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How Will The Great Silver Rise Of 2025 And 2026 Affect Survival Rates?

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Pillar of the Community

United States
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 Posted 05/02/2026  09:08 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add LibertyEagle20 to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
Silver hit unprecedented highs in the last 6-9 months. I kept hearing most refiners were only accepting .999 and better silver. Was anyone melting junk silver too? It may be too soon to know, but do you think the great run up had any significant affect on survival rates of US coins? Any particular series?

My guess would be IF any stuff got melted down it was likely more common stuff (1922,23 Peace dollars, 1921 Morgan's,1964 coins,etc). Seems unlikely people would be throwing AU/BU examples of less common classic coins in the melting pot. So overall , I doubt there's much impact. What do you think?

Edit: Thinking back on this, maybe it will affect some series of coins for anyone collecting circulated examples. I'm sure someone was (or still is) planning to melt some 90% they have sitting around. For example, maybe people were still melting Franklins, roosevelts, Mercury dimes, non key walking liberties,etc. Not saying those semi-less common coins will be super valuable. But maybe someone looking to put together a circulated set of something like the Franklin halves or merc dimes will have a harder time finding some of the coins in the series?
Edited by LibertyEagle20
05/02/2026 9:11 pm
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Greasy Fingers's Avatar
United States
7005 Posts
 Posted 05/02/2026  10:06 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Greasy Fingers to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
My guess would be IF any stuff got melted down it was
At the time I was thinking of maybe those 5oz pucks of the ATB set. My self personally I picked up several years ago for @ or under $20/oz.
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Ballyhoo's Avatar
United States
1613 Posts
 Posted 05/02/2026  10:47 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ballyhoo to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
A sad reality is that when junk silver shows up in mass quantities over a short period, and still qualifying for melt, most dealers simply do not have the time to look for varieties and errors. I would surmise that many key dates likewise get overlooked as well. However, I haven't seen a rise in coin prices to match that of the bullion market, yet.
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jbuck's Avatar
United States
187702 Posts
 Posted 05/04/2026  2:16 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
An interesting discussion. We need to remember to revisit our predictions after a few years have passed.
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United States
218 Posts
 Posted 05/04/2026  7:45 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add samoth to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Good question.

This happened before about 45 years ago, so what does precedent tell us? Was anyone active (or alive) in the hobby then? $50 in 1980 is over $200 today. Was there mass melting of AR back then?

I'd think the same question would apply to gold as well. Generic double eagles were under $300 around 2000... that's around 20x in 25 years.
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Vector Ze's Avatar
United States
464 Posts
 Posted 05/04/2026  8:10 pm  Show Profile   Check Vector Ze's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add Vector Ze to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I can't directly answer the question, but this looks like a place for me to drop some related opinions.

First, I absolutely LOATHE the term junk silver!

But what bothers me the most is the reasoning behind turning 90% (that's what I call it) into bars and rounds. There has been an established market for a couple of generation in the trade of 90% US coinage INTACT, at bullion prices.

How does it even make economic sense to spend the extra money to melt, refine, assay, and manufacture bullion rounds and bars? Each step of the way costs money and cuts into any perceived "profits".

Go to any site that deals in metals, and you will find 90% coinage for sale, and most of them also buy coins. They are traded AS bullion. So where is the urgency to destroy them?

Back when I was working and silver stacking, I bought several thousand dollars, face value, in US 90% coinage. I looked at every single coin and filled out all but the rarest of coins in albums from that "junk silver".

Some people have a burning itch to melt 95% Cu Cents, supposedly to profit from the price of copper in them. But, just like silver coins, copper cents are routinely traded intact. Even if it were to become legal, what is the point?
Is it a deep down destructive desire?
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oriole's Avatar
Canada
5239 Posts
 Posted 05/04/2026  9:16 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add oriole to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Well, from the perspective of my LCS in Canada, they were melting lots of "junk" silver before the refiners stopped taking it (a lot of Canadian stuff is 80%), and now they can't melt it nor can they sell enough of it directly to their customers. So yes, it is a problem.

But the evidence suggests that the lower grade and common stuff is going, and may go even faster if the refiners start taking it again.
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jbuck's Avatar
United States
187702 Posts
 Posted 05/05/2026  08:30 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
How does it even make economic sense to spend the extra money to melt, refine, assay, and manufacture bullion rounds and bars? Each step of the way costs money and cuts into any perceived "profits".
It makes sense to me if the silver is going to be used for an industrial purpose. But for stacking? No way, better to keep intact.
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panzaldi's Avatar
United States
18644 Posts
 Posted 05/05/2026  09:23 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add panzaldi to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
unless a coin is damaged, it still has collector value over melt regardless of the grade. I dont see the reason to melt a silver coin. if silver goes up so does the coin. if silver goes down there is floor based on the collector value. I would think that anyone who melts a coin that has collector value over and above its melt, is throwing $$ down the toilet. silver will go up, and silver will down. thats the only constant.
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NumisRob's Avatar
United Kingdom
17903 Posts
 Posted 05/05/2026  10:05 am  Show Profile   Check NumisRob's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add NumisRob to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
In 1980 I believe a lot of those 1960s and early 1970s Pinches and Franklin Mint sets of silver medallions were melted. They were originally sold for far more than the silver value, and when demand fell and people tried selling them in the late 70s nobody was interested. The 1980 surge in silver prices gave everyone a chance to get rid of them. Some sets that you couldn't give away in 1978 are practically unobtainable now.
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