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Who Determines Key And Semi-Key?

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 Posted 04/15/2020  12:57 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add Henry M Smith to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
I am well familiar with the terms key and semi-key, but is there an official list of such coins? If I were to believe ebay I could probably find a current year coin being called a key coin. That may be an exaggeration, but it is not that far off.
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Numis-Northerner's Avatar
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 Posted 04/15/2020  1:21 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Numis-Northerner to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The way I have define key date is...

Key date = hardest to acquire date/lowest mintage date/most expensive date.

Semi key date = second or third hardest to acquire date/lowest mintage date/most expensive date.
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Spence's Avatar
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 Posted 04/15/2020  1:58 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Spence to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@hms, if you use the search box in the upper left hand part of your screen with the keywords KEY AND SEMI KEY, you will find many previous threads on CCF with this sort of discussion. I'm not saying that it isn't a topic worth revisiting, but seeing what others have thought over the past 10+ years here can be enlightening. Here is one of my faves:

http://goccf.com/t/85839

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Earle42's Avatar
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 Posted 04/15/2020  2:10 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Earle42 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
There is no official organization of people who decide what a key is vs. what is not.

The situation is one of common sense where the least available coin become the most wanted by people: The key. Usually lowest mintages and surviving specimens determine if someone "sees" the coin as a key or semi key. Harder to find coins form the set are called semi-keys. There are discussions held on forums concerning different specialists' opinions whether or not specific dates "should" be considered (by everyone) as semi-keys or not.

A twist to this scenario has been indirectly created by slabbing companies.

Since coin slabbing companies post the records of what they have slabbed at specific grades, the hobby can find which coins are harder to find in higher grades regardless of mintages.

Sometimes there just are not great numbers of a specific coin surviving in a high grade. So people who enjoy the slab+coin branch of the hobby as their primary focus could possibly have their own ideas of key and semi-key slab+coins.

Of course if the slabbed coin is broken out of the slab, the Beanie Baby Effect takes over. The assigned value/status disappears b/c, since there is no scientifically repeatable method used by the companies to assign a grade, the coin is never guaranteed to be assigned the same grade/label it had. So what may have been considered a key slab+coin has its "status" go up in slab-numismatic smoke.


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Edited by Earle42
04/15/2020 2:28 pm
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KenKat's Avatar
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 Posted 04/15/2020  4:04 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add KenKat to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The specifics depend on the series but usually the key date is the coin that is far and away the most difficult aka expensive for a particular series. 09-S VDB for Lincoln cents, 16-D for Mercury dimes, etc. Semi-keys are more informal but usually represent a small number of additional coins in a set that are more difficult / rarer than the rest.

No set definition really.
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jbuck's Avatar
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 Posted 04/15/2020  4:26 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Who Determines Key And Semi-key?
The market.

Or more accurately, the marketer.
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Coinfrog's Avatar
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 Posted 04/15/2020  6:40 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Coinfrog to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
It also depends on the grade of the coins in question. The 1909-SVDB may be the top key of the regular-issue circulated Lincoln set, but it's not even close among collectors of MS-65RD Lincolns.
Edited by Coinfrog
04/15/2020 6:43 pm
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Numis-Northerner's Avatar
Canada
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 Posted 04/15/2020  7:09 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Numis-Northerner to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
.It also depends on the grade of the coins in question. The 1909-SVDB may be the top key of the regular-issue circulated Lincoln set, but it's not even close among collectors of MS-65RD Lincolns.





Also remember, lower mintages don't always mean harder to find, a fine example is the 1948 silver dollar.
Only 18000 made but assuming you have the money then there is almost always one for sale, because of the survival rate and the short time spent in circulation (most pieces were sought after even in 1948). Despite the fairly easy accessibility it will still run you at least $1000 for a straight graded example because of the popularity and that for a date set, it's the only example that will be fairly pricey.


The same could be argued for the 1909 S vdb cent, there are coins out there with much lower mintages, and MUCH lower survival rates that will only cost you a fraction of what an 09' s vdb would. If you define 'key date' as the most expensive date in a series, then it really is decided by the market.
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 Posted 04/15/2020  8:03 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add T-BOP to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
'' Who determines the difference between Key and Semi-Key ''
I always thought it was a locksmith !
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sel_69l's Avatar
Australia
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 Posted 04/15/2020  8:14 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Who determines the key and semi keys? - the market.

If grades are same, (say MS-60), for a particular coin type,
market demand is in proportion to market value,
averaged out over hundreds of sales

Catalog values are determined from market research.
Edited by sel_69l
04/15/2020 9:05 pm
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tdziemia's Avatar
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 Posted 04/15/2020  8:26 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add tdziemia to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Question 1. Anybody
Question 2. No

But the tdz algorithm goes like this, and it gives the same results for any series, no matter who applies it:
1. rank order from high to low the current median selling price (last 12 months) in the PCGS database at VF-35 of all date/mint combinations, (no errors) in a series. Why VF-35? Because (a) it is the midpoint in the grading scale, and (b) it is more realistic to a larger number of collectors than MS grades. For series which are lacking in data at this grade (Morgans for example), increase the grade to the point where there are at least 10 examples in he last two years in the database for the key grades.

2. The keys are the top 1% of grade/mint combinations after rank ordering, rounding up. I believe this gives two "keys" for LWC, and probably 1 for every other U.S. series.

3. The semi-keys are the next 2.5%, rounding up. In case of near-ties on the semi-keys (difference of 10% of value in VF-35), include both.

Simple rules, everyone gets the same result.
Edited by tdziemia
04/15/2020 8:58 pm
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 Posted 04/16/2020  10:14 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add DBM to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply


Quote:
Who Determines Key And Semi-key?
After spending way too many hours on ebay I believe it's the same people people who determine rare and scarce.
"Dipping" is not considered cleaning...
-from PCGS website
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 Posted 04/17/2020  10:44 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add just carl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Who Determines Key And Semi-key?

I do. So what about that?
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