Survival Rate Of 1909-S VDB Cents (And Other Coins)

the estimates may be off since no one can know exactly how many of a given date survive

I suspect a good portion of that 89.7% actually does still exist, but merely no longer circulates

precious metal coins are more subject to melting than are subsidiary coins

surveys have found that about 1% of circulating coins stop circulating each year, with some of those saved in collections, some discarded as trash, and others so damaged that banks send them back to the mint where they are destroyed or melted

and then you have Zincolns that self destruct into dust

Herein is the reason circulating coinage has such a high attrition; misadventure. If a coin is sitting in a safety deposit box it is relatively invulnerable to misadventure of any kind. So long as the owner lives and pays the rent it is highly secure and will survive for years and years.

But coins in circulation are out there. They change hands frequently and are always being counted and recounted. They ride around in pockets of children and can literally drop through any crack, tear. or hole. People just living their day to day lives cause mayhem to the odds of a coin suffering misadventure. In 1910 most of the '09-S VDB's that hadn't been hoarded as many were circulated and attrition rates were about 2.5% on these until 1945 when they had all been removed from circulation. When coins left circulation their chances for survival soared.

Nobody really knows how many there are but most people choose to believe that the services have already graded almost all of them. I seriously doubt that this is true and will not be until almost every specimen above AG condition has changed hands about three times. In another 60 years the pops will be "right" but won't account for thousands of coins that have been lost in the interim.

A lot of the unaccounted for '09-S VDB's are just culls and very low grade. Such coins aren't worth the cost of grading. I would define this coin as being only those that are identifiable.

Coins protected by high prices have a much lower attrition. But they still suffer misadventure and loss. Even a 1% attrition adds up after 115 years and it was much higher while many of them were still circulating.

A dealer once told me a story about some folks that had like 10 SVDB's in a cigar box when their house burned down. They brought them to him but he said they were complete goners.

Kladking I would argue against your statement on low grade 09s- vdb would easily sell for 200 to 300 dollars. Right now

They are in grandpa's collection, million Wheat cent hoards, old bank vaults, old estates, attics, unopened unsearched SF Bank rolls, and for sale on ebay.

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Personally, I believe the survival rate for the 1909-S VDB is much higher than 50,000. It was the first year for the newly designed cent and a lot of people saved them. It was not long after 1909 that the scarcity of the 1909-S VDB was getting noticed, and change was being scoured to find and keep them.

PCGS and NGC alone have graded over 23,500 coins.

Another Great Topic,


I too was Enthralled with The Lincoln Cents.

The 1909-S " Victor David Brenner " designed Cent was Every Collector's Dream, Back then Finding one in the " wild " was Just about the Only way A Collector Might Rescue an Example.

The 1955 Double Die was My First Love of the Lincoln Cent Series......

There was No Internet like Now, Brick and Mortar Shops were Also Another way to Score....... I Really Enjoyed reading Here about Theories on Where one Might Find a 1909-S VDB Lincoln Wheat cent.

I Too believe the Old School Collector's make up a Very Large Portion of These and Many More KEY Dated Coinages from days gone bye, Many Collectors do Not Certify or Slab their Coins, This Group or Percentage of These collectors In My Opinion Have Coins the General Public, Unlike the TPG's, Have NOT and Will Not see the Real numbers of Population, Till The Wards Change over Time,..........