Are Current Overall Coin Prices For Classic US Coins A Good Value Or Overpriced?

In my opinion, when we say something is "up", generally we mean the dollar amount it costs. But dollars aren't the same anymore. There are now so many dollars 'created' out of thin air that they have diluted in value, too many of them chasing too few real goods, prices thus inflate. So whatever it is that seems "up" (in my other world it is classic cars, baseball cards, real estate) in fact is the same, it's just dollars are worth less.

Yes it's really just inflation, except that I think 'luxury goods' like rare coins, cars, watches, real estate, are up more percentage-wise than regular stuff (official inflation rate right now is about 8%, but upper-crust stuff is way higher). Basically rich people eventually vacuum up all the excess (kinda the opposite of 'trickle-down') so whatever they buy, that's the stuff that inflates the most.

If magically the money supply shrinks, and national debt gets paid down, and dollars become scarce again, so too prices on all this stuff will come down, but seems highly unlikely to me.

I stopped buying classic U.S. coins. I'll wait until prices get more reasonable. If they don't I'll collect other coins.

You have to remember coins are not a necessity, people don't need them. Right now you have collectors and speculators. If the prices go down a little speculative buyers tend to get scared (like what happened with the Morgan and Peace dollars) and they flood the market. Which causes a loop, lower prices equal more sellers as they don't want to lose value, which causes prices to drop further. With collectibles this tends to cause the high/low market usually experienced. I'm in for the long haul so I look for what doesn't have a crazy premium. Yes I still get coins but classics aren't priced what I feel is good, so avoiding those (for now) while coins from Portugal and modern bullion are currently reasonable so I'm getting those.

I really think people need to stop thinking in terms of "dollars=value", and think more in terms of "if I sold this, what could I buy with the same money"? Everyone where I live is highly pleased with the price of their house having doubled in the last few years, but then why don't they sell and grab the profit? Because you have to live somewhere, and all the other houses have doubled too.

So if you sold your "overpriced" coin, what could you buy with that money that is equally valuable? I bet nothing more impressive than that coin.

This poll is a bit on the ridiculous side. As with the PCGS 3000, it is too broad a swipe. For example,

Are 1858-S Seated quarters overpriced? Yes. But they have always been overpriced. If you want one you have to pay the price set by the market. The more important matter is whether you want one bad enough to pay for it. 25 years ago I wanted one, and ended up with five. That was enough to satisfy my longing for 1858-S quarters for the rest of my life. It had nothing to do with appreciation in value and everything to do with California history.

I had to do a double take on the date of the above reply. I had thought virtually all shows, large and small, have been open since Winter FUN was successfully held the very beginning of January 2022. As I read show reports on coin forums, it seems attendance has universally been gangbusters all this year.

As for LCS's, I also sense most have reopened across the country (though in Florida, I've been spoiled, since all businesses have been allowed to be open since around July 2020!)

You make me laugh!

Steve

@Winesteven and @hfjacinto, We're going to have to agree to disagree here. I'm not interested in the politics of anything, much less COVID, but there is a COVID impact on coin shows and dealers. What we see in the marketplace may depend more on our age and vantage point than anything entirely objective.

I am part of a whole generation of older dealers who closed up shop or are in the process of doing so. Local shops are reopening, but not all of them. Larger shows have returned, but not all of them. There is an economic impact from the COVID era. And COVID was a large driver in these decisions.

My wife and I closed up our business (buyer-side agency) and sold not only our remaining inventory, but also our personal collections. It took four dealers to absorb our inventory, and two dealers and two long-time collectors to absorb our personal collections. Our inventory wasn't that large. Our personal collections were pretty run of the mill, and hardly market-impacting. Why did it take so many to absorb them? Their carrying capacity was not large enough to take on more. This is a function of credit, liquidity, interest rates, market risk, and signs that the market is slowly becoming more risk-aversive.

A combination of things right now, including COVID, wars, inflation, economic changes, and trade/supply shortages, are impacting the market. Many of us who have been around the game for 45/50+ years have seen this a couple times before, and are too old (and too tired) to ride out another roller coaster.

For us, and I suspect others, the future doesn't look as good as the present market. It takes time to rebound, and we don't have that time. That's why we exited the market now. Others, who are much younger, may see the future differently.

I would only urge a few things to ponder:
If the older dealers like us are retiring, are the older collectors our age also pondering retirement? If so, what will their collections (and lack of future collecting) do to the market?
Why is the ANA choosing right now to de-accession their surplus coins? Why not wait another couple years? What motivates doing this right now?
Why did the Harry Bass Jr. Foundation pick right now to de-accession its fantastic gold collection and place it up for auction? Why not wait another couple years? What motivates doing this right now?
Where are the younger Millennial and Generation Z dealers? I started dealing coins in my teens. Where are the young guns who will replace my generation of dealers? (I know there are a few, but not nearly as many as the number of retiring dealers.) The same dynamic exists for collectors, more are retiring than starting.

I believe that we are in an investment bubble, and that includes coin prices. Regardless of local economic conditions, ebay (for better or for worse) has become the market of choice, and a large component of any pricing structure.

Again, you may see things very differently from a different vantage point. I definitely respect your views, and I'm not seeking to persuade you to my viewpoint. I only seek for you to consider that others are choosing to exit the market right now for a variety of reasons, and the one reason none of us can change is aging out of the market. Is the older crowd choosing now as the time for exiting the market an opportunity, or is it a cause for concern? You will need to make that determination for yourself. As for my wife and I, we're out. We used the money from the coins to fix up our small ranch property. We plan to put it on the market and then ride off into the sunset.

Thanks for indulging us!