Buffalo Nickel Value Versus Total Mintage Question

Survival numbers and condition rarities. Survival rate of Buffalo nickels from the 30's are far higher than earlier years. Both dates you mentioned have a high survival rate in higher grades. Same goes for 31-s; this year was hoarded from the get go due to the general public's knowledge of a low mintage. It's common in MS, therefore carries less premium than earlier years with twice the mintage numbers.

In the 1920's thru the 1950's a nickel was a lot of money, widely used and wore out quickly. A Coke was a nickel (or six for a quarter), a bag of Fritos was a nickel. Candy bars were a nickel. Those things cost way more than that in the world we live in today.

The design of the coin didn't help. The date and devices on the Buffalo nickel simply were worn off. Hence, that is why we saw so many dateless Buffalos during their 25 years of issue and they could still be found in circulation years later. The coin did its job well!

It was still a widely used coin up into the early 1960's but then slowly faded into history as the Jefferson took hold and wore better.

The U.S. Gov't removes heavily worn coins from circulation and it "dies". Remember coins used to be worth their face value in metallic content. As a coins wears down it "falls out spec" and is subject to removal and, possibly, melting.

Collecting of roll and bag quantity of coins really took off in the U.S. after the Roaring '20s. Many 1930's dated pieces were saved in mass while earlier dates from the teens and early/mid twenties were not saved and have lower availability regardless of mintage.

There are many other factors but the two noted above are major contributors to "defying mintage numbers".

There is also the perception of rarity that causes disproportionate savings.

First year/Last year of a design.

And relative mintages... if people know ONE fact about Jefferson nickels, it's that 1950D is THE key date in the series. It was known at the time... there were plenty of 1956 news reports that "the 1950-D Nickel is rare, only 2.6 million were minted vs. 9.8 million in Philadelphia" so people looked for and saved 1950-D.

Or did they?

PCGS's survival rates are 7.8m out of 9.8m or 80% for the 1950 and 2.1m of 2.6m or 81% for the 1950-D.

BUT estimates are 166K vs. 765K in MS65 or better. It would seem that 1950D Jeffs were saved earlier and thus in better condition than their peers.

Today, a high-grade 1950 (MS65, PCGS, $28) is actually rarer than a high-grade 1950-D (MS65, PCGS, $28). Go figure. And the available populations are sufficient for the number of collectors so the prices aren't crazy.

Now, look at the Washington quarters, 1932 (first year and initially a one-year commemorative type). 25c was a lot of value during the Depression. Only rich people could save them.

1932 - 5.4m minted, 500k survive (9%), 5k (0.1%) in MS65 or higher
1932D - 437k minted, 44k survive (10%), 650 (0.1%) in MS65 or higher
1932S - 408k minted, 40k survive (10%), 500 (0.1%) in MS65 or higher


There are far more collectors than can be served by 500 or 650 coins.

As a result, the MS65 1932S has a PCGS population of 186 (62 higher), and a price guide of $3,000.

The 1932D is relatively rarer: population of 94 (10 higher), and a $12,500 guide price.

Thanks guys! Clearly I still have a lot to learn.

Thanks for the book recommendations. I really enjoyed the Bowers Guide on Lincoln Cents. Might have to check out his Buffalo nickel one as well.