getting smashed, while others can still sustain an audience (I doubt Firearms News is going away any time soon...) but OK. We'll write that off to the broader death of print media...

Your core contention- in spite of all the riffing and bloviating above- is that coin collecting is stronger than ever, because of Coin Instagram and Coin Facebook?

Great. Lets start there.
Lets quantify the State of Modern Coin Collecting- exemplars being IG and Facebook- by your giving us the membership figure for the single most popular FB coin community. With that, we can compare to some historical data we do have and go from there.

Also, just so we can establish the goalposts here and people reading along can evaluate the caliber of your insight; do you also claim that the baseball card market is as strong as ever, based on Baseball Card Instagram and Sports Card Facebook?

Edited by dollars
04/06/2019 9:56 pm
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sel_69l's Avatar
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 Posted 04/06/2019  9:57 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Irrespective of the vagaries of trends in the contemporary coin collecting community,
ancient coins have been collected and studied since the start of the Renaissance. Scholars have earned their Phd's from the results of their research into ancient coins.

Since the introduction of modern machine made coins at the start of the 19th Century, there has been a continuous expansion in the volume of coin production. That has the long term effect of expanding the size of the collector base.

The aspects of coin collection and study that will change however, is in the way that coins are bought and sold, studied, collected, and marketed.
Changes in the way that collectors congregate will be driven by technological and social development.

Like the stock market, there will be ups and downs in numismatics, but the hobby will never die.
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basebal21's Avatar
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 Posted 04/06/2019  9:59 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
While I admire your 'positivity', there comes a point when it's just delusional and being Pollyanna.


I'm glad that you understand everything and know more than anyone in your week or so back.

Sell proclaimed opinions are my facts people being a threat was one of my points. Thanks for making that for me
Edited by basebal21
04/06/2019 10:01 pm
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Bump111's Avatar
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 Posted 04/06/2019  10:09 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Bump111 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Very interesting write-up and I'm glad you took the time to put your thoughts out there for us to consider.

My thoughts are this - what is driving the "next generation" of collectors? I started out by developing an interest in the coins clanging around in my pockets. As has been discussed many times on these pages, the method of paying for merchandise is moving to electronic means. All the sites you reference will require payment of these types. So, unless a youngster is influenced by an acquaintance or stumbles across the hobby online they just aren't going to care about it.

I truly hope you are right. I just see a logical conclusion in the not so distant future where numismatics is a niche hobby with just a very few wealthy participants passing around the cream of crop items in museums public & private like Egyptian artifacts. In the meantime we should just do what we can to encourage those young collectors and continue to enjoy our small pieces of it, too.
"Nummi rari mira sunt, si sumptus ferre potes." - Christophorus filius Scotiae
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tdziemia's Avatar
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 Posted 04/06/2019  10:11 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add tdziemia to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Excellent post, @baseball.

I agree that metrics need to change to reflect the modern era, but what are those metrics?

Personally I would love to see the number of coin transactions on ebay each year. In my opinion, this would be pretty meaningful to the question at hand, but I doubt anything like this is publicly available. Obviously this reflects collector demand through this particular channel to market.

Likewise on the number of coin transactions on the world's major auction houses.

In my opinion price is not the best metric of the health of the hobby. Activity is. Anyone can feel free to disagree. Airline prices have been up and down, airlines have been profitable, and have gone out of business. But air passengers (activity) keep increasing.

Absent real data it is tough to support whichever side of this debate people are on.
Edited by tdziemia
04/06/2019 10:22 pm
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 Posted 04/06/2019  10:15 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add dollars to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I'm glad that you understand everything and know more than anyone in your week or so back.

Sell proclaimed opinions are my facts people being a threat was one of my points. Thanks for making that for me


I asked you a couple of questions, for the sake of debating your own points.
From there, we can illustrate that your insight here is weak and off base.

But first, you have to answer them.
What's the membership base of the largest coin group on, say, Facebook, since you claim this is evidence of Coin Collecting being 'stronger than ever'?
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 Posted 04/06/2019  10:17 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add dollars to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
And just to be clear, I'm a long time collector who left quite some time back, and things were in a downtrend even then.
Today? I'm absolutely thrilled that I can pick up coins for even less money today than they were so many years ago.

I don't care how 'popular' the hobby is. I enjoy it for precisely what it is and what it has always been. Video games are incredibly popular, I don't play those.

Still, to deny reality- or to make the case for an alternate reality using very weak logic- deserves to be addressed.
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tdziemia's Avatar
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 Posted 04/06/2019  10:18 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add tdziemia to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@dollars, I could not get either of your links to work.

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 Posted 04/06/2019  10:23 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add dollars to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Sorry about that tdziema.

First is a 15 year Google Trends chart on the term 'coin collecting'.
https://trends.google.com/trends/ex...20collecting

For what its worth, Google Trends/large scale crowdsourced search data is now heavily used in equities to establish market trends/insights and are widely considered to be the most important quant metrics since the advent of value analysis.

The 2nd is a PGCS 3000 Price Index set to a 10 year snapshot.
https://www.PCGS.com/prices/graph.a...lename=index

While that isn't a 'perfect' system, it definitely corresponds, empirically, with what basically everyone not blind has been seeing in pricing.

These are two very simple indicators that, if what baseball were saying were true, would show the opposite... yet what they show is exactly what a lot of other people are noticing, but that some just can't bear to admit so instead of addressing reality, they make up a soothing religion and tell themselves that all's well (and just like years past) because of the 25K people in a global facebook group.

It's absurd.
Edited by dollars
04/06/2019 10:28 pm
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basebal21's Avatar
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 Posted 04/06/2019  10:32 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
My thoughts are this - what is driving the "next generation" of collectors?


I would argue the same thing as always. Interest/history. There are a lot of collectors that just found something online or started as a bullion person and got interested. Even if they are just a casual collector nothing wrong with that.

Think of it this way, very few collectors started as a child and held on the entire time. The majority of collectors start later in life or come back just as it's always been.


Quote:
In my opinion price is not the best metric of the health of the hobby. Activity is.


Which is a good way to look at it. For ebay if one wanted to you could go through the financials or just track it month to month on your own which would obviously take work. I just did a quick check for ebay, they showed at least 1.5 million coins sold for three categories and that doesn't even count bullion/tokens/exonumia for what I believe is the last 30 days of sales with the sold category.

Great Collections built themselves off a healthy market.

Heritage has been very healthy
https://coins.ha.com/heritage-aucti...leaseId=3354
2017 records for world and ancient coins.

Legend started their own auction house, which is high end but has been wildly successful.

We can certainly have legitimate and healthy debates about the measurements, but like you said they clearly need to change

Edited by basebal21
04/06/2019 10:34 pm
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 Posted 04/06/2019  10:37 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add dollars to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The question here is the state of the market of today compared to years past and your claim that it's 'stronger than ever'

You're very deliberately dodging anything that might substantiate your own claims, I can only assume for (a very well founded) fear that it will get shot down.

I think we all agree that the information age seriously changed the game for everything, but on a chart, per everything that CAN be measured, coin collecting has been in a secular downtrend and the institutions you claim are counter-examples are trivially small relative to the market penetration of years past.
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basebal21's Avatar
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 Posted 04/06/2019  10:40 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
The 2nd is a PGCS 3000 Price Index set to a 10 year snapshot.
https://www.PCGS.com/prices/graph.a...lename=index

While that isn't a 'perfect' system, it definitely corresponds,


Do you actually understand what makes that up? That's the fall back many people who don't understand the market try especially on another forum.

Tell me why common date classic commemoratives should be included which are a huge part, how about all the other common date common grade things?

Was already addressed the MASSIVE flaws in that outdated old chart
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 Posted 04/06/2019  10:41 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add dollars to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Airline prices have been up and down, airlines have been profitable, and have gone out of business. But air passengers (activity) keep increasing.


It's not an apples to apples comparison.
The business dynamics of airline stock prices have to do with a ton of stuff that is well beyond just demand and given the margins in that industry, its incredibly easy for them to go bust if little things change, unrelated to the macro. If there were a fixed number of available flights, there could never be any more and everyone had to bid on them, it would be a more apt comparison with collectible coins.
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basebal21's Avatar
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 Posted 04/06/2019  10:41 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Dollars go troll somewhere else. Your posting a chart over and over and ignoring everything else. Seen this before a lot on another forum
Edited by basebal21
04/06/2019 10:44 pm
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 Posted 04/06/2019  10:45 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add dollars to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Do you actually understand what makes that up? That's the fall back many people who don't understand the market try especially on another forum.


Yes, I do, and you seem to constantly say DO YOU EVEN UNDERSTAND...? without substantiating your point with some kind of insight that indicates you do understand anything about anything.

I'd argue I understand it BETTER than you do.

I mean, it's not like they hide the index composition
https://www.PCGS.com/prices/PCGS3000.aspx

"common date classic commemoratives' make up such a small segment that they could all drop to 0 and it wouldn't have profound bearing on the broader trend, relative to everything else that makes up the formula.
Edited by dollars
04/06/2019 10:46 pm
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