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Red Book, Blue Book, Grey Sheet, CDN, NGC, PCGS Price Guides .. Confused?

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KauaiHawaiiGuy's Avatar
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 Posted 05/04/2020  09:22 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add KauaiHawaiiGuy to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
I Collect Morgan and Peace dollars ....... raw and un-slabbed and un-graded. Most I get through ebay auctions, and I hate to pay retail for any coin I buy. I don't really understand all these value guides I mentioned and hope that this discussion gets some traction and input from those that know more than I.

I understand that supposedly the Grey Sheet is what dealers use as wholesale prices. Maybe I'm just being cheap but $18 a month for the Grey Sheet seems steep for a part time low value coin hobby collector. When I buy a coin I use one or more of the online price guides like NGC or PCGS or CDN, to determine the value for a coin and then I try and buy for 25% to 50% less, but those values are not equal, and as an example .......

Yesterday I was looking up the value for a 1924 S Peace dollar. PCGS says retail in AU-50 is $60. CDN says the same coin is $81. NGC has the same coin and grade at $77. So how do I determine 25% less? Less than what?

Also are these retail graded and slabbed prices, or raw coin prices, or a combination of both? Is one more accurate than the other?

And last, I've never even seen a Red Book or Blue Book, and are they better than online sources, and if so, where do they fit into this question of determining coin values?

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USSID18's Avatar
5464 Posts
 Posted 05/04/2020  10:23 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add USSID18 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
In my opinion, they are all estimates and ballpark figures. When I'm in the market for a specific coin, I check all those resources. The last one I check is ebay, to see what it recently sold for. You determine the market. It's only worth whatever you pay for it.
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jpbone's Avatar
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1959 Posts
 Posted 05/04/2020  10:34 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jpbone to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I do what USSID18 does. These are price GUIDES. Emphasis on "guide". Check all sources. Check ebay sold listings. Get a figure your personally comfortable with and go from there.
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Blind Squirrel's Avatar
United States
220 Posts
 Posted 05/04/2020  10:47 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Blind Squirrel to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I haven't bought coins for a long time, but have several I bought 40 years ago. Some are worth more now, while others are worth less. Some are sentimental. Since it looks like you are staying in the silver market, you are less likely to have coins drop in value. I think you are doing it the right way, and knowing the high and low prices helps in negotiating a fair price. As long as you are comfortable and honest with yourself in grading non-slabbed coins, you will do fine. Early on I used to have a difficult time admitting mine weren't the grade I would like them to be. LOL

I also agree with USSID18.
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KauaiHawaiiGuy's Avatar
United States
612 Posts
 Posted 05/04/2020  10:53 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add KauaiHawaiiGuy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
The last one I check is ebay, to see what it recently sold for.


Quote:
I do what USSID18 does ...... Check ebay sold listings.

I didn't mention the ebay check, but that's actually the first thing I do before bidding on any coin at ebay. I check the last 15 sales of the same coin, condition and grade designation (F, VF, EF, AU, and UNC, but not actual number grades like 45 or 60, since I don't buy slabbed and graded coins). Then I total together all the final sold prices and divide that by 15 to get an average sold price. I then shoot for 25% or more below that.

But as to the grading sites (NGC, PCGS, CDN), what do they base their pricing on, only TPG graded coins, or condition including raw coins? And how can PCGS see that 1924 S Peace dollar at $60 while CDN sees it at $81? Where are those prices coming from, what are they based on?
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USSID18's Avatar
5464 Posts
 Posted 05/04/2020  10:59 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add USSID18 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
what do they base their pricing on,



Quote:
Where are those prices coming from, what are they based on?


I don't know and I don't care. And even if they told us, I wouldn't believe them.
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Blind Squirrel's Avatar
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220 Posts
 Posted 05/04/2020  11:05 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Blind Squirrel to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
it's a best guess on current trends, and none of us has a crystal ball that truly can see the future. You are wise to buy silver though, as it always has value.

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tdziemia's Avatar
United States
7936 Posts
 Posted 05/04/2020  6:11 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add tdziemia to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
ebay is the market, unless you are talking high price coins.

ebay sold items search is my marker for current coin values.

1924-S Peace dollar AU-50
Median price $88, Range $78-98, n=2

AU-55
Median Price $103, Range $95-115, n=9
Edited by tdziemia
05/04/2020 7:52 pm
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Earle42's Avatar
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10034 Posts
 Posted 05/04/2020  7:41 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Earle42 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:

I don't know and I don't care. And even if they told us, I wouldn't believe them.


Agreed.

Since ebay is what people are currently paying for a coin - checking sold items is likely about the best way to get a good idea of market trends. I know od dealers who do this very thing as well.

The Red Book, though it has been around forever, always has been too high in its listed prices and are supposed to be what you would expect to spend to acquire the coin. Since the Red Book, and other printed books, are only printed once a year, they have to come up with as best a guess as they can as to what will happen during the year.

The Gray sheet comes out monthly, hence dealers like it. But when you talk with dealers, you will find a lot wisely use the Gray Sheet as a guide and not Gospel.

You can check heritage auctions for more expensive sold items as well.


As far as places like PCGS and NGC, refer to the following and find some facts which show they are not as bulletproof as their marketers want people to think. Their own product/data shows someone putting faith in these companies as THE standard/authorities of the coin hobby should make sure they have taken time to do some legitimate research/evaluation.

http://goccf.com/t/346174#2967242

http://goccf.com/t/130186
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tdziemia's Avatar
United States
7936 Posts
 Posted 05/05/2020  08:31 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add tdziemia to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Movement in precious metals pricing is also a reason why the other databases will not be accurate, but ebay will be (i.e. ebay is "real time" and there will always be a lag in those other sources).
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jafo50's Avatar
United States
175 Posts
 Posted 05/05/2020  08:39 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jafo50 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
ebay sold pricing is what you should use as a guide for pricing. The current CDN price for an AU50 1924 S Peace dollar is $60 so I'm not sure where you got the $81 figure.
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kanga's Avatar
United States
5825 Posts
 Posted 05/05/2020  09:07 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add kanga to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Maybe I'm just being cheap but $18 a month for the Grey Sheet seems steep for a part time low value coin hobby collector.

I totally agree.

If you want a good idea of what to pay for raw, low value coins, look a the results on ebay.
And remember, not what the seller is asking but what the coins actually sold for.
Just use the ADVANCED option.
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KauaiHawaiiGuy's Avatar
United States
612 Posts
 Posted 05/05/2020  10:12 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add KauaiHawaiiGuy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
The current CDN price for an AU50 1924 S Peace dollar is $60 so I'm not sure where you got the $81 figure.

https://www.greysheet.com/coin-pric...entryid=7903

I got it from here, where did you see the $60 value?

P.S. I see that there is a Lowes tracking cookie block that comes up on my laptop when I click the link, maybe not on yours, but if it does, just give it a temporary OK to get it to go to the CDN site where my $81 comes from.
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jafo50's Avatar
United States
175 Posts
 Posted 05/05/2020  10:39 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jafo50 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply



Quote:
https://www.greysheet.com/coin-pric...entryid=7903

I got it from here, where did you see the $60 value?


P.S. I see that there is a Lowes tracking cookie block that comes up on my laptop when I click the link, maybe not on yours, but if it does, just give it a temporary OK to get it to go to the CDN site where my $81 comes from.



The column that you're looking at is the retail price according to CDN. The greyed out column in the middle is the Greysheet price which you referenced in your original post. That being said I think the ebay SOLD pricing is a good barometer to the fair market value for a coin.
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CitationSquirrel's Avatar
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1026 Posts
 Posted 05/05/2020  11:23 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add CitationSquirrel to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Pricing has always been a pain in my opinion.

FWIW, here is what I do:

I buy a single greysheet every year. This gives me a good general idea of wholesale prices. I also have a RedBook (I might buy one every five or ten years). It gives me a general idea on what full-blown retail is. The real price is somewhere in between. If I'm still really interested, I may look at ebay auction results. I occasionally look at PCGS. I then take all those numbers and make an education determination as to what I feel a good price range is.

Of course, by the time I do all that, the coin is gone and I get to do it all over again with the next coin I like.
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KauaiHawaiiGuy's Avatar
United States
612 Posts
 Posted 05/05/2020  12:12 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add KauaiHawaiiGuy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
The column that you're looking at is the retail price according to CDN. The greyed out column in the middle is the Greysheet price which you referenced in your original post.

Well there's the answer to our two different prices. As I said in my original post that I thought $18 a month was a bit steep for a hobby collector, and therefore I am unable to see the grey sheet wholesale column whereas you must be subscribed to grey sheet.
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