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 Replies: 16 / Views: 1,531 |
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Valued Member
United States
173 Posts |
First a disclaimer: I know many of us collect because we enjoy the coins for many reasons other than "investment" potential. If that were the sole reason for your interest in numismatics, you would be best off investing in publicly traded funds of companies selling and buying coins and currency. However, there is always an interest in the potential premium some of what we collect may attain in the future --- it would be a nice gift to our heirs and added security to know we could sell some of our collection for a profit if the need arises. So now a quasi survey -- what of MODERN comms and NIFC in your collection you think have a chance of attaining a decent premium over original purchase price in 50 years? Why? By MODERN I will say starting in 1982 for US numismatics, for world numismatics, a little earlier - 1970. I will start: Type 1 Reverse American Silver Eagle bullion coins. Although they are NIFC and the assigned value has been completely related to their bullion value. once their is a significant change to design the chances of the coin gaining a premium increases. IN addition, many were not stored as well as other numismatic material as they were seen as silver investment and plentiful. Also silver spot price fell a few years after their debut in 1986 so I imagine some initial buyers more into it for "investment" abandoned the series. A nicely toned high grade bullion ASE would have additional attraction. Note == unsure which would do better - raw or certified. NIFC Presidential dollars in high uncirculated grade. Of all the golden dollars these are still seen time from time but usually well-circulated and issued put into circulation. As many were disappointed by the hype of the Presidential dollars the NIFC coins can be found in rolls. But again they would have to be choice uncs as even those received directly by the mint would not always be high grade. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
7273 Posts |
Other than a few comms like the American Indian/Bison I doubt many will have much of any premium. Of the stuff the mint produces, I think the following have the potential for the greatest gains. 1) Limited Release ASE- The 2019 S-ERP is still low cost compared to the 1995 W and the ERP has a lower mintage. Another coin is the V75 2021 ASE, low mintage, probable gain. 2) 2021 full set of Morgan's and Peace. Again limited mintage and due to the way the mint sold them, not everyone was able to get one. I think this set will have greater upside then the future releases with larger mintages. 3) I would look for Burnishef ASE with limited mintages. I believe the 2019 is one, these may surprise people. 4) 2019 Lincoln commemorative in satin finish and original composition. They were limited mintage, pretty nice and all the zincoins will eventually disintegrate. If you collect Lincoln's what would you rather have an original composition or a Zincoln? 5)2004/2005 high grade westward expansion nickels. I see so few in circulation and they get ugly quickly. 6) 2021 Washington crossing the Delaware quarter. I see so few, that I purchased a silver one. 7) The 1999 American Indian/Bison dollar, yes it's high mintage, but it has a large premium and has a large collector base, only comm I own that I laid over spot for. There are probably others but the above is what I have. Most modern coinage is blah, so even when available I issually ignore clad and get the silver version. Edited by hfjacinto
11/19/2023 7:36 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2335 Posts |
IMO the answer is almost none. Anything low mintage with high demand has an initial instant jump in value. If you manage to buy from the mint you make a good profit on paper. After that prices stay relatively flat. Everything else is available for less than mint prices in short order. I don't see that changing.
Edit to add: There's always the possibility that precious metals increase over the next 50years.
Edited by trdhrdr007
11/19/2023 8:14 pm
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Moderator
 United States
15392 Posts |
I say almost nothing fits into your definition. If there is going to be any significant value appreciation IMO it will come from precious metal value increases and not numismatic premiums.
There was about a 5 year run where I purchased modern commemoratives directly from the Mint. In practically every case if I has waited 6 months for the after-mint market I could have purchased them for less.
Those prices have remained flat ever since. I don't see that ever changing.
Sure, there is the occasional Mint produced product that immediately increases in value and holds there - but looking for that to happen IMO is speculation and not collecting.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
4588 Posts |
none of them
Both are produced relatively close to current demand and it is unlikely demand will increase as coins become less and less common.
Check the history of Silver Art Bars for an illustrative example. They were hot because the underlying silver value was slowly increasing and the Art content made collecting them interesting.
When Silver spiked, large quantities were melted and the market never recovered.
-----Burton 50+ year / Life / Emeritus ANA member (joined 12/1/1973) Life member: Numismatics International, CONECA Member: TNA, FtWCC, NETCC, EveryCountry (online) coin club Owned by three cats and a wife of 40+ years (joined 1983) Author: 3rd Edition of the Sample Slabs book, https://www.sampleslabs.info/ |
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Valued Member
 United States
173 Posts |
Thanks to those who did offer some possibilities. As for those who say none will --- well you may be correct but then again if you were a collector in say 1901. Buffalo nickels and Indian Head pennies would seems very common and not worth collecting unless you got one in Au or UNC condition. Of course both series had much more buying power than today but still I can imagine there were quite a few collectors then who said not to waste one's time with these coins. And think about someone in 1955 --- a circulated quarter or dime would not have had many think of collecting them except beginner ones. And in 1970 many did not think it worth keeping the 40% silver Kennedy halves or a few years later full step nickels. So although I hardly disagree with the assessment that most of these will likely gain little of a premium or even decline in value you never know. hfjacinto --- I think you mean the 2009 Lincoln cents in original composition before 1983 that were available only in proof sets. The uncirculated sets were made with the current combo of zinc covered with copper. But they were in satin finish. However high grade 2019W cents (which I have - although the proof was not high grade ended up with a bunch of hairline due to loose packaging) have attained a premium mintages are low for the series and they are well-nigh impossible to find in circulation. But the premiums will stay flat or grow very slowly as attrition will only be due to poor storage or errnatly put into circulation. Edited by coinnewcomer1
11/25/2023 7:22 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
7273 Posts |
Correct a typo on my part, 2009 not 2019.
One point to clarify, the satin finish were not proofs, they were included in the uncirculated set, and there composition was 95 % copper, 3 % zinc and 2 % tin, the original composition of the 1909 cents.
Edited by hfjacinto
11/25/2023 8:53 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21786 Posts |
I have learned from experience to shy away from modern NIFC / NCLT, because they (mostly) turn out to have poor investment performance in the numismatic re sale after market. Nevertheless, investment performance over the long term has never been a strong personal motivation for building a decent collection. Getting good value for money at the time of purchase is a strong motivation for me, because it induces me to do a lot of numismatic and price research into the background of a coin that may attract my interest With modern coins, my numismatic interest does not extend much after about 1950, when silver began to be withdrawn from the World's circulating currencies. Numismatically, my interests extend right back to the invention of coinage, about 2,600 years ago. With such wide ranging interests, bargains are much easier to find at the time of purchase, but research is essential before buying. I greatly value the opinions of the specialists here in the CCF. I regard the accumulation of bullion coins as a form of precious metal investment, A have a few Pt coins, but they have not done very well in recent times.  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4588 Posts |
The largest problem with NIFC is two-fold. One is that typically by law they have to recover the entire expense of production, from the raw materials through to the guy sweeping up the floors from the sales. And the second is that the various mints see these are major profit centers.
They're not rare enough nor collectible enough to command those same premiums in the resale market (sure, there are a few winners, but ...). So the initial purchaser takes a significant loss.
-----Burton 50+ year / Life / Emeritus ANA member (joined 12/1/1973) Life member: Numismatics International, CONECA Member: TNA, FtWCC, NETCC, EveryCountry (online) coin club Owned by three cats and a wife of 40+ years (joined 1983) Author: 3rd Edition of the Sample Slabs book, https://www.sampleslabs.info/ |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1761 Posts |
Very, very few will even keep there issued value. This is similar to the NCLT minted be our RCM. Much of the previous issues can now be obtained for less than original price. A few of limited mintage or rare varieties go against the grain.  Edited by Sharks
11/26/2023 1:16 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1374 Posts |
US Mint modern gold commemoratives will be significantly higher than today's prices. Mostly due to the increase in gold value.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
12813 Posts |
The gold commemoratives and Eagles I've purchased in the past 20 years are just about the only thing that's gained value in my collection, and that is, as others have mentioned, due to increase in the PM itself.
But I'm not collecting as an investment so that's not a problem for me.
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Moderator
United States
187702 Posts |
Quote:
But I'm not collecting as an investment so that's not a problem for me.  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5604 Posts |
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Moderator
Australia
16808 Posts |
Quote:As for those who say none will --- well you may be correct but then again if you were a collector in say 1901. Buffalo nickels and Indian Head pennies would seems very common and not worth collecting unless you got one in Au or UNC condition. Of course both series had much more buying power than today but still I can imagine there were quite a few collectors then who said not to waste one's time with these coins. And think about someone in 1955 --- a circulated quarter or dime would not have had many think of collecting them except beginner ones. And in 1970 many did not think it worth keeping the 40% silver Kennedy halves or a few years later full step nickels. So although I hardly disagree with the assessment that most of these will likely gain little of a premium or even decline in value you never know. Those examples are all circulation coins, not NCLT. Both supply and demand are different equations for NCLT. So a better analogy to study might be the historic behaviour of the only "old series" of NCLT in US coinage: Classic Commemoratives. Classic Commemoratives were typically sold for a small premium - usually not over 200% of face value. Mintages were tiny. And they gradually became popular with collectors of the day, though many started off with very low demand, and many of the later series did not reach their immediate sales targets. Prices for classic commems slowly increased over time, then hit a sudden spike in the mid to late 1980s as investors discovered them. The spike proved to be a bubble, which burst in the mid-1990s and has never really recovered. Now, compare this to modern NCLT. Mint issue price premiums are much larger - those restrike Morgan and Peace "dollars" are selling for 8000% above their face value, or 420% above the bullion value, and this seems typical for modern commemoratives. Mintages are also much larger - hundreds of thousands is typical. All of which means the popularity curve for these coins tends to be the inverse of the curve for classics: they typically start off very strong immediately on release, then weaken. So, if classic commems are struggling to regain their lost prestige as investor items after 30 years, it seems to me much much less likely that modern NCLT is going to become a trendy category over a similar timeframe. I hate to break it to people of a certain age bracket, but 1982 was 40 years ago now. Don't say "infinitely" when you mean "very"; otherwise, you'll have no word left when you want to talk about something really infinite. - C. S. Lewis
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1761 Posts |
 I sometimes purchase NCLT for more than issue price, but only to help complete a set or series eg. Canadian Commemorative proof silver dollars. There are some of limited mintage (5,000 or less) which have shot up in price (covid & discretionary money?) Most PL sets can be had for less than issue price, etc, etc, etc. Edited by Sharks
11/28/2023 3:35 pm
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Replies: 16 / Views: 1,531 |
Posted 11/19/2023 8:12 pm
