Buffalo Nickel Value Versus Total Mintage Question

@Ty Survival rates? How does a coin die? I know that precious metal coins were melted from time to time or called back like gold in the 1930s, but how would a Buffalo nickel not "survive"?

Don't forget the nickelodeon - movies cost five cents. I wonder if a lot of them "died" during WWII when nickel was needed for the war, but I don't recall reading anything about a large melting.

@hord, this complexity that you are discovering is something that I think makes coin collecting more fun. Determining a coin's value is more than just looking up the mintage numbers--understanding the history puts perspective and nuance into the value.

There were millions of Buffalos that became dateless because of heavy usage, especially in the earlier years. That alone may account for the lower survival rate of Buffalos with recognizable dates in the teens and 20's.

Late back to the party. Nothing more to add that hasn't been stated above. All great points made! Main points I had in mind that were already touched on, is early date nickels were used, heavily! As Zurie pointed out, there are millions of dateless buffs out there, majority being early dates.

There's a handful of great reference books out there if you're just delving into the world of Buffs.

"The Authoritative Reference on Buffalo nickels" is a must! CoAuthored by the late Ron Pope, Wexler, and Kevin Flynn.

The Complete Guide to Buffalo nickels by the late great David Lange is another.

I was also pleasantly surprised by the 2nd Edition " A Guide book to Buffalo and Jefferson nickels" Red Book. David Bowers talks a bit more about the day to day use of nickels in commerce, more so than some of the other reference books. Bowers also talks a bit more from the buyers standpoint on what to consider when purchasing.

These few are a great start, with several other great ones, but are a bit more geared towards varieties

Thanks for asking the question, I was mildly curious about that as well

Here are a few more factors in the price differentials.

The cluttered design, difficulty striking that design, older coining presses at the branch mints, and relative lack of dies shipped to the branch mints affected both quantity and quality. Denver and San Francisco had a Hobson's Choice: reduce striking pressure and strike quality to extend die life or strike for quality with normal striking pressure and use the heavily worn dies well past normal die life. in both cases, quality suffered. When these coins were placed in circulation, the apparent wear advanced quickly. That's part of what makes grading the Buffalos a bit tricky.

On top of that, die clashes are extremely common. That led to heavy die polishing to eliminate the clash marks, again reducing die details, strike quality, and contributing to what often is misjudged as circulation wear. The dangers of the coining presses then in use contributed to the heavy die polishing. The Ferracute knuckle presses in common use at the branch mints lacked any of the modern safety guards. Press operators wanted to get the polishing done quickly and as safely as possible. This led to a "get it done" attitude that wasn't particularly concerned with the appearance of the coins after the polishing. This is part of the reason for so many abraded die varieties.

Another factor was what was occurring during and right after the Buffalo series. The early years overlapped World War I, when steel was needed for the war effort. The quality of steel used in the dies wasn't what it is today. That reduced die life and strike quality. In the wake of the war, a steep recession occurred in 1921-1923, coming on the heels of the flu pandemic. Five cents was a lot of money, and the nickels circulated heavily. The economic boom that followed from 1923-1929 generated a need for more coins in commerce, and the existing coins changed hands frequently. Then came the depression of 1929-1940, and the existing nickels again were needed to put food on the table. Then came World War II, and people had a lot more important things to worry about than their pocket change.

All of this created condition rarities in the series. While a particular date may have many coins still in existence, and those with readable dates may have modest prices in lower grades, very few coins may exist above a breaking point in the grades. Consider just a few examples. A 1921-S price accelerates faster than a Formula I car by each grade increment. Weakly struck Denver coins, such as 1924-D and 1925-D and San Francisco's equivalent, the 1926-S, are regularly undergraded, and can be bought in apparent lower grades for a modest amount, but mid-graded coins can break the bank. For example, a 1926-S in VG/F/low VF can be snagged for $100-$200 or so. By EF, it is well over $1,000.

It's a fun series to collect. Take the time to study the strike qualities and things that imitate wear. It is possible to find slabbed undergraded coins at the VG-10 to F-12 level and get bitten badly by slabbed overgraded coins sold at the EF-40 level.

EDIT: I need to add one more factor. The branch mints especially, but all three mints in reality, frequently changed out one die at a time. This created mismatched die states on many coins. It can be easy to misjudge a grade when looking at a coin with high apparent wear on one side and less apparent wear on the other. That affects price considerably, if the coin is misgraded. Badly mismatched die strikes are better graded heavily or entirely by the earlier die state side.